2016 House Ratings: Nowhere But Up From Here
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  2016 House Ratings: Nowhere But Up From Here
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Miles
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« Reply #25 on: March 27, 2015, 11:29:21 PM »

^ I'd move FL-26 to Tossup if Taddeo gets in (she carried it with Crist).
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #26 on: March 28, 2015, 01:02:32 AM »

I would add TX-23 too (for the reasons that are already stated), but, generally expect only small Democratic gains in 2016 right now (about 5 seats). The polarization is too high and there are relatively few competitive districts. Good for Democrats that districts like CA-16 are, most likely, not endangered in Presidential year
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« Reply #27 on: March 30, 2015, 11:56:41 AM »

In the unlikely event of a Cooper retirement, TN-5 could become somewhat interesting.  It's an interesting district demographically in that it is mostly Nashville (a big city, but not quite as crazy liberal as other big cities) but has some pockets of suburbs.  It is rated D+5 and has one of the last blue dogs in right now.  If he happens to retire in a Republican wave year, I would think that there would be a chance of that seat flipping.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #28 on: March 30, 2015, 05:32:59 PM »

In the unlikely event of a Cooper retirement, TN-5 could become somewhat interesting.  It's an interesting district demographically in that it is mostly Nashville (a big city, but not quite as crazy liberal as other big cities) but has some pockets of suburbs.  It is rated D+5 and has one of the last blue dogs in right now.  If he happens to retire in a Republican wave year, I would think that there would be a chance of that seat flipping.

Polarization works both ways in the South, I doubt the GOP could hold any D+ district south of the Mason-Dixon line.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #29 on: March 30, 2015, 05:58:34 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2015, 06:17:39 PM by Nyvin »

In the unlikely event of a Cooper retirement, TN-5 could become somewhat interesting.  It's an interesting district demographically in that it is mostly Nashville (a big city, but not quite as crazy liberal as other big cities) but has some pockets of suburbs.  It is rated D+5 and has one of the last blue dogs in right now.  If he happens to retire in a Republican wave year, I would think that there would be a chance of that seat flipping.

I really doubt it.   The Republicans haven't really competed in the district since the 70's.   The reason it's D+5 is because the Democratic candidate for president is seen too left wing for Nashville by "some" and they switch parties,  the dem House candidate for the seat regularly pulls in 65%+ of the vote.  

Also it's one of the few areas in TN that both the African American and Hispanic populations are rising quite a bit, and also the college population there is increasing too.   If anything it's going to become more of a mainstream Dem seat in the future, at least until redistricting.  

If the GOP added the very conservative Williamson county to the south to the district and took away parts of Davidson they could gerrymander the district to be red.  The only way to accomplish this would be county splitting though and I think TN has some statue against that.
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« Reply #30 on: March 30, 2015, 06:26:57 PM »

In the unlikely event of a Cooper retirement, TN-5 could become somewhat interesting.  It's an interesting district demographically in that it is mostly Nashville (a big city, but not quite as crazy liberal as other big cities) but has some pockets of suburbs.  It is rated D+5 and has one of the last blue dogs in right now.  If he happens to retire in a Republican wave year, I would think that there would be a chance of that seat flipping.

I really doubt it.   The Republicans haven't really competed in the district since the 70's.   The reason it's D+5 is because the Democratic candidate for president is seen too left wing for Nashville by "some" and they switch parties,  the dem House candidate for the seat regularly pulls in 65%+ of the vote.  

Also it's one of the few areas in TN that both the African American and Hispanic populations are rising quite a bit, and also the college population there is increasing too.   If anything it's going to become more of a mainstream Dem seat in the future, at least until redistricting.  

If the GOP added the very conservative Williamson county to the south to the district and took away parts of Davidson they could gerrymander the district to be red.  The only way to accomplish this would be county splitting though and I think TN has some statue against that.

Actually, Shelby County (Memphis and suburbs) is split, with urban Memphis comprising the 9th (D+some huge number) and the rest of the county in the 7th (R+some huge number).  Shelby County as a whole is quite competitive and voted for both Governor Haslam and Senator Alexander this time around (Davidson even voted for Haslam).  The 5th is the only district in Tennessee with an at all competitive PVI.  Now, I do think that Tennessee might be pretty easy to gerrymander into 9 safely Republican districts, but lawmakers were probably worried about protecting the other 7 before they were quite as far right as they are now.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #31 on: March 30, 2015, 07:43:44 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2015, 07:51:48 PM by Nyvin »

In the unlikely event of a Cooper retirement, TN-5 could become somewhat interesting.  It's an interesting district demographically in that it is mostly Nashville (a big city, but not quite as crazy liberal as other big cities) but has some pockets of suburbs.  It is rated D+5 and has one of the last blue dogs in right now.  If he happens to retire in a Republican wave year, I would think that there would be a chance of that seat flipping.

