Candidate Watch

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've decided to do one thread to keep you all up to date with the latest bouts of insanity interesting campaign developments from various candidates in the General Election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Latest News:

1. Peter Law has said he "might" stand in Blaenau Gwent after all. While I don't want to say this about anyone with a brain tumour, his recent erratic behavior makes me wonder about his sanity. Either that or he loves being in the headlines ala Marsden...
Due to that I won't comment on his electoral chances.

He's left the Labour Party, meaning the Welsh Assembly Government doesn't have a majority anymore. If it collapses and there's an unholy PC-Con-LD-Ind coalition, expect to see a huge backlash against the three parties in question. If (as is more likely) Labour goes into a coalition with the LibDems again, or just runs a minority Government, I wouldn't expect a backlash.

2. The Tory M.P for Castle Point (Canvey Island, for those who don't know), Bob Spink, has played the race card. No one is suprised bearing in mind his past record.

3. The Tory candidate in Dorset South has done it again... check out his own special thread...

[afleitch]

I would expect that Labour in Wales will probably run a minority government. Scotland and Wales have a good style of concensus politics emerging and because of the fixed 4 year term it's unlikely the Welsh Labour administration will 'collapse' over 1 defection. Even if the Lib Dems pulled out in Scotland, Labour would still rumble on. Okay so few bills would pass but any reorganisation of the Executive would only occur come election time in 2007 when the voters have their say. Having said that McConnell got a lashing in the pro-Labour Daily Record today. Hospital waiting lists in Scotland are rising fast, double that of England and now higher than the old Tory levels. With the SNP swinging economically rightward (they want create an independent tax haven) and the Conservatives under McLetchie making advances in recent elections, if Labour and the Lib Dems cannot form an admin come 2007 an SNP/Conservative could become feasible. Whether it can be sold to the electorate is another thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would expect that Labour in Wales will probably run a minority government. Scotland and Wales have a good style of concensus politics emerging and because of the fixed 4 year term it's unlikely the Welsh Labour administration will 'collapse' over 1 defection.

True; I should add that most Liberal (no point in bothering to add "Dem" on the end in Wales) AM's would rather die than co-operate with the Nats or the Tories.
An unholy coalition is unlikely because it would start a civil war inside the Liberal ranks. Doesn't mean it won't happen though.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bear in mind that the SNP do best in what were once Tory strongholds.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More news...

1. The filing deadline has passed
2. Peter Law has confirmed he's standing
3. Galloway has had a run in with Salem Pax (the Baghdad Blogger) and acted in his usual way...
4. There's a load of nutty/egomaniac independents standing this year. Most will struggle to get back to their deposits.
5. Kieran Deeny (Independent in West Tyrone) has said he will never join a political party

[minionofmidas]

3. Galloway has had a run in with Salem Pax (the Baghdad Blogger) and acted in his usual way...

Filed a libel suit?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

3. Galloway has had a run in with Salem Pax (the Baghdad Blogger) and acted in his usual way...

Filed a libel suit?

Haha!

No he just acted like an arrogrant S.O.B: When George met Salem

In other Galloway related news, the Torygraph is apparently going to appeal it's libel loss, and Galloway is getting in a hissy fit about postal votes (which probably means he thinks he's going to lose).

[minionofmidas]

Which probably means Labour has more ressources and thence more to gain if both sides cheat. Which you can beat your ass both sides are doing. Postal voting in Britain seems to be a real mess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which probably means Labour has more ressources and thence more to gain if both sides cheat. Which you can beat your ass both sides are doing. Postal voting in Britain seems to be a real mess.

What he's bitching about (Labour and the Unions sending out postal votes to probable Labour voters; ie: people with English, Jewish or African names) is legal (what happend in Brum, and those convicted were just the tip of the iceberg, seems to be unusual) is perfectly legal (and all three big parties have been doing similer things in different seats) although as this is in Tower Hamlets cheating is almost certainly going on at some point.

IIRC Respect did badly with postal votes last year (they seem to prefer good old fashioned intimidation).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparantly the Tory candidate in Northampton South (mostly middle class suburbia and a top Tory target) has been seen spitting at a black security guard.

Tory candidate in race row

[minionofmidas]

If it's legal (and, yes, apparently it is) it bloody well shouldn't be.
The point is not so much the *sending out* to voters, it's the sending back to Labour rather than the election authority (whatever it's called). In other words, it's the party getting its hand on the things. Really difficult to check if *all* these ballots are genuine...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If it's legal (and, yes, apparently it is) it bloody well shouldn't be.

