IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising
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  IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising
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Author Topic: IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising  (Read 56432 times)
Mr. Illini
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« Reply #175 on: March 31, 2015, 11:55:32 AM »
« edited: March 31, 2015, 11:58:17 AM by Mr. Illini »

Wulrfic, I like the analysis and I think it is a good baseline to get an idea of what is going on.

I think it would be more accurate to use Kirk's 2010 map rather than Rauner's or Durbin's maps.

Durbin overperformed downstate because he is from there and that makes a big difference to people down there, which is why you see counties like Pulaski and Gallatin as more Democratic than NW counties like Whitside and Henderson. Duckworth is not as popular as Durbin downstate, although Kirk isn't all that popular down there either.

By the same token, Rauner did very well downstate, and certainly much better than Kirk will do. Quinn was painted as the Chicago machine candidate, and that puts those counties at high margins for Republicans. In reality, St. Claire and Jackson Counties are reliably Democratic and should be assumed as in Duckworth's column, especially with higher turnouts in East STL area. Also, Fulton is very inelastic. So Quinn was a terrible candidate but a high Dem floor there made it close. Yet, in 2010, Fulton was close, but Alexi won St. Claire, Jackson, and Alexander while still losing Fulton.

With Lake, I have a gut feeling that Duckworth is going to contest it, even though it is Kirk's home turf. Both of these candidates are very well-liked in the suburbs. Kirk represented portions of the northern suburbs in the House and his brand of moderate voting is perhaps more subscribed to in that area along the north shore than anywhere else in the country. Kirk has been saying some very partisan things lately that are unlike him, so we will see what impact that has. If Duckworth is nominated, it will be interesting having two candidates from the northern suburbs.

It may be silly to do at this point, but if I were to put a prediction on it today, this is what I would go for. We'll see how my prediction changes over time, assuming Duckworth is even nominated. Yet, my point that Duckworth will a) win more than just Cook and b) if not, she is screwed, stands.

Kirk vs. Duckworth

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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #176 on: March 31, 2015, 01:24:44 PM »


You don't think Duckie will carry Will or Lake Counties? I'd say that with Presidential turnout/coattails, those counties would go at least plurality Dem if Duckworth won. I mean yeah, Kirk's a good fit for them, but I'd guess that they'd be fought to a draw. They have a history of being open to Democrats there.

It's a tough call. I do not think that they would go Dem before any of the counties that I have labeled. That said, they are very likely to vote for the Democratic Presidential nominee, but Kirk is a very good fit for the area, in fact Lake County is in love with Mark Kirk.

So take Lake County in the 2012 Presidential, it voted for Obama 53-45. Now I would agree with analyses that some have made that Lake will go to the 2016 Democrat by a similar margin with the hometown effect having largely worn off in Illinois in 2012.

So let's say Hillary wins Lake County 53-45. For Kirk to take it, he would need to get it to 49-48, and I have him labeled as plurality in Lake on the map. This means he would be running 4 points ahead of the Republican candidate in Lake County.

That is possible. In fact, likely. You will get at least 4% of north suburbanites voting for Hillary Clinton at the top and Mark Kirk underneath.

Lake is Kirk's home area, he represented half the county in Congress, and he is a staple there. I am originally from the area, and it is a very moderate Republican area and many people there think the GOP has gone too far to the right and put him up on a pedestal as the "last sane Republican." Take issue with it all you want, but that's how it is.

Thinking more about it, Duckworth would probably perform better in Will than in Lake, even though Lake is the one that is increasingly looking even more Democratic. Duckworth certainly has a shot in either, but so does Kirk. It will be interesting to see how they behave in 2016 at all levels, just like it was interesting to see how they performed in 2014.
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« Reply #177 on: April 01, 2015, 12:08:07 AM »

Duckworth has a good biography, but I think Illinois should have someone more liberal than 166/188 most liberal for Democrats in the House.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #178 on: April 01, 2015, 01:59:27 AM »

Duckworth has a good biography, but I think Illinois should have someone more liberal than 166/188 most liberal for Democrats in the House.

I wouldn't worry too much, she'll be pushed heavily to vote how the majority of Democrats are by leadership. In the House, her vote didn't really matter so she did whatever. Just like how Kirk is supposedly "moderate," but he rarely breaks with the GOP rank and file.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #179 on: April 03, 2015, 01:48:52 PM »

Quote
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http://www.kirk.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=1374
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #180 on: April 03, 2015, 04:02:24 PM »


And there goes Kirk masquerading as a moderate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #181 on: April 03, 2015, 06:03:41 PM »



When the Dems were in Senate majority, he played the filibuster game, right along with McCain, who also mascarade as a moderate.

His votes back when the GOP were in the minority on equal pay and minimum wage, and blocking judges has and will come up.

And there goes Kirk masquerading as a moderate.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #182 on: April 04, 2015, 04:44:44 PM »

Illinois will not interpret it as Kirk being a moderate, just him not being an Evangelical nut, which we already knew he was not.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #183 on: April 05, 2015, 01:10:03 PM »

Also, Bustos isn't running. So forget about Kirk having a non-Chicagoland challenger:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-tammy-duckworth-senate-mark-kirk-20150330-story.html#page=1
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #184 on: April 10, 2015, 12:14:41 PM »

Foster out.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #185 on: April 10, 2015, 12:31:24 PM »

Having served in Iraq combat as opposed to Kirk, serving stateside, Duckworth, seems to odds on favorite to beat Kirk, having lost limbs in combat duty.

But, if Robin Kelly gets in, she will be a formable opponent and will have an equal chance of winning against Kirk.
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Torie
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« Reply #186 on: April 10, 2015, 12:47:42 PM »

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.
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muon2
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« Reply #187 on: April 10, 2015, 01:28:47 PM »

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

The race to compare is the 2006 battle for IL-6. It was an open seat due to the retirement of Henry Hyde. The district had been drifting Dem, especially the northern half, and today it makes up the majority of Duckworth's IL-8.




The race pitted Duckworth against Roskam and the media attention on Duckworth's compelling life story made it the top race in the US that year and the particular focus of the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel. Despite the media attention, money and Dem wave, Roskam won a close contest 51% to 49%. Roskam's superior campaign skills compared to Duckworth were a key factor in the race.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #188 on: April 10, 2015, 02:20:29 PM »

Why all ambitious Democrats suddenly decided to clear the field for Duckworth? She is hardly an imposing figure and as mentioned elsewhere her campaign skills are suspect.
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Torie
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« Reply #189 on: April 10, 2015, 02:37:38 PM »

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

The race to compare is the 2006 battle for IL-6. It was an open seat due to the retirement of Henry Hyde. The district had been drifting Dem, especially the northern half, and today it makes up the majority of Duckworth's IL-8.

The race pitted Duckworth against Roskam and the media attention on Duckworth's compelling life story made it the top race in the US that year and the particular focus of the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel. Despite the media attention, money and Dem wave, Roskam won a close contest 51% to 49%. Roskam's superior campaign skills compared to Duckworth were a key factor in the race.

OK, the old IL-06 had a Dem PVI in 2008 of 3%, and Duckworth ran 4 points behind the PVI. That's not enough to close the gap, particularly since Obama probably ran about 4 points or so ahead of the partisan baseline in that area of Illinois due to his favorite son status (maybe offset some by the 2006 Dem wave). So putting aside whatever incumbency advantage Kirk has, he's in trouble based on that indicator. Have Duckworth's skills in you judgment as a politician improved since then, or not?
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #190 on: April 10, 2015, 03:10:42 PM »

Why all ambitious Democrats suddenly decided to clear the field for Duckworth? She is hardly an imposing figure and as mentioned elsewhere her campaign skills are suspect.

Foster himself cited the desire to avoid a messy primary, and that Democrats should just focus on taking down Kirk. Bustos never seemed interested in the first place. The only other person who has shown interest is Robin Kelly, who hasn't said she's out yet.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #191 on: April 10, 2015, 03:16:36 PM »

My guess is Bustos is holding out until 2020, if Durbin retires (as I think he will).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #192 on: April 10, 2015, 05:20:25 PM »

My guess is Bustos is holding out until 2020, if Durbin retires (as I think he will).

