IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[Kevin]

This will be an interesting fight, with the result largely dependent on the national mood.

Duckworth seems like a strong candidate for Democrats, especially since she has a compelling story.

It's a small sample set, but when Democrats get a high-profile challenger in a left-leaning state, they do tend to beat moderate Republican incumbents.

Sheldon Whitehouse beat Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island.

Al Franken beat Norm Coleman in Minnesota.

Elizabeth Warren beat Scott Brown in Massachusetts.

Yes it's not looking good for Kirk..but the issue with all of those examples is that they were all in Democratic years.

If the GOP candidate takes back the WH in 2016 it will be interesting to see if Kirk is dragged in as well.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The thing is Chafee, Brown etc. were all well-known incumbents. Kirk is a nobody, who really needs to start getting his name known enough to actually grab a large chunk of moderate Clinton voters or else he will be buried by the Chicago machine.

His strategy for survival will be the opposite of, say, Ron Johnson; who will try and run with the GOP candidate and is less reliant on crossover votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think his tenure in House, where Majority rules, like La Hood, made him less of a tea partier.

But, in senate, where filibuster and gridlock is norm, makes him much more of a typical GOPer.

[muon2]

Duckworth has released an announcement video. This will open the door to candidates running to replace her in IL-8.

[Mr. Illini]

This will be an interesting fight, with the result largely dependent on the national mood.

Duckworth seems like a strong candidate for Democrats, especially since she has a compelling story.

It's a small sample set, but when Democrats get a high-profile challenger in a left-leaning state, they do tend to beat moderate Republican incumbents.

Sheldon Whitehouse beat Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island.

Al Franken beat Norm Coleman in Minnesota.

Elizabeth Warren beat Scott Brown in Massachusetts.

Yes it's not looking good for Kirk..but the issue with all of those examples is that they were all in Democratic years.

If the GOP candidate takes back the WH in 2016 it will be interesting to see if Kirk is dragged in as well.

The thing is that

1) We know the Democratic Presidential candidate is going to take Illinois

2) We know that even in a Republican year it is unlikely that the Democrat will receive less than 55% in the state

That means that if Duckworth runs 5 points behind the Democratic Presidential candidate in the state, she still wins.

[Free Bird]

Kirks strength is his crossover appeal. His loyalty from the base will have to be fortified by this crossover appeal in Chicago, which will clearly be Tammy's big government safe haven

[Lief 🗽]

Duckworth is terrible. I hope she loses the primary and we get someone more competent to take over her House seat.

[Maxwell]

The issue with Tammy is, despite all of her positives, there seems to be something missing with her. Despite her heroic story, she is very robotic in her speaking. She seems like a terrific candidate on paper - but the reality never connects.

I can't imagine calling her win over the DOA Joe Walsh that impressive. Joe Walsh was in a fairly Democratic district and was not only one of the most right-wing congressmen, but generally was kind of a scumbag. His days were so obviously numbered, the Democrats could've nominated a Plank of Wood and that Plank of Wood would be Congressman today.

Mark Kirk, on the other hand, while he doesn't have the war story and war reality that Duckworth faces day in and day out, has beaten the odds and does a decent job connecting with voters. I believe Democrats in Illinois can definitely do better (And Kirk is a mega hawk, so I hope they do).

[Mr. Illini]

Duckworth is terrible. I hope she loses the primary and we get someone more competent to take over her House seat.

Why do you think she is terrible?

[morgieb]

I think there's better candidates than Duckworth, but regardless with her the race still should vote Democratic. I don't think she has massive skeletons in her closet, and it's hard to see Kirk overperforming the Presidential ticket by enough to flip the race.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Kirks strength is his crossover appeal. His loyalty from the base will have to be fortified by this crossover appeal in Chicago, which will clearly be Tammy's big government safe haven

... He will have to be y'know well-known to have any crossover appeal. Otherwise he's just another generic r.

[publicunofficial]

Following Duckworth's announcement, Bustos is reportedly "not interested" in running. No word from Bill Foster or Robin Kelly.

