2016 Top Democratic Targets

[Devils30]

I would have to put IA-1, NY- 11 (once Grimm is convicted), NY-24, NH-1, ME-2, NV-4, IL-10 at the top of the list. FL-26 probably belongs there too, the district is trending Democratic fast and Garcia still got 49% despite losing in 2008, 2010 and having major ethical issues. The next tier would be the NY-1, NY-21, TX-23, IL-12.

[smoltchanov]

Doubt about IL-12. It seems that like many similar downstate districts with some almost "southern" overtones, it moves away from Democratic party. After all - Enyart not simply lost: he lost by bigger margin then Barrow in GA, by double-digits...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am shocked, shocked that everybody underestimated Bost. Not.


Yea I think it is pretty much gone for the Democrats.

[Mr. Illini]

I would say IL-13 is a potential target. IL-12 does act as a southern district and it is probably lost for now. IL-13 is the type of district where turnout will really increase for a Presidential year (minorities and students).

Obviously IL-10 as well. I think Schneider will throw his hat back in the ring for that one.

[Maxwell]

I would say IL-13 is a potential target. IL-12 does act as a southern district and it is probably lost for now. IL-13 is the type of district where turnout will really increase for a Presidential year (minorities and students).

Obviously IL-10 as well. I think Schneider will throw his hat back in the ring for that one.

Yea IL-10 is going to continue to be a calamity every cycle until Bob Dold stops running.

[publicunofficial]

Reclaiming lost 2014 seats:
NV-04
IA-01
ME-02
NY-01
NH-01
TX-23
IL-10
UT-04
FL-26
NY-24

Taking Republican seats:
CA-21
CA-10
CA-25
CO-06
FL-13
NY-19
MI-01
IL-13
VA-10
IA-03
PA-08

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is way too early to do more than vaguely speculate at this point.

[IceSpear]

Blum, Hardy, and Poliquin seem like pretty clear one term wonders.

[Devils30]

I think VA-2 would go before VA-10. And Obama did win IL-12 twice so despite Enyart's problems its entirely possible Hillary would carry it.

[GaussLaw]

Blum, Hardy, and Poliquin seem like pretty clear one term wonders.

Especially Hardy.

[freepcrusher]

I think the republicans should convince Sheyman to run since it will extend their lease on the seat.

I'm not as pessimistic (though still somewhat pessimistic) about IL-12. I mean Obama won it both times and this is the first time since WWII a republican won it at the congressional level. Also, didn't Stevenson win the current IL-12 both times?

[Vega]

All of the House races that Republicans won this year will start out as at least tossups in 2016, except for NC-07, GA-12, WV-03 and maybe UT-04.

I think that puts the Democrats at great odds for breaking 200 in 2016.

[Miles]

None. Republicans are probably going to gain House seats in 2016.

[Vega]

None. Republicans are probably going to gain House seats in 2016.

Either Mary loosing really put you in the dumps or we need a sarcasm tag.

[Mr.Phips]

None. Republicans are probably going to gain House seats in 2016.

Seriously?  Where?  The only real red seat dem left is Peterson in Mn-07.

[Flake]

None. Republicans are probably going to gain House seats in 2016.

Seriously?  Where?  The only real red seat dem left is Peterson in Mn-07.

Graham, Murphy, Bradford (or whatever his name is), Nolan (that other guy in MN down south), etc.

[Miles]

I was parodying another poster

[Mr.Phips]

None. Republicans are probably going to gain House seats in 2016.

Seriously?  Where?  The only real red seat dem left is Peterson in Mn-07.

Graham, Murphy, Bradford (or whatever his name is), Nolan (that other guy in MN down south), etc.

The Nolan seat isn't red.  It went for Obama twice and even went for Kerry in 2004.

[smoltchanov]

Reclaiming lost 2014 seats:
NV-04
IA-01
ME-02
NY-01
NH-01
TX-23
IL-10
UT-04
FL-26
NY-24

Taking Republican seats:
CA-21
CA-10
CA-25
CO-06
FL-13
NY-19
MI-01
IL-13
VA-10
IA-03
PA-08

Good luck with beating Gibson in 2016. You will need tons of it. And if Republicans nominate someone like McIlhenny in PA-08, who (fiscal conservative, but almost social liberal) fits the district extremely well - to PA-08 too.

[smoltchanov]

All of the House races that Republicans won this year will start out as at least tossups in 2016, except for NC-07, GA-12, WV-03 and maybe UT-04.

I think that puts the Democrats at great odds for breaking 200 in 2016.

With present level of polarization, where the whole caucus (with at most 5-7 mavericks) votes as a if it's one person, that means solid Republican control. Democrats better do well in 2018 governor elections, otherwise their party would become "party of the coasts" and few urban hinterland metropolises in addition...

[RogueBeaver]

Here's a Politico list of Senate races. WI: Feingold. PA: Sestak. IL: Madigan or Duckworth. NV: ? NH: Hassan isn't inclined to run. FL: No one. NC: Hagan, though they don't know if she wants to run or not. OH: Long list. CO: Coffman. AZ: No idea.

[RogueBeaver]

Duckworth is apparently leaning heavily against running.

[Maxwell]

Duckworth is apparently leaning heavily against running.

That's probably good news. Duckworth strikes me as a boring campaigner.

[Lief 🗽]

Duckworth is apparently leaning heavily against running.

Good, she would lose.

[Mr. Illini]

Duckworth is apparently leaning heavily against running.

The frontrunners right now I would say are Madigan or Bustos. Tom Dart is a favorite of mine, but he's not as well known.