Speaking of Durbin, the Senate Dems really seem to be throwing him under the bus lately. What did he do to earn their ire?
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« Reply #193 on: April 10, 2015, 05:34:03 PM »

My guess is Bustos is holding out until 2020, if Durbin retires (as I think he will).

Speaking of Durbin, the Senate Dems really seem to be throwing him under the bus lately. What did he do to earn their ire?

If you're referring to Reid picking Schumer over Durbin, 538 said it was because Schumer has a closer voting record to Reid's, and also because Schumer is better at fundraising and has a bigger social media presence.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #194 on: April 10, 2015, 05:37:22 PM »

My guess is Bustos is holding out until 2020, if Durbin retires (as I think he will).

Speaking of Durbin, the Senate Dems really seem to be throwing him under the bus lately. What did he do to earn their ire?

If you're referring to Reid picking Schumer over Durbin, 538 said it was because Schumer has a closer voting record to Reid's, and also because Schumer is better at fundraising and has a bigger social media presence.

Not just that, but multiple people are encouraging Murray to challenge Durbin for the #2 spot, which seems odd considering he was a loyal soldier for not running against Schumer.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #195 on: April 10, 2015, 06:50:34 PM »

My guess is Bustos is holding out until 2020, if Durbin retires (as I think he will).

Speaking of Durbin, the Senate Dems really seem to be throwing him under the bus lately. What did he do to earn their ire?

If you're referring to Reid picking Schumer over Durbin, 538 said it was because Schumer has a closer voting record to Reid's, and also because Schumer is better at fundraising and has a bigger social media presence.

Not just that, but multiple people are encouraging Murray to challenge Durbin for the #2 spot, which seems odd considering he was a loyal soldier for not running against Schumer.

It seems to me that Durbin's milquetoast personality, better suited for an old Senate where Republicans had leaders like Howard Baker and Bob Dole, and his Old White Guy status have more to do with that than anything he did.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #196 on: April 10, 2015, 08:57:28 PM »

My guess is Bustos is holding out until 2020, if Durbin retires (as I think he will).

D-trip no doubt also wants her in IL-17 for as long as possible as well. She's a great fit for the area and that is a district that, while it is D+8, has potential to be elastic. Don't want Bobby Schilling getting any more ideas.

She'll be a great person to step in when Durbin retires.
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muon2
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« Reply #197 on: April 11, 2015, 04:02:30 AM »

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

The race to compare is the 2006 battle for IL-6. It was an open seat due to the retirement of Henry Hyde. The district had been drifting Dem, especially the northern half, and today it makes up the majority of Duckworth's IL-8.

The race pitted Duckworth against Roskam and the media attention on Duckworth's compelling life story made it the top race in the US that year and the particular focus of the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel. Despite the media attention, money and Dem wave, Roskam won a close contest 51% to 49%. Roskam's superior campaign skills compared to Duckworth were a key factor in the race.

OK, the old IL-06 had a Dem PVI in 2008 of 3%, and Duckworth ran 4 points behind the PVI. That's not enough to close the gap, particularly since Obama probably ran about 4 points or so ahead of the partisan baseline in that area of Illinois due to his favorite son status (maybe offset some by the 2006 Dem wave). So putting aside whatever incumbency advantage Kirk has, he's in trouble based on that indicator. Have Duckworth's skills in you judgment as a politician improved since then, or not?

The IL state PVI is listed as D+8, but most think that is overpriced due to its reliance on the 2008 and 2012 results, both of which featured favorite son Obama at the top of the ticket. The actual PVI could be three points less. So let's assume the state as a whole is D+5.

Incumbency is worth a few points, and three is not a bad estimate, so give that to Kirk. Duckworth doesn't seem to have changed much as a candidate since '06. If she again runs 4 points behind her PVI and Kirk gets 3 points for incumbency then the race starts at R+2. Hillary would need to win nationally by 2 points or more to have enough coattails to carry Duckworth.
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Torie
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« Reply #198 on: April 11, 2015, 08:14:51 AM »

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

The race to compare is the 2006 battle for IL-6. It was an open seat due to the retirement of Henry Hyde. The district had been drifting Dem, especially the northern half, and today it makes up the majority of Duckworth's IL-8.