IMO it's not actually as bad as some of the tricks party activists do on polling day (ie: knock on doors of likely voters, offer them a lift to the polling station while asking them who they're going to vote for...) which can turn into intimidation very quicky, has been going on for years and there's never been any attempts to crack down on it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I understand that in Tower Hamlets it's being done locally (although as it's Tower Hamlets that might not be a good sign)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's hard enough with votes cast on polling day. The biggest problem with electoral fraud in the U.K is the old "vote early, vote often" imitation trick. And nothing is going to be done about that because most of the people complaining about postal votes and casting themselves in the whiter than white purer than pure role, have almost always benifited from it in the past.

[minionofmidas]

If it's legal (and, yes, apparently it is) it bloody well shouldn't be.

IMO it's not actually as bad as some of the tricks party activists do on polling day (ie: knock on doors of likely voters, offer them a lift to the polling station while asking them who they're going to vote for...) which can turn into intimidation very quicky, has been going on for years and there's never been any attempts to crack down on it.

While that is bad enough (and doesn't exist here...though I'm not sure if it's technically illegal) that does NOT violate the secrecy of the ballot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

While that is bad enough (and doesn't exist here...though I'm not sure if it's technically illegal) that does NOT violate the secrecy of the ballot.

Technically we don't actually *have* a secret ballot; there's a little number on each of 'em so they can trace it back to the voter (which is how the Brum case got proven) They have to destroy them after a year or so IIRC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Over in Bethnal Green & Bow things have got nastier... a mob of Islamic extremists have attacked a Respect meeting and apparently have issued a fatwah on Galloway, while King has been attacked by a mob of people wearing Respect badges...

A hell of a lot of hate's got stirred up there...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Tory counciller is standing against the Tories in Beckenham.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Both Galloway and King seem to have asked for police protection.
Galloway has finally issued an apology for the stuff that's happend to King this campaign; interesting that he only did so when an even nuttier group targeted him isn't it?

[Silent Hunter]

Remember that Romsey was described as 'Romana (the Tory candidate looks a bit like Mary Tamm) vs. the Redhead'?

Now, Doctor Who has crept even more into the election.

Richard Franklin, aka Captain Yates, seems to be running for the 'Silent Majority Party' in Hove.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Tory candidate in Bradford South (who's a counciller in Bradford West) is being investigated for possible postal vote fraud

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1. Retiring Blaenau Gwent M.P, Llew Smith, has predicted that Law will win. Not that it means a lot; Smith is another clapped out bitter old failure.
2. Blunkett (who's been getting about a bit recently) has told Law to stand down. He won't (his ego is too big) but IMO it's a signal that a lot of resources from the other Valleys seats are likely to be heading eastwards.
3. Norman Tebbit has attacked the Tory candidate in Thanet South (who's a former chair of the Young Conservatives) as being, wait for it this is extremely funny, too right wing.
4. A BNP candidate in the West Midlands (Warley) has said that blacks and asians born in the U.K don't have the right to call themselves British.
5. Galloway's record as an M.P has come under fire again
6. Ian Paisley has predicted that the UUP will be wiped out

[minionofmidas]

Blaenau Gwent is just about the only traditional Labour stronghold where turnout held up in 2001 IIRC. What's with this Law guy exactly? Can you give a non-brief summary?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Blaenau Gwent is just about the only traditional Labour stronghold where turnout held up in 2001 IIRC. What's with this Law guy exactly? Can you give a non-brief summary?

It's very complicated, but putting it as briefly as I can; Smith retired, an all woman shortlist was used, Law (the seat's AM at Assembly level) wants to be an MP, and is running as an Independent Labour candidate. He pulled out due to a brain tumour then suddenly re-entered the race. All very strange.

[minionofmidas]

From the BBC...
 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What exactly is an all-women shortlist? How exactly does the selection process work these days?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

About ten or so years ago, the N.E.C decided that there weren't enough women M.P's and decided to (in some cases) instruct a CLP where the M.P is stepping down (or in a seat that Labour doesn't hold) to pick the new M.P from an all women shortlist. I don't agree with this policy, neither does a clear majority of Labour members (and certainly not voters), including Maggie Jones, but things can take a while to change inside the Labour Party. All women shortlists aren't always or even usually, used (some rock solid coalfield seats in Yorkshire; Normanton, Doncaster North, have picked their new M.P's... er... prospective parliamentary candidates, from open lists) and I suspect they'll get dropped soon. Especially as certain pressure groups (*cough* OBV *cough* CRE *cough*) have been lobbying for all minority shortlists (something that even the N.E.C in it's most PC minded stage in the mid '90's won't consider from what I understand)

[minionofmidas]

So who draws up the shortlist? And who decides what seats have to use an all-women shortlist? And who draws up an open list?