IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[Lief 🗽]

If Duckworth is the nominee, then Kirk will win. I am 100% confident of that.

[henster]

If Duckworth is the nominee, then Kirk will win. I am 100% confident of that.

So corrupt banker Giannoulias came within two points of Kirk in 2010 but Duckworth a wounded Iraq War vet won't beat Kirk in a Presidential year? A lot of people on here seem to really be overestimating Kirk as a candidate.

[Maxwell]

Madigan is definitely Kirk's worse fear his second would be Duckworth. Between Madigan, Duckworth, and Bustos if I were him I'd rather run against Bustos.

Duckworth is a pretty underwhelming campaigner, Madigan is too entrenched, Bustos is neither of those things.

I have no doubt all three could defeat Kirk.

I don't disagree with that. But could is different from will. Underestimating Kirk is stupid.

[henster]

Madigan is definitely Kirk's worse fear his second would be Duckworth. Between Madigan, Duckworth, and Bustos if I were him I'd rather run against Bustos.

Duckworth is a pretty underwhelming campaigner, Madigan is too entrenched, Bustos is neither of those things.

I have no doubt all three could defeat Kirk.

I don't disagree with that. But could is different from will. Underestimating Kirk is stupid.

No, I'm being realistic. Kirk is an anonymous Republican Senator in a deep blue state who barely won in a wave year against a corrupt opponent. What makes you think he'll win against a top recruit like Duckworth or Madigan he is not Chuck Grassley he can be beaten easily.

[Maxwell]

Madigan is definitely Kirk's worse fear his second would be Duckworth. Between Madigan, Duckworth, and Bustos if I were him I'd rather run against Bustos.

Duckworth is a pretty underwhelming campaigner, Madigan is too entrenched, Bustos is neither of those things.

I have no doubt all three could defeat Kirk.

I don't disagree with that. But could is different from will. Underestimating Kirk is stupid.

No, I'm being realistic. Kirk is an anonymous Republican Senator in a deep blue state who barely won in a wave year against a corrupt opponent. What makes you think he'll win against a top recruit like Duckworth or Madigan he is not Chuck Grassley he can be beaten easily.

um... I'm not saying he'll win. I'm saying it's possible. Especially against someone who is a weak campaigner.

[henster]

IL-SEN will be the AR-SEN of that cycle, it will require a lot less money with a Madigan run.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA-SEN, WI-SEN, IL-SEN will be key in taking control as well as either NH-SEN and or FL-SEN.
All we need is candidates aside from PA and we will be in good shape should Clinton be the standard barrier.

[Vosem]

What Kirk should fear is a competent Democrat from downstate running against him. Three names quickly come to mind that fit that profile: Cheri Bustos, Mike Frerichs, and Sheila Simon. Any part of downstate being peeled away would be fatal (even if Frerichs loses to Cross, notice how close he came in 2014 of all years) -- Republicans need to landslide outside of the Chicago area to win. There are competent Chicagoland candidates -- Tom Dart and Mike Quigley are being bandied about, and I think they're both possibilities -- but they don't start with this key advantage of being able to make a play for "usually-statewide-Republican" voters from the start.

IL-SEN will be the AR-SEN of that cycle, it will require a lot less money with a Madigan run.

Madigan has declined to run statewide three times in a row (IL-Gov-'10, IL-Sen-'10, IL-Gov-'14). In no case was she ever pushed out by a stronger candidate -- she simply chose not to run. Word is she wants to be Governor, but is waiting either for an optimal year or for Speaker Madigan to retire first. I really doubt Madigan will run.

[Miles]

Geaux Joe!

[KCDem]

LOL Joe Walsh. What a clown!

[Maxwell]

Joe Walsh is actually a piece of sh**t. I don't care that he may or may not run against Mark Kirk, no skin off my back, but he's just an abysmal person and everyone should vote against him. Arch-conservatives shouldn't even like him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only things I've heard about Dart is he basically ignored the Cook County ordinance decriminalizing marijuana and just kept cracking down on it and tried to sue Craigslist over its adult ads. Hope we do better than him.

[Mr. Illini]

Geaux Joe!

