So, what happened in FL-2 and NE-2?
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  So, what happened in FL-2 and NE-2?
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Author Topic: So, what happened in FL-2 and NE-2?  (Read 862 times)
Joe Republic
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« on: November 10, 2014, 05:26:21 AM »

Given what a shitshow 2014 turned out to be for Democrats, I was surprised to see that we actually managed to successfully unseat two GOP incumbents in GOP districts.

I know that Lee Terry had been in the news a couple times for some moronic gaffes, but come on, if that type of thing was enough to get you kicked out of office then the GOP caucus would only have about 120 members.  And I'd never even heard of Steve Southerland until last week, so I don't know what happened there.

Were Brad Ashford and Gwen Graham just that good as candidates?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2014, 05:32:55 AM »

A combination of incumbent's gaffes, more or less competitive (in principle) districts, good (and not especially liberal, and thus - tailor made for these districts) Democratic candidates, and some other factors
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Vega
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2014, 05:49:48 AM »

Lee Terry always has had close races. Especially in the past couple cycles. He had to fend off a primary challenge this year, too.

I guess this year was the straw that broke the camel's back.

Sutherland was a product of 2010, and narrowly won in 2012. I'm going to say that it was just because Gwen Graham was a good candidate and her father was Bob Graham. 
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MarkUterus
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« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2014, 02:46:24 PM »

What happened? These races show that you can't say/do brazenly ridiculous things (i.e. talk about your nice house and kids in college in saying that you're "dang straight" going to collect your paycheck during the sequester or holding an all male fundraiser) and expect to be re-elected. It's a shame in Southerland's case, because I really liked him when I met him. He's a jolly, nice guy, but he's apparently clueless in that way.
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Dereich
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« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2014, 03:06:41 PM »

For FL-2 not only was Graham a good candidate, but Southerland was an awful one. He was rude, abrasive, and his only accomplishment was sinking the farm bill. In short, a terrible fit for rural Southerners. The 2010 wave put him in the seat and then incumbency, Obama, and an average opponent kept him in it but Graham was in the right place and right time to take it away. Southerland is pretty stubborn so I expect him to run again, but the seat should be hers as long as he's her opponent. I don't think she'll keep it once a quality Republican runs though.
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Vega
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« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2014, 05:46:40 PM »

I've been wanting to say this since Graham was announced the winner....

"The panhandle is turning red hot!
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2014, 06:22:09 PM »

Good Luck for them. While Terry has a shot to win in 2016, I don't see Graham being more than a One-Term Congresswoman (Of Course, she could challenge Rubio)
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DrScholl
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« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2014, 06:52:28 PM »

Ashford and Graham were better candidates, and ran good campaigns. There's really no magic answer here.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2014, 07:34:17 PM »

Ashford and Graham were better candidates, and ran good campaigns. There's really no magic answer here.

Yep. And Terry and Southerland were terrible candidates and ran bad campaigns. Graham will probably hold on as long as she wants it, but Ashford is probably out in 2016.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2014, 07:50:14 PM »

Ashford and Graham were better candidates, and ran good campaigns. There's really no magic answer here.

Yep. And Terry and Southerland were terrible candidates and ran bad campaigns. Graham will probably hold on as long as she wants it, but Ashford is probably out in 2016.

I'd reverse that. Ashford will facing much tougher down ballot pressure at the top of the ticket than Graham will, but realistically either both will be re-elected in 2016 or neither will, and it's just to early to tell which story will be true.
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adma
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« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2014, 08:37:17 PM »

Lee Terry always has had close races. Especially in the past couple cycles. He had to fend off a primary challenge this year, too.

Yet for some reason (perhaps under some presumption that Nebraska was a GOP wash), Terry's past close calls tended to be under the pundit radar--it's only this time that pundits really started noticing that NE-2 was genuinely competitive...
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: November 10, 2014, 08:38:20 PM »

Ashford and Graham were better candidates, and ran good campaigns. There's really no magic answer here.

Yep. And Terry and Southerland were terrible candidates and ran bad campaigns. Graham will probably hold on as long as she wants it, but Ashford is probably out in 2016.

I'd reverse that. Ashford will facing much tougher down ballot pressure at the top of the ticket than Graham will, but realistically either both will be re-elected in 2016 or neither will, and it's just to early to tell which story will be true.

They both should be fine in 2016 if they could win in a year this bad.  2018 is another story if a Dem wins the Presidency again. 
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: November 10, 2014, 09:11:22 PM »

Ashford and Graham were better candidates, and ran good campaigns. There's really no magic answer here.

Yep. And Terry and Southerland were terrible candidates and ran bad campaigns. Graham will probably hold on as long as she wants it, but Ashford is probably out in 2016.

I'd reverse that. Ashford will facing much tougher down ballot pressure at the top of the ticket than Graham will, but realistically either both will be re-elected in 2016 or neither will, and it's just to early to tell which story will be true.

They both should be fine in 2016 if they could win in a year this bad.  2018 is another story if a Dem wins the Presidency again. 

IDK, the Nebraska district probably has a very strong Republican bench, and Ashford will be 66 in 2016.
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nclib
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« Reply #13 on: November 10, 2014, 09:48:32 PM »

What happened? These races show that you can't say/do brazenly ridiculous things (i.e. talk about your nice house and kids in college in saying that you're "dang straight" going to collect your paycheck during the sequester or holding an all male fundraiser) and expect to be re-elected. It's a shame in Southerland's case, because I really liked him when I met him. He's a jolly, nice guy, but he's apparently clueless in that way.

Which was which?

I know Southerland was pretty extreme, but plenty of others survived in comparable districts.
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