2016 House Ratings: Nowhere But Up From Here

[Maxwell]

Alright. Update. Will provide a text version if you so wish.

Your map seems a bit more Dem friendly than the conventional wisdom. I would think the Pubs have an edge in NY-24 due to the quality of the incumbent, and an edge it that Cuban south Florida seat, and MI-01 probably just because the seat has a Pub lean with a Pub incumbent (although not as strong as in AZ-02 and NY-24). Arguably also in PA-08, although that is debatable, due to a deeper bench and Bucks trending a bit to the Pubs. The Heck seat probably should be moved to tilt Pub now. And is NY-24 really that much in play? Ditto that south Illinois seat, also trending Pub, and with a high profile incumbent. But it is all very early, and most are assuming that no party has a tailwind behind them in 2016.

What's special about John Katko?   He's a first term House incumbent with no prior elected offices.    He's not particularly impressive.    The District is D+5 also.

Knocking out an incumbent by 20 points in a D+5 is pretty impressive to me, even in a wave year. If it had been by 5 or even 10 points, I may agree with you.

[Maxwell]

I would say Hardy definitely an underdog, but what he lacked in ideological fit and neat packaging  (he's kind of a gaffe machine) in 2014 he made up for in terms of pounding the pavement, meeting voters, and retailing. I don't think its smart to underestimate him, even if he's not an especially strong candidate on paper.

Especially with how weak the Nevada Democratic Party, I mean, my god, they are throwing away a toss-up district that Heck used to occupy.

[Maxwell]

I would love to see Al McAffrey competitive but he wasn't in 2014 and I don't think he will be against Steve Russell, who is more moderate than expected.

If McAffrey weren't a gay and Russell got primaried, McAffrey would have a real shot.