2016 House Ratings: Nowhere But Up From Here

[smoltchanov]

So, essentially, in neutral year - relatively small (within 10-15) gains for Democrats and return to pre-2014 situation?

[smoltchanov]

So, essentially, in neutral year - relatively small (within 10-15) gains for Democrats and return to pre-2014 situation?

In essence yes. There's only a few seats that Republicans have left to take from Democrats, and most of those seats are going to be harder to take in 2016 than they were in 2014 barring the unlikely event of another Republican wave.

That being said, retirements and recruitment will bring certain seats into play on both sides. I'm not ready to proclaim Democrats take 10 seats, but a modest gain seems like the most likely event.

And then - try to win as many governorships in 2018 as possible to make redistricting more favorable to Democrats and get a chance for getting House back in 2022?

[smoltchanov]

I would add TX-23 too (for the reasons that are already stated), but, generally expect only small Democratic gains in 2016 right now (about 5 seats). The polarization is too high and there are relatively few competitive districts. Good for Democrats that districts like CA-16 are, most likely, not endangered in Presidential year

[smoltchanov]

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.

Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge it that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in AZ-02 and NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-24 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.

What's special about John Katko?   He's a first term House incumbent with no prior elected offices.    He's not particularly impressive.    The District is D+5 also.

Knocking out an incumbent by 20 points in a D+5 is pretty impressive to me, even in a wave year. If it had been by 5 or even 10 points, I may agree with you.

Katko received less votes than Buerkle in 2012,  it was just Maffei's support utterly collapsing that made him win by such a big margin.    Maffei lost a full 62,740 votes from 2012 to 2014.  

Naturally. It was midterm after all. And Katko got only 8.580 votes (less then 7%) less then Buerkle in 2012. So, it's a sort of achievement. Maffey lost 62.740 votes (about 45%) between 2012 and 2014. Feel the difference...

[smoltchanov]

What's the student population in the 24th district? You're going to see an exaggerated swing between off-year and regular electorates there. I think that either anti-Bush or the first Obama wave even knocked off a Republican state senator there.

David Valesky? He was first elected in 2004 narrowly defeating moderate Republican Nancy Hoffman (almost exclusively because Conservative candidate Tom Dadey siphooned 11% of vote)...