Cohn: GOP House majority may now be unshakable for a generation

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Or how about abolishing Congressional Districts and just making it about ranked voting.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Democrats badly need to win the governorships of PA, OH, MI, and WI in 2018.  Court ordered maps in those four states alone would likely lead to Dems picking up 12-15 seats.  

Virginia too.
Also, elect a real Democrat in New York that will help them gerrymander the state.
And creating a bipartisan redistricting commision in North Carolina by referendum would be helpful too.

You cannot put a referendum on the NC ballot to do that without it being first approved by both houses of the NC legislature twice each. Good luck with that. I wish it were possible myself.

[Mehmentum]

That's kind of a silly thing to assume, when you consider that Democrats have a chance to win back more than half the gains Republicans made this year, plus win some blue seats that Republicans hold late on in the decade. That might not result in a the House flipping, but the Republicans are more likely to lose seats than gain them in 2016.

Of course. But not about 30 they need to lose majority. THAT will require not simple wave, but massive wave

Well, 2006, 2008, and 2010 all had around that number of seat won or more by one of the parties, so I don't see how its that unrealistic.

[hopper]

Remember the GOP has a natural advantage in the US House even without gerrymandering.

Remember in 1990 nobody thought the GOP would have a US House Majority or the Dems would have the presidency for a while. Look what happened in '92 and '94. I just don't think the GOP will have the presidency until 2028 or 2032 even with  their improved ground game in 2014 its still not enough to give them the presidency in my opinion.

[hopper]

Considering the average Republican voter is in their 60s, a generation is like a decade.

No actually the average GOP voter is 50 not 60.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2005 called, it wants its dubious analysis back.

[Person Man]

2005 called, it wants its dubious analysis back.

It's only been a week and Obama is still president and they are already re delegating the Democratic party to being nothing more than a  social club for aging hipsters, stoner celebrities, hip hop artists, weird step parents  and other counterfiet "guest" americans while the rest of the country becomes a sprawl of mega churches, hummer dealerships, prisons and chic fil a s and whatever else rednecks (and suburbanites that want to be rednecks) think are sexy .

In all seriousness,  if a Republican wins in 2016 and something bad happens,  the situation could flip.

[Wisconsin+17]

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God bless America.

[Skill and Chance]

2005 called, it wants its dubious analysis back.

It's only been a week and Obama is still president and they are already re delegating the Democratic party to being nothing more than a  social club for aging hipsters, stoner celebrities, hip hop artists, weird step parents  and other counterfiet "guest" americans while the rest of the country becomes a sprawl of mega churches, hummer dealerships, prisons and chic fil a s and whatever else rednecks (and suburbanites that want to be rednecks) think are sexy .

In all seriousness,  if a Republican wins in 2016 and something bad happens,  the situation could flip.

The most ridiculous part of that narrative is that 40%+ of cultural "rednecks" still voted Democratic in 2005!

[Person Man]

2005 called, it wants its dubious analysis back.

It's only been a week and Obama is still president and they are already re delegating the Democratic party to being nothing more than a  social club for aging hipsters, stoner celebrities, hip hop artists, weird step parents  and other counterfiet "guest" americans while the rest of the country becomes a sprawl of mega churches, hummer dealerships, prisons and chic fil a s and whatever else rednecks (and suburbanites that want to be rednecks) think are sexy .

In all seriousness,  if a Republican wins in 2016 and something bad happens,  the situation could flip.

The most ridiculous part of that narrative is that 40%+ of cultural "rednecks" still voted Democratic in 2005!

Though by 2014, or even 2012, that number is probably in the low 30s, if not the 20s.

[ag]

I was surprised that there were several NY districts that were relatively close.  A slight demographic change or coat tails could swing them.    I think there are a few potentially winnable seats out there for the GOP.

This was a bad year for Dems in NY. And demographic change in NY tends to go the other way. As for coattails - in presidential years you´d get very different turnout, so that would not help. So, you would need a very strong gubernatorial candidate. Not impossible - but even then I would have to see it to believe it.

[Sbane]

They key for the Democrats to take back the house is to take back a lot of northeast/midwest districts. These are republican leaning, but not to the extent GA-12 would be. Democrats don't need to take back districts like that in order to take the house. They need to pick up actual swing districts like those in the suburban/rural midwest.

[Brittain33]

I was surprised that there were several NY districts that were relatively close.  A slight demographic change or coat tails could swing them.    I think there are a few potentially winnable seats out there for the GOP.

This was a bad year for Dems in NY. And demographic change in NY tends to go the other way. As for coattails - in presidential years you´d get very different turnout, so that would not help. So, you would need a very strong gubernatorial candidate. Not impossible - but even then I would have to see it to believe it.

If 2016 looks more like 1980, a Republican sweep is possible.

[King]

36% turnout

Literally nobody changed their minds. GOP won nobody. They simply scared people off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lets not forget Dems had a 258 seat majority after 2008 & ushered in an era of good feeling.

Clinton isnt Obama as far as South goes she is stronger than he is at the natl security level. Once we win those open Gov seats in 2018, & take back Senate, we can work on gerrymand for 2020 census.

[IceSpear]

On balance, it appears with 247 seats (with California 16 and California 7 out), the Republican majority is probably safe for a while barring a massive wave.

That's true, but considering 4 of the last 5 elections were massive waves, I don't think we can continue to refer to them as if they're a rare event.

[Lurker]

2005 called, it wants its dubious analysis back.

To be fair to the Republicans, they hadn't gerrymandered the House as badly in 2005.

[Person Man]

If 2016 goes well for Republicans, I don't see them picking up any more seats in the house and maybe 1-3 more in the Senate. I can easily see the business cycle biting down hard in 2018 and causing a lot of lost seats in 2018. If the GOP senate stays through 2018, I can see 2022 being a comeuppance, especially if Democrats didn't do too well in 2016. A 2010-2022 lifecycle would be as long as the 1994-2006 one. The reason why there was a 1955-95 Democratic Dynasty was the there were dozens of blue dogs that could work with Nixon and Reagan to get sh**t done.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A decade majority through 2020 is in the cards and a Dem senate, should we keep WH. 16/20 yrs Dem have alternated control of House of,Rep v Prez 10/10 yrs each for Senate, Dems are dominate in WH and senate, and G O P House.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Lets not forget Dems had a 258 seat majority after 2008 & ushered in an era of good feeling.

Clinton isnt Obama as far as South goes she is stronger than he is at the natl security level. Once we win those open Gov seats in 2018, & take back Senate, we can work on gerrymand for 2020 census.

Are you forgetting the all the red state Democrats who endorsed Obama because he was not Clinton back in 2008. That is only masked because of the opposition to Obama and the general recognition that Clinton is more savy. Savy doesn't mean she is not still polarizing and once the campaign starts, you will see that sentiment build back up.

Also, you will not be able to gerrymander the midwest just by winning Governorships. You have to take the state legislatures as well and Republicans have sustained themselves well in the WI, OH, MI, and PA legislatures for a good twenty years with only WI getting complete Dem control and that was for two years. You can undo the gerrymanders and force compromise maps though, or they may deadlock and throw them to the courts (which amy be preferable). Dems gain, but only a handful of seats.

[Devils30]

The next president would be wise to govern as a likeable moderate. The demographic advantage doesn't get Dems yet much above 51-52% and the GOP needs new customers outside its base.