IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[Torie]

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

The race to compare is the 2006 battle for IL-6. It was an open seat due to the retirement of Henry Hyde. The district had been drifting Dem, especially the northern half, and today it makes up the majority of Duckworth's IL-8.


The race pitted Duckworth against Roskam and the media attention on Duckworth's compelling life story made it the top race in the US that year and the particular focus of the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel. Despite the media attention, money and Dem wave, Roskam won a close contest 51% to 49%. Roskam's superior campaign skills compared to Duckworth were a key factor in the race.

OK, the old IL-06 had a Dem PVI in 2008 of 3%, and Duckworth ran 4 points behind the PVI. That's not enough to close the gap, particularly since Obama probably ran about 4 points or so ahead of the partisan baseline in that area of Illinois due to his favorite son status (maybe offset some by the 2006 Dem wave). So putting aside whatever incumbency advantage Kirk has, he's in trouble based on that indicator. Have Duckworth's skills in you judgment as a politician improved since then, or not?

The IL state PVI is listed as D+8, but most think that is overpriced due to its reliance on the 2008 and 2012 results, both of which featured favorite son Obama at the top of the ticket. The actual PVI could be three points less. So let's assume the state as a whole is D+5.

Incumbency is worth a few points, and three is not a bad estimate, so give that to Kirk. Duckworth doesn't seem to have changed much as a candidate since '06. If she again runs 4 points behind her PVI and Kirk gets 3 points for incumbency then the race starts at R+2. Hillary would need to win nationally by 2 points or more to have enough coattails to carry Duckworth.

You double counted there. If the state PVI is inflated by 3 points, that includes Duckwork's CD (I suspect the PVI was more inflated there because the favorite son boost was more pronounced in the collar counties, but whatever), so its PVI was really even in 2006, and she ran one point behind. So you have a Dem PVI for the state of 5 points, less 3 points for incumbency, less one point for Duckworth, leaving her ahead by one point, if Hillary runs even with the PVI.

I think I misunderstood your reference to the old IL-6. When you said it had a 2008 PVI of D+3, I took that to mean an actual PVI going into the 2008 election. If so, it would not include Obama's win. I now take it that you are referring to Obama's win in IL-06 in 2008. I should have recognized that old IL-6 was about 2 points more Pub than the US in 2004 when I made my statement and there was a D+3 tide in 2006 (53-47 Dem share of the two party vote). That would suggest that Duckworth ran about 2 points behind the national average.

If the old IL-06 after factoring out the Obama favorite son effect was an even PVI, but the Dem tide in 2006 added three points, than Duckworth ran four points behind the national Dem tide in her district in 2006 (assuming no real inherent PVI change in the CD between 2006 and 2008).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Q1 2015: Kirk raises ~$1 Million, Duckworth only about ~$522,000.


http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150415/news/150419178/

So far, so much for Kirk being doomed.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Tammy Duckworth announced her candidacy on the 2nd to last day of Q1. Obviously she was soliciting some donations in the time preceding that, but give her some set-up time before comparing!! Sure, it will help Kirk in the long-run to start off with an advantage, but there's a ton of time for catch-up, especially since no one knows for sure if there will be a serious D primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quinn was relatively outspent real early and he fought the race to almost a draw. Dems are on the Chicago media all the time. I think Duckworth will stay competetive. As long as Bill Foster is staving off media attacks from the GOP, and he is appearing to do that, by her side.

[Ebsy]

Q1 2015: Kirk raises ~$1 Million, Duckworth only about ~$522,000.


http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150415/news/150419178/

So far, so much for Kirk being doomed.

[Free Bird]

Q1 2015: Kirk raises ~$1 Million, Duckworth only about ~$522,000.


http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150415/news/150419178/

So far, so much for Kirk being doomed.

I refer you to Linda McMahon

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Q1 2015: Kirk raises ~$1 Million, Duckworth only about ~$522,000.


http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150415/news/150419178/

So far, so much for Kirk being doomed.

I refer you to Linda McMahon

And Meg Whitman.

[Maxwell]

Q1 2015: Kirk raises ~$1 Million, Duckworth only about ~$522,000.


http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150415/news/150419178/

So far, so much for Kirk being doomed.

Well the thing is Blanche would've been lucky to be within margin of the error (Which Mark Kirk has been in the opinion poll that has been taken).

[Mr. Illini]

Ex-NFL LB and current State Sen. Napoleon Harris (D-Flossmoor) keeping options open

http://atr.rollcall.com/ex-nfl-linebacker-considering-illinois-senate-bid/

Bill Daley, African-American leaders urging Urban League President Andrea Zopp (D-Chicago) to run

http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/7/71/486504/sneed-urban-league-ceo-andrea-zopp-urged-run-kirks-seat

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harris or Zopp will be my preferred choice over Duckworth.

[Mr. Illini]

Harris or Zopp will be my preferred choice over Duckworth.

They are weaker against Kirk and would cost primary money.

I would vote for Duckworth regardless.

[Ebsy]

Harris or Zopp will be my preferred choice over Duckworth.

Endorsing Duckworth.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Zopp or Harris will energize the black vote; that was missing from the Ginnoulias camp; last time around.

[henster]

Zopp is basically a black female Alexi Giannoulias.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bill Daley is endorsing Zopp which I am endorsing because he is running for Gov in 2018; and he is still mad over IL Dems for endorsing Quinn; a weak inc over him in primