Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.
Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge in that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-23 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.
*Irrelevant. As long as Democrats get a good candidate, NY-24 is a toss-up. If it's a bad recruit, then Tilt R.
*You also forget that Benishek's gone back on his term limit pledge and is facing the same overperforming candidate from last time. I'm sticking with tossup on this one.
*Annette Taddeo is running in FL-26, and she wound up carrying the seat in 2014 against CLC. She takes away Curbelo's edge.
*PA-8 is probably the one where I had the most trouble deciding. Now that Petri is considering I'm more inclined to move this to Tilt R.
*I'm still waiting and seeing on NV-3 - I'm operating on the pretense that Susie Lee moves back to this race instead of NV-4.
*I'm getting huge red flags on Reed, especially after his performance in 2012.
John Plumb, who seems to be something more than a Some Dude, and a fairly qualified candidate who isn't from Tompkins County, will probably make this closer than whoever faces Stefanik.
*IIRC, Democrats still have top-tier candidates, and I'm not going to just automatically give Bost entrenchment here.
