2016 House Ratings: Nowhere But Up From Here

[publicunofficial]

I know it's kinda gross to do this while the votes are still being counted in some races, but I wanted to beat everybody to the punch .


My criteria is simple.

1) The ratings are made without assuming anything about higher up races. For this first edition of my ratings, the 2016 presidential race might as well be Generic D vs. Generic R. Obviously the Presidential race will affect House races down the line (Hillary would make it hard for R's in New York, Rubio would make it difficult for D's in Florida, ect.) but for now I'm ignoring it. This goes for Senate and Governor races too.

2) Unless I have good reason to think otherwise, this first set of ratings is ignoring potential retirements. Mike Fitzpatrick is the only confirmed retirement so far, everything else would just be speculation on my part.

3) I have no idea who will be recruited to run in any race. As such, I won't do things like rate VA-02  as a Toss-Up because "Mark Herring could run". I will however note potential candidates that would be competitive. This goes both ways, and I won't rate races Safe D or Safe R purely because I think the opposition party will fail to find a good candidate. The Ohio Democrats will probably disappoint me in OH-14, but I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt.

4) For the uncalled races, I assume the following people will be declared the winner:
-AZ-02 for Barber
-CA-07 for Ose
-CA-16 for Tacherra
-CA-26 for Brownley
-LA-05 for Abraham
-LA-06 for Graves
-NY-25 for Slaughter

However, my ratings won't change if I prove to be wrong or not. For example, I think CA-07 will be a Toss-Up next year no matter if Ami Bera or Doug Ose is the winner.

So without further ado, here's my 2016 House ratings.




Likely D:
AZ-09 (Sinema)
CA-03 (Garamendi)
CA-09 (McNerney)
CA-26 (Brownley)
CA-36 (Ruiz)
IA-02 (Loebsack)
IL-11 (Foster)
MD-06 (Delaney)
MN-07 (Peterson)
NH-02 (Kuster)

Lean D:
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)
CA-16 (Tacherra)
CA-31 (Aguilar)
CA-52 (Peters)
MN-08 (Nolan)
NV-04 (Hardy)
NY-18 (Maloney)
NY-25 (Slaughter)

Toss-Up:
AZ-02 (Barber)
CA-07 (Ose)
FL-02 (Graham)
FL-26 (Curbelo)
IA-01 (Blum)
IL-10 (Dold)
ME-02 (Poliquin)
NE-02 (Ashford)
NH-01 (Guinta)
TX-23 (Hurd)

Lean R:
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-25 (Knight)
CO-06 (Coffman)
FL-13 (Jolly)
IA-03 (Young)
IL-12 (Enyart)
MI-01 (Benishek)
NJ-03 (MacArthur)
NY-01 (Zeldin)
NY-19 (Gibson)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NY-24 (Katko)
PA-08 (OPEN)
UT-04 (Love)
VA-10 (Comstock)

Likely R:
AK-AL (Young)
GA-12 (Allen)
IL-13 (Davis)
IN-02 (Walorski)
MI-11 (Trott)
NJ-02 (LoBiondo)
NV-03 (Heck)
NY-11 (Grimm)
OH-14 (Joyce)
VA-02 (Rigell)
WA-08 (Reichert)
WV-02 (Mooney)
WV-03 (Jenkins)


I'm working on brief paragraphs to explain my reason for each rating, and I'll probably post it within a few days. In the mean time, feel free to discuss my ratings or post your own.

[publicunofficial]

So, essentially, in neutral year - relatively small (within 10-15) gains for Democrats and return to pre-2014 situation?

In essence yes. There's only a few seats that Republicans have left to take from Democrats, and most of those seats are going to be harder to take in 2016 than they were in 2014 barring the unlikely event of another Republican wave.

That being said, retirements and recruitment will bring certain seats into play on both sides. I'm not ready to proclaim Democrats take 10 seats, but a modest gain seems like the most likely event.

[publicunofficial]

As a part time native, I can say Poliquin in 16 is going to be based on how he actually does and not party. If Collins and Snowe can be continuously re elected, even in Dem wave years, just by doing a respectable job by the whole state, then Poliquin can definitely win in just the more conservative district.

Yeah, seeing whether new, clearly-competent incumbents in unfavorable districts will be able to establish themselves will be very interesting -- people like Dold, Graham, and Poliquin. It's definitely doable -- Kirkpatrick and Peterson and Valadao prove it -- but that does not necessarily mean it will be done.

I don't think Valadao's proven anything, tbh.

[publicunofficial]

As a part time native, I can say Poliquin in 16 is going to be based on how he actually does and not party. If Collins and Snowe can be continuously re elected, even in Dem wave years, just by doing a respectable job by the whole state, then Poliquin can definitely win in just the more conservative district.

Yeah, seeing whether new, clearly-competent incumbents in unfavorable districts will be able to establish themselves will be very interesting -- people like Dold, Graham, and Poliquin. It's definitely doable -- Kirkpatrick and Peterson and Valadao prove it -- but that does not necessarily mean it will be done.

I don't think Valadao's proven anything, tbh.

Valadao's CADems top target in 2016 (not like they really have anyone else to target lol).