Duckworth gets crap for not having the margins to live up to her hype, and for doing things like not going negative against Joe Walsh), but I think she beats Kirk barring a major screw-up on her part. As others have pointed out, we've learned that moderate Republicans in blue states can only run so far ahead of the Republican nominee in Presidential cycles. There's not a single GOP candidate who could even make Illinois close in 2016, especially against Hillary who might get a minor favorite son effect. I think a comparison to Gordon Smith or Lincoln Chafee is appropriate.

[Maxwell]

Following Duckworth's announcement, Bustos is reportedly "not interested" in running. No word from Bill Foster or Robin Kelly.

Duckworth gets crap for not having the margins to live up to her hype, and for doing things like not going negative against Joe Walsh), but I think she beats Kirk barring a major screw-up on her part. As others have pointed out, we've learned that moderate Republicans in blue states can only run so far ahead of the Republican nominee in Presidential cycles. There's not a single GOP candidate who could even make Illinois close in 2016, especially against Hillary who might get a minor favorite son effect. I think a comparison to Gordon Smith or Lincoln Chafee is appropriate.

I agree, actually. Democrats don't need the next super talent to knock off Kirk, they just need someone who isn't corrupt and incompetent, and what we know so far, she at least isn't the first one. We'll find out truly if she's the second one when she runs, because there's really no evidence in her career thus far one way or the other.

[Ebsy]

Do you think Bustos would make a good choice to challenge Rauner in 2018?

[moderatevoter]

Maybe Bustos will end up replacing Durbin? I recall reading she once babysat his kids as a teenager, so she's personally close to him, and Durbin will probably want to be replaced by someone from downstate Illinois. I don't see Bustos as the executive type.

[Panda Express]

Duckworth announces Monday.

Great news!

Democratic Dream Team, assemble!

Duckworth is NOT a part of any dream team. I've warmed up to her, and she can win, but she isn't going to waltz in and Blanche Kirk. Kirk is a good politician. Duckworth better not screw the pooch.

She is certainly better than say, Debbie Wasserman Schultz who is definitely not a member of a dream team. In fact, Debbie Wasserman Schultz would be on a democratic nightmare team because she is terrible.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wouldn't surprise me if Duckworth only wins Cook County and still wins...

While it's theoretically possible to get a big enough margin here to win without winning anything else, taking a Uniform Swing from 2014 Governor, from the Rauner win of 3.9% to a Duckworth win of 0.1% (Democrat +4%), points to Duckworth winning Fulton County as well. Interestingly enough, St. Clair, Alexander, and Jackson all go for Kirk in this uniform swing scenario. Quinn carried all three of these counties in his 2010 win, and Kirk carried Jackson County in 2010 but lost the other two.

[badgate]

Duckworth is terrible. I hope she loses the primary and we get someone more competent to take over her House seat.

Why do you think she is terrible?

Pervading narratives.

[Zioneer]

I think Duckworth is a good candidate; not as good as her hype, but a good, solid candidate.

[Mr. Illini]

Wouldn't surprise me if Duckworth only wins Cook County and still wins...

This is asinine and something that is repeated over and over yet very unlikely to happen.

1) It requires that she underperform Alexi in 2010, which is laughable. That was a GOP wave year and Alexi was a terrible opponent. He won 4 counties.

2) Why do you think that Duckworth is so unpopular? Kirk is a terrible candidate for downstate and Duckworth is just as liked in the suburbs as Kirk is.