Walsh 2016!

[Mr. Illini]

Duckworth "interested, open, and curious" about a run

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/224213-report-duckworth-interested-open-and-curious-about-senate-run

[Vosem]

Actually kind of excited to see Walsh run and to see Kirk destroy him. Illinois has a ridiculous, super-early primary (in, I think, February), so it shouldn't do Kirk any lasting damage, strengthen his moderate credentials, and Walsh's defeat would rule him out as a candidate in Illinois ever again.

[Ljube]

It would be interesting to see if Kirk could become the Kay Hagan of 2016: good campaign, flawed challenger, personally inoffensive, but still taken down by the environment and electorate.

The thing going against Hagan was the fact she voted with Obama 96% of the time and Obama's popularity being underwater. Kirk won't have that against him.

In addition, he has a distinct advantage over Hagan of being a true moderate able to engage in bipartisan initiatives. And if some of those initiatives become laws, that’s something he can tout in 2016.

[henster]

It would be interesting to see if Kirk could become the Kay Hagan of 2016: good campaign, flawed challenger, personally inoffensive, but still taken down by the environment and electorate.

The thing going against Hagan was the fact she voted with Obama 96% of the time and Obama's popularity being underwater. Kirk won't have that against him.

In addition, he has a distinct advantage over Hagan of being a true moderate able to engage in bipartisan initiatives. And if some of those initiatives become laws, that’s something he can tout in 2016.

Before 2014 Hagan had the same type of approvals as Kirk, she was anonymous with most voters not even knowing who she was the same with Kirk.

[Mr. Illini]

In case you missed it: Joe Walsh hints at a primary against Kirk

https://twitter.com/walshfreedom/status/533405766141898752

Run, Joe, Run!

[Mr. Illini]

Bill Foster quiet regarding running, but Dems rank him as top three

http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2014-bill-foster-mark-kirk-tammy-duckworth/?dcz=

Duckworth leads Kirk by 1 in early poll, Quinn doesn't

http://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/7/71/225623/poll-kirk-duckworth-dead-heat-potential-2016-matchup/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My pick would be Foster, he already beat a moderate Judy Biggert, Tammy Duckworth beat Joe Walsh a tea partier. 

[Vosem]

Duckworth may run, but again I think she's way overrated as a candidate. The strongest candidate in the HoR delegation, for Democrats, is Bustos. (The strongest of the statewide officials is obviously Madigan, then White, but neither of them will run, and past that Frerichs).

My pick would be Foster, he already beat a moderate Judy Biggert, Tammy Duckworth beat Joe Walsh a tea partier.  

Biggert was 75 and past her prime. Foster beat Biggert 58/42, but he beat a state Rep just 53/47 in 2014; by contrast Duckworth beat Walsh 55/45 and then a total no-name 56/44 in 2014. Their districts are identical PVI.

As another note, in a less-Democratic district than either Bustos beat a new but fairly strong incumbent 53/47 in 2012, and then faced another legitimate challenge in 2014 and beat him back 55/45. That seems to me to be a stronger record than Foster's or Duckworth's.

[Mr. Illini]

Foster is relatively boring, does not have Illinois roots, and represents a Chicagoland district.

Bustos is more dynamic, does have Illinois roots, and represents a 'downstate' district.

Bustos would be more competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In another district, Hassert's district,  Foster beat Oberweis, and then lost it in 2010. If he can beat Oberweis and Biggert, he can beat Kirk. I want Madigan and Bustos and Foster to run.

[Maxwell]

In another district, Hassert's district,  Foster beat Oberweis, and then lost it in 2010. If he can beat Oberweis and Biggert, he can beat Kirk. I want Madigan and Bustos and Foster to run.

Are you calling Oberweis a competent candidate? LOL.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In another district, Hassert's district,  Foster beat Oberweis, and then lost it in 2010. If he can beat Oberweis and Biggert, he can beat Kirk. I want Madigan and Bustos and Foster to run.

Are you calling Oberweis a competent candidate? LOL.

Holding Durbin to an 11 point win without any national help was quite an accomplishment, to be honest.