I'd say it's a coin flip whether he wins reelection in 2016. The district has a massive Hispanic population, but Valadao is the Republicans' number one proponent of immigration reform. For Dems, it'll be tying Valadao to the radicals in his party.

Denham and Knight would be potential targets as well.

Knight's a really bad for his district (He's a major SoCon with a history of supporting quasi-racist legislation), and I expect the Democratic presidential nominee to win the district in 2016 (Obama barely lost it in 2012, and it's a heavily  Hispanic trending district). I was expecting (like most people) Tony Strickland to win over Knight, and he would've been a much tougher opponent in this seat.

Of course, Strickland could run again the primary, probably creating another R-on-R race.

[publicunofficial]

In the unlikely event of a Cooper retirement, TN-5 could become somewhat interesting.  It's an interesting district demographically in that it is mostly Nashville (a big city, but not quite as crazy liberal as other big cities) but has some pockets of suburbs.  It is rated D+5 and has one of the last blue dogs in right now.  If he happens to retire in a Republican wave year, I would think that there would be a chance of that seat flipping.

Polarization works both ways in the South, I doubt the GOP could hold any D+ district south of the Mason-Dixon line.

[publicunofficial]

TN-05 easily could've been gerrymandered into a solid R seat last redistricting, but I don't think any of the current incumbents wanted have to deal with parts of urban Nashville in their districts.


Also I'll probably get around to updating my ratings later.

[publicunofficial]

Hardy(NV-04) is a super-duper strong candidate. Flores is the only I'd give >45% chance of beating him. She has about a 47% chance there, Mayor John Lee has 45%, and Susie Lee has 40%.

What makes you say Hardy is a strong candidate? He seems like a poor fit who just got swept in by the wave.

[publicunofficial]

Bumping my old thread (With a map!)



Safe D:
VA-04 (OPEN)
FL-10 (OPEN)

Likely D:
CA-26 (Brownley)
CA-36 (Ruiz)
CA-52 (Peters)
FL-13 (OPEN)
MD-06 (Delaney)
MN-07 (Peterson)
NY-18 (Maloney)

Lean D:
CA-07 (Bera)
CA-24 (OPEN)
IA-01 (Blum)
MN-08 (Nolan)
NV-04 (Hardy)
NH-01 (Guinta)

Toss-Up:
AZ-01 (OPEN)
CO-06 (Coffman)
FL-18 (OPEN)
FL-26 (Curbelo)
IL-10 (Dold)
IA-03 (Young)
ME-02 (Poliquin)
MI-01 (OPEN)
MN-02 (OPEN)
NE-02 (Ashford)
NV-03 (OPEN)
NY-01 (Zeldin)
NY-03 (OPEN)
NY-19 (OPEN)
NY-22 (OPEN)
NY-24 (Katko)
PA-08 (OPEN)
TX-23 (Hurd)
WI-08 (OPEN)

Lean R:
AZ-02 (McSally)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MN-03 (Paulsen)
NJ-05 (Garrett)
NY-23 (Reed)
UT-04 (Love)
VA-10 (Comstock)

Likely R:
AK-AL (Young)
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-25 (Knight)
CA-39 (Royce)
CA-49 (Issa)
CO-03 (Tipton)
FL-06 (OPEN)
IL-12 (Bost)
MI-08 (Bishop)
MT-AL (Zinke)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
PA-06 (Costello)
VA-05 (OPEN)
WA-08 (Reichert)
WV-02 (Mooney)

Safe R:
FL-02 (OPEN)

[publicunofficial]

Update; now that filing deadlines are mostly passed and some competitive primaries have shifted races a bit.



Safe D:
VA-04 (OPEN)
FL-10 (OPEN)

Likely D:
MD-06 (Delaney)

Lean D:
AZ-01 (OPEN)
CA-07 (Bera)
CA-24 (OPEN)
FL-13 (Jolly)
IA-01 (Blum)
MN-02 (OPEN)
MN-08 (Nolan)
NV-04 (Hardy)

Toss-Up:
CA-25 (Knight)
CO-06 (Coffman)
FL-18 (OPEN)
FL-26 (Curbelo)
IL-10 (Dold)
IA-03 (Young)
ME-02 (Poliquin)
MI-01 (OPEN)
NE-02 (Ashford)
NH-01 (Guinta)
NV-03 (OPEN)
NY-01 (Zeldin)
NY-03 (OPEN)
NY-19 (OPEN)
NY-22 (OPEN)
NY-24 (Katko)
PA-08 (OPEN)
TX-23 (Hurd)
UT-04 (Love)
WI-08 (OPEN)

Lean R:
AZ-02 (McSally)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MN-03 (Paulsen)
NJ-05 (Garrett)
NY-23 (Reed)
VA-10 (Comstock)

Likely R:
AK-AL (Young)
CA-10 (Denham)
CA-21 (Valadao)
CA-49 (Issa)
CO-03 (Tipton)
IL-12 (Bost)
MT-AL (Zinke)
NY-21 (Stefanik)

Safe R:
FL-02 (OPEN)


RACES TO WATCH:
CA-39 (Royce)
FL-06 (OPEN)
FL-07 (Mica)
IN-09 (OPEN)
KS-03 (Yoder)
MI-08 (Bishop)
WA-03 (Herrera Beutler)
WA-08 (Reichert)