I envision Duckworth taking Cook, St. Claire, Jackson, Alexander, Rock Island, Fulton, and contending Lake and Knox. If she does especially well she will have a shot at Calhoun and Whiteside Counties, but that is probably unlikely.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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Let's see what sort of swing this would require. I already showed that a 4% swing from 2014 Governor, which is Duckworth's bare minimum (a 0.1% win), gives her a victory with just two counties: Cook and Fulton. Let's see what it takes for the rest of the counties in the list above:

5% Swing (Duckworth wins by 1 full point statewide): Duckworth wins Rock Island
6% Swing: Duckworth wins Alexander
8% Swing: Duckworth wins St. Claire, Jackson

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9% Swing: Duckworth wins Knox
18% Swing (Duckworth wins by 14% statewide): Duckworth wins Lake

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13% Swing (Duckworth wins by 9% Statewide): Duckworth wins Whiteside
25% Swing (Duckworth wins by 21% statewide): Duckworth wins Calhoun

Also will calculate it for the rest of the counties won by Durbin last year:

Henderson County: 25% Swing (from 2014 Governor) needed for Duckworth win
Pulaski County: 22% Swing
Gallatin County: 31% Swing (Duckworth wins by 27% statewide)
Champaign County: 13% Swing

This suggests that Pulaski, Gallatin, Henderson, Calhoun, and Lake are out of the question for Duckworth. She is a longshot in Champaign and Whiteside, but Knox, St. Claire, Rock Island Jackson, and Alexander are very much within reach, and Cook/Fulton are required for victory.

To keep things fair, let's look at a Uniform swing from 2014 Senate as well. Durbin won by 10.9%, so on this map, Duckworth can afford a 10.9% swing away from Durbin's performance on this map. Let's see here:

Duckworth matches Durbin: Duckworth wins Cook, Fulton, Rock Island, Alexander, Jackson, St. Claire, Knox, Lake, Whiteside, Calhoun, Henderson, Pulaski, Gallatin, Champaign

1% Republican Swing (from 2014 Senate): Duckworth loses Champaign
2% Republican Swing: Duckworth loses Whiteside, Henderson
3% Republican Swing (8% Duckworth win): Duckworth loses Lake
5% Republican Swing: Duckworth loses Gallatin
6% Republican Swing: Duckworth loses Calhoun, St. Clair
7% Republican Swing: Duckworth loses Knox
8% Republican Swing: Duckworth loses Pulaski
10% Republican Swing (1% Duckworth win): Duckworth loses Jackson
12% Republican Swing (Duckworth loses by 1 full point Statewide): Duckworth loses Fulton, Rock Island
23% Republican Swing (Duckworth loses by 12 points Statewide): Duckworth loses Alexander

BTW, Kirk would need a 46% swing to win Cook.

This suggests that Duckworth will win Cook and Alexander at a bare minimum. Champaign, Whiteside, Henderson, Lake and Gallatin seem to be difficult for her, but Calhoun, St. Clair, Knox, Pulaski and Jackson are very much within reach, and Rock Island/Fulton are required for victory in addition to Cook/Alexander.

Obviously, uniform swing is not perfect. But it is a good start for analysis.

[muon2]

One of the problems with a uniform swing analysis is the upstate/downstate divide. In 2014 Quinn was particularly unpopular downstate, but Durbin was from downstate so he overperformed some of those counties. That difference was critical to elect downstater Frerichs to Treasurer.

Without Bustos, there won't be a downstater on the statewide ballot in 2016. Neither is favorite son Obama who drove up turnout in 2008 and 2012. One may have to reach back to Kerry in 2004 to get a picture of downstate Dem voting patterns. Perhaps a weighted average of Durbin '14 and Kerry '04 is a better baseline for '16.

[sg0508]

Kirk will likely need a middle/left third party candidate to take 5%.  His ceiling is very low to begin with and hundreds of thousands more Democrats will turnout in the presidential year.  It's not looking good.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Duckworth has a compelling story. Dems remember what Kirk did to Alexi Ginnoulius concerning the bank scandle, and the only ones that bought it, were voters who werent well informed, and wanted to punish the Dems in 2010.

This one will go to the Dems, since more of them will vote, this time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kirk and Ginnoulias were responsible for Tarp and Wallstreet, bailouts.

It was the military service record that was questioned, saying he was serving in Iraqi freedom, rather that stateside that Kirk lied about. Thats why Duckworth, who actually served, who lost her limbs is best to take him on, rather than Madigan.