2016 House Ratings: Nowhere But Up From Here

[Torie]

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.

Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge in that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-23 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.

[Torie]

What's the student population in the 24th district? You're going to see an exaggerated swing between off-year and regular electorates there. I think that either anti-Bush or the first Obama wave even knocked off a Republican state senator there.

About 21,000 students attend Syracuse University. How many of them actually vote is another matter.

[Torie]

What's the student population in the 24th district? You're going to see an exaggerated swing between off-year and regular electorates there. I think that either anti-Bush or the first Obama wave even knocked off a Republican state senator there.

About 21,000 students attend Syracuse University. How many of them actually vote is another matter.

True, but the popular conception at least is that they showed up against Bush twice (’04, '06) and for Obama twice, just not in 2010 or 2014.

I suppose you could tease it out of the data, but those precincts around the University (high Dem predominately white ones) gave maybe about a 4,500 vote margin (5,250 to 800) to Obama in 2008 (not all university related), and if you are looking for a drop off more than other heavily Dem precincts, you might get about 1,000 votes at most as a wild guess. So it would be minor factor. It's tough to dump competent incumbents in upstate New York in any event.