I really doubt it.   The Republicans haven't really competed in the district since the 70's.   The reason it's D+5 is because the Democratic candidate for president is seen too left wing for Nashville by "some" and they switch parties,  the dem House candidate for the seat regularly pulls in 65%+ of the vote.  

Also it's one of the few areas in TN that both the African American and Hispanic populations are rising quite a bit, and also the college population there is increasing too.   If anything it's going to become more of a mainstream Dem seat in the future, at least until redistricting.  

If the GOP added the very conservative Williamson county to the south to the district and took away parts of Davidson they could gerrymander the district to be red.  The only way to accomplish this would be county splitting though and I think TN has some statue against that.

Actually, Shelby County (Memphis and suburbs) is split, with urban Memphis comprising the 9th (D+some huge number) and the rest of the county in the 7th (R+some huge number).  Shelby County as a whole is quite competitive and voted for both Governor Haslam and Senator Alexander this time around (Davidson even voted for Haslam).  The 5th is the only district in Tennessee with an at all competitive PVI.  Now, I do think that Tennessee might be pretty easy to gerrymander into 9 safely Republican districts, but lawmakers were probably worried about protecting the other 7 before they were quite as far right as they are now.

That's because Shelby county alone has a larger population than what a congressional district is allowed.    It has to be split.   The statute is to avoid splitting "when possible" probably, although I've never read the text.   I know Michigan does something similar.

TN-5 could be gerrymandered quite easily if you could split up Davidson co, if Davidson remains in 1 district it will most likely stay blue.

TN-9 would be borderline impossible to Gerrymander red while leaving the surrounding districts red.   Even NC style districts couldn't make that happen.  
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #32 on: March 30, 2015, 08:09:31 PM »

TN-05 easily could've been gerrymandered into a solid R seat last redistricting, but I don't think any of the current incumbents wanted have to deal with parts of urban Nashville in their districts.


Also I'll probably get around to updating my ratings later.
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« Reply #33 on: June 15, 2015, 12:15:18 PM »

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #34 on: June 18, 2015, 02:01:53 AM »

You don't think Tomblin has a shot in WV-03? Tongue
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« Reply #35 on: June 18, 2015, 03:15:22 AM »

Not editing it until he gets in. At this point he's the only one with a remote chance.
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xavier110
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« Reply #36 on: July 06, 2015, 12:21:42 PM »

I see Anna Throne-Holst has announced her challenge against Rep. Lee Zeldin in ny-01. She will trounce him in a district that Hillary will easily win. +1 for Dems there.
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Sol
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« Reply #37 on: July 08, 2015, 08:26:40 AM »

Gerrymandering TN-9 would also be illegal--it's VRA protected.
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Torie
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« Reply #38 on: July 08, 2015, 09:00:50 AM »
« Edited: July 08, 2015, 10:12:43 AM by Torie »

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.



Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge in that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-23 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #39 on: July 08, 2015, 10:02:36 AM »

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.



Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge it that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in AZ-02 and NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-24 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.

What's special about John Katko?   He's a first term House incumbent with no prior elected offices.    He's not particularly impressive.    The District is D+5 also.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #40 on: July 08, 2015, 10:06:30 AM »

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.



Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge it that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in AZ-02 and NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-24 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.

What's special about John Katko?   He's a first term House incumbent with no prior elected offices.    He's not particularly impressive.    The District is D+5 also.

Knocking out an incumbent by 20 points in a D+5 is pretty impressive to me, even in a wave year. If it had been by 5 or even 10 points, I may agree with you.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #41 on: July 08, 2015, 11:15:33 AM »

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.



Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge it that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in AZ-02 and NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-24 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.

What's special about John Katko?   He's a first term House incumbent with no prior elected offices.    He's not particularly impressive.    The District is D+5 also.

