Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.
Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge it that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in AZ-02 and NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-24 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.
What's special about John Katko? He's a first term House incumbent with no prior elected offices. He's not particularly impressive. The District is D+5 also.
Knocking out an incumbent by 20 points in a D+5 is pretty impressive to me, even in a wave year. If it had been by 5 or even 10 points, I may agree with you.
Suzanne Kosmas also knocked off an incumbent by 20+ points in FL-24 in 2008. Anyone remember what happened to her in 2010?