The race pitted Duckworth against Roskam and the media attention on Duckworth's compelling life story made it the top race in the US that year and the particular focus of the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel. Despite the media attention, money and Dem wave, Roskam won a close contest 51% to 49%. Roskam's superior campaign skills compared to Duckworth were a key factor in the race.

OK, the old IL-06 had a Dem PVI in 2008 of 3%, and Duckworth ran 4 points behind the PVI. That's not enough to close the gap, particularly since Obama probably ran about 4 points or so ahead of the partisan baseline in that area of Illinois due to his favorite son status (maybe offset some by the 2006 Dem wave). So putting aside whatever incumbency advantage Kirk has, he's in trouble based on that indicator. Have Duckworth's skills in you judgment as a politician improved since then, or not?

The IL state PVI is listed as D+8, but most think that is overpriced due to its reliance on the 2008 and 2012 results, both of which featured favorite son Obama at the top of the ticket. The actual PVI could be three points less. So let's assume the state as a whole is D+5.

Incumbency is worth a few points, and three is not a bad estimate, so give that to Kirk. Duckworth doesn't seem to have changed much as a candidate since '06. If she again runs 4 points behind her PVI and Kirk gets 3 points for incumbency then the race starts at R+2. Hillary would need to win nationally by 2 points or more to have enough coattails to carry Duckworth.

You double counted there. If the state PVI is inflated by 3 points, that includes Duckwork's CD (I suspect the PVI was more inflated there because the favorite son boost was more pronounced in the collar counties, but whatever), so its PVI was really even in 2006, and she ran one point behind. So you have a Dem PVI for the state of 5 points, less 3 points for incumbency, less one point for Duckworth, leaving her ahead by one point, if Hillary runs even with the PVI.
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muon2
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« Reply #199 on: April 11, 2015, 02:13:35 PM »
« Edited: April 11, 2015, 02:22:47 PM by muon2 »

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

The race to compare is the 2006 battle for IL-6. It was an open seat due to the retirement of Henry Hyde. The district had been drifting Dem, especially the northern half, and today it makes up the majority of Duckworth's IL-8.


The race pitted Duckworth against Roskam and the media attention on Duckworth's compelling life story made it the top race in the US that year and the particular focus of the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel. Despite the media attention, money and Dem wave, Roskam won a close contest 51% to 49%. Roskam's superior campaign skills compared to Duckworth were a key factor in the race.

OK, the old IL-06 had a Dem PVI in 2008 of 3%, and Duckworth ran 4 points behind the PVI. That's not enough to close the gap, particularly since Obama probably ran about 4 points or so ahead of the partisan baseline in that area of Illinois due to his favorite son status (maybe offset some by the 2006 Dem wave). So putting aside whatever incumbency advantage Kirk has, he's in trouble based on that indicator. Have Duckworth's skills in you judgment as a politician improved since then, or not?

The IL state PVI is listed as D+8, but most think that is overpriced due to its reliance on the 2008 and 2012 results, both of which featured favorite son Obama at the top of the ticket. The actual PVI could be three points less. So let's assume the state as a whole is D+5.

Incumbency is worth a few points, and three is not a bad estimate, so give that to Kirk. Duckworth doesn't seem to have changed much as a candidate since '06. If she again runs 4 points behind her PVI and Kirk gets 3 points for incumbency then the race starts at R+2. Hillary would need to win nationally by 2 points or more to have enough coattails to carry Duckworth.

You double counted there. If the state PVI is inflated by 3 points, that includes Duckwork's CD (I suspect the PVI was more inflated there because the favorite son boost was more pronounced in the collar counties, but whatever), so its PVI was really even in 2006, and she ran one point behind. So you have a Dem PVI for the state of 5 points, less 3 points for incumbency, less one point for Duckworth, leaving her ahead by one point, if Hillary runs even with the PVI.

I think I misunderstood your reference to the old IL-6. When you said it had a 2008 PVI of D+3, I took that to mean an actual PVI going into the 2008 election. If so, it would not include Obama's win. I now take it that you are referring to Obama's win in IL-06 in 2008. I should have recognized that old IL-6 was about 2 points more Pub than the US in 2004 when I made my statement and there was a D+3 tide in 2006 (53-47 Dem share of the two party vote). That would suggest that Duckworth ran about 2 points behind the national average. Tongue
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