Knocking out an incumbent by 20 points in a D+5 is pretty impressive to me, even in a wave year. If it had been by 5 or even 10 points, I may agree with you.

Katko received less votes than Buerkle in 2012,  it was just Maffei's support utterly collapsing that made him win by such a big margin.    Maffei lost a full 62,740 votes from 2012 to 2014.   
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #42 on: July 08, 2015, 12:35:42 PM »

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.



Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge it that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in AZ-02 and NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-24 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.

What's special about John Katko?   He's a first term House incumbent with no prior elected offices.    He's not particularly impressive.    The District is D+5 also.

Knocking out an incumbent by 20 points in a D+5 is pretty impressive to me, even in a wave year. If it had been by 5 or even 10 points, I may agree with you.

Katko received less votes than Buerkle in 2012,  it was just Maffei's support utterly collapsing that made him win by such a big margin.    Maffei lost a full 62,740 votes from 2012 to 2014.  

Naturally. It was midterm after all. And Katko got only 8.580 votes (less then 7%) less then Buerkle in 2012. So, it's a sort of achievement. Maffey lost 62.740 votes (about 45%) between 2012 and 2014. Feel the difference...
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Brittain33
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« Reply #43 on: July 08, 2015, 01:25:40 PM »

What's the student population in the 24th district? You're going to see an exaggerated swing between off-year and regular electorates there. I think that either anti-Bush or the first Obama wave even knocked off a Republican state senator there.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #44 on: July 08, 2015, 01:47:25 PM »

What's the student population in the 24th district? You're going to see an exaggerated swing between off-year and regular electorates there. I think that either anti-Bush or the first Obama wave even knocked off a Republican state senator there.

David Valesky? He was first elected in 2004 narrowly defeating moderate Republican Nancy Hoffman (almost exclusively because Conservative candidate Tom Dadey siphooned 11% of vote)...
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Torie
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« Reply #45 on: July 08, 2015, 02:04:23 PM »

What's the student population in the 24th district? You're going to see an exaggerated swing between off-year and regular electorates there. I think that either anti-Bush or the first Obama wave even knocked off a Republican state senator there.

About 21,000 students attend Syracuse University. How many of them actually vote is another matter.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #46 on: July 08, 2015, 05:19:02 PM »

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.



Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge it that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in AZ-02 and NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-24 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.

What's special about John Katko?   He's a first term House incumbent with no prior elected offices.    He's not particularly impressive.    The District is D+5 also.

Knocking out an incumbent by 20 points in a D+5 is pretty impressive to me, even in a wave year. If it had been by 5 or even 10 points, I may agree with you.

Suzanne Kosmas also knocked off an incumbent by 20+ points in FL-24 in 2008.  Anyone remember what happened to her in 2010?
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« Reply #47 on: July 08, 2015, 05:48:13 PM »
« Edited: July 08, 2015, 07:13:52 PM by Sawx, King in the North »

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.



Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge in that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-23 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.

*Irrelevant. As long as Democrats get a good candidate, NY-24 is a toss-up. If it's a bad recruit, then Tilt R.

*You also forget that Benishek's gone back on his term limit pledge and is facing the same overperforming candidate from last time. I'm sticking with tossup on this one.

*Annette Taddeo is running in FL-26, and she wound up carrying the seat in 2014 against CLC. She takes away Curbelo's edge.

*PA-8 is probably the one where I had the most trouble deciding. Now that Petri is considering I'm more inclined to move this to Tilt R.

*I'm still waiting and seeing on NV-3 - I'm operating on the pretense that Susie Lee moves back to this race instead of NV-4.

*I'm getting huge red flags on Reed, especially after his performance in 2012. John Plumb, who seems to be something more than a Some Dude, and a fairly qualified candidate who isn't from Tompkins County, will probably make this closer than whoever faces Stefanik.

*IIRC, Democrats still have top-tier candidates, and I'm not going to just automatically give Bost entrenchment here.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #48 on: July 08, 2015, 06:35:47 PM »

What's the student population in the 24th district? You're going to see an exaggerated swing between off-year and regular electorates there. I think that either anti-Bush or the first Obama wave even knocked off a Republican state senator there.

About 21,000 students attend Syracuse University. How many of them actually vote is another matter.

True, but the popular conception at least is that they showed up against Bush twice (’04, '06) and for Obama twice, just not in 2010 or 2014.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #49 on: July 08, 2015, 06:37:48 PM »

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