What was the biggest surprise in your state?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 24, 2024, 07:48:53 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  What was the biggest surprise in your state?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: What was the biggest surprise in your state?  (Read 4240 times)
Potus
Potus2036
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,841


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 11, 2014, 10:16:54 AM »

I was surprised, in a good way, that the State Senate flipped to Republican control. The House was reasonable, but the Senate caught me off guard.
Logged
dmmidmi
dmwestmi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,095
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2014, 11:00:28 AM »

Honestly? Nothing.

Snyder won by low single-digits, Peters won by a margin in the teens, Schuette and Johnson were both re-elected, none of Michigan's US House seats flipped, the GOP made marginal gains in the State House and Senate, and neither of the ballot proposals passed.

If I had to come up with something, I'd say it's that Gary Peters didn't win more counties in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Debbie Stabenow racked up healthy margins in Iron, Delta, Ontonagon, Menominee, and Schoolcraft counties (all counties Gary Peters lost), despite only outperforming Gary Peters by 4%.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,954


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2014, 11:18:03 AM »

That Coakley finished as close to Baker as she did, and similarly that neither competitive House race (MA-6 and MA-9) finished within 10 points for the Dem.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,325
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2014, 11:18:09 AM »

Hagan losing Sad
Logged
Bigby
Mod_Libertarian_GOPer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,164
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: 3.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2014, 11:24:38 AM »
« Edited: November 11, 2014, 11:31:53 AM by Bigby »

John Barrow lost. I'm pleased with the results, but I felt a little cynical about Allen's chances during August, September, and October. I guess Barrow didn't exaggerate his accent enough.
Logged
PAK Man
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 752


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2014, 11:30:30 AM »

I think the biggest surprise was that there was no net change in the Iowa Senate. Democrats went into the night with a 26-24 lead and they ended the night with a 26-24 lead; one Democrat lost reelection and one Republican lost reelection.

The Secretary of State election between Paul Pate (ex-SoS) and Brad Anderson (former guv aide) was a lot closer than I imagined, too. Pate won with less than 50% of the vote, despite being a two-term SoS in the late-90s.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,715
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2014, 11:48:25 AM »

Neither MN-7 nor MN-8 flipped, and Dayton only won by 5.5%
Logged
Liberalrocks
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,930
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2014, 12:08:18 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2014, 12:52:44 PM by Liberalrocks »

Nothing really,

Its California a democratic sweep was expected and it happened.

I guess the fact that no *statewide* republican could come within a couple of points of victory even here in California where despite massive low voter turnout could be a bit of a surprise and futures the point that the GOP is so so dead here.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2014, 12:38:21 PM »

Nothing really,

Its California a democratic sweep was expected and it happened.

I guess the fact that no republican could come within a couple of points of victory even here in California where despite massive low voter turnout could be a bit of a surprise and futures the point that the GOP is so so dead here.

A couple of the vulnerable assembly seats flipping wasn't surprising, just disappointing.

I'm surprised that Vidak and Cannella in those super super Democratic senate districts held on so handily.
Logged
Liberalrocks
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,930
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2014, 12:54:03 PM »

Nothing really,

Its California a democratic sweep was expected and it happened.

I guess the fact that no republican could come within a couple of points of victory even here in California where despite massive low voter turnout could be a bit of a surprise and futures the point that the GOP is so so dead here.

A couple of the vulnerable assembly seats flipping wasn't surprising, just disappointing.

I'm surprised that Vidak and Cannella in those super super Democratic senate districts held on so handily.

Sorry I revised my post to mean statewide offices as that was vague. Yes GOP did pick up some assembly seats in certain districts but really considering the record low turnout they could have been expected to do better. That really spells doom for them here in the immediate election cycles to come. They also  did horrible in 2010 despite the national GOP wave that year too.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2014, 01:02:12 PM »

Nothing really,

Its California a democratic sweep was expected and it happened.

I guess the fact that no republican could come within a couple of points of victory even here in California where despite massive low voter turnout could be a bit of a surprise and futures the point that the GOP is so so dead here.

A couple of the vulnerable assembly seats flipping wasn't surprising, just disappointing.

I'm surprised that Vidak and Cannella in those super super Democratic senate districts held on so handily.

Sorry I revised my post to mean statewide offices as that was vague. Yes GOP did pick up some assembly seats in certain districts but really considering the record low turnout they could have been expected to do better. That really spells doom for them here in the immediate election cycles to come. They also  did horrible in 2010 despite the national GOP wave that year too.

The problem is that they literally have no bench to recruit viable statewide candidates, and the ones they could run (Issa, Walters, random state legislator) are smart enough to not leave their districts and blow their careers.

And it's so expensive to run a statewide campaign, they tried self funders (Fiorina and Whitman) to no avail. Californians have proved they hate rich self-funders, so there goes that option. There's not much you can do.
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,566
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2014, 01:04:15 PM »

The fact that Mark Warner barely won re-election.  Besides the obvious, nothing really. 
Logged
ill ind
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 488


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2014, 01:08:34 PM »

  Despite Bruce Rauner pickung up the Governor's chair handily, the Illinois GOP could not pick up a single seat in the Assembly preserving the Democrats' veto-proof majority there.

Ill_Ind
Logged
Dixie Reborn
BeyondTruthAndIdeals
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 817
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2014, 01:12:31 PM »

Arkansas - Pryor getting Blanche'd
Alabama - Bentley winning Jefferson County
Logged
H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,112
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2014, 01:19:36 PM »

NY-25 being as close as it is.
Logged
Reaganfan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,236
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2014, 01:39:52 PM »

The fact that the Ohio Democratic Party is almost non-existent. We have almost every office. Even the Ohio Supreme Court is 6-1 Republican.
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,193
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2014, 01:48:55 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2014, 01:58:04 PM by MormDem »

CA: Jerry Brown not taking up 65% of the vote and not taking up more of the inland or Central Valley counties, totally expected  a complete blowout.

Instead Kashkari actually managed 40%

VA: Warner only narrowly holding on to his seat.
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,847
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 11, 2014, 01:53:05 PM »

Schneider lost in the 10th
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 11, 2014, 02:16:53 PM »

Nothing super surprising, Fallin's margin was a bit bigger than I could've guessed (56-41), but not really outside of the realm of expectation.

I guess the surprise then is that Dorman won NONE of the counties that Lt. Gov. Askins won when she ran for Governor 4 years ago, and yet he won a bunch of super rural counties across the state. Goes to show what a difference in campaign messaging does (Askins ran as a moderate, Dorman ran hard to the right on guns, to the center on education, and heavily against Fallin/Barresi).
Logged
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,010
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 11, 2014, 02:29:43 PM »

The Republican wave not hitting Washington at all. R's took the Senate, but that was always likely to happen.
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2014, 03:38:21 PM »

Graham winning was very unexpected to most here.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 11, 2014, 04:15:36 PM »

Probably the Republicans gaining seats in the state Senate. It wasn't a complete surprise, but was the closest thing to one.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 11, 2014, 04:19:53 PM »

Scott Walker winning by literally the exact same margin as in 2010.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,402
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 11, 2014, 04:31:56 PM »

Aside from Brownback winning, the fact that Republicans picked up seats in the House. A couple recounts are still going, but Republicans could have as much as a 98-27 majority (currently 92-33).
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 11, 2014, 04:33:02 PM »

A Tea Party guy who filed a frivolous lawsuit against the public library and says you should be required to own property in order to vote winning a Campbell County Commissioner seat by 60% to 40%.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 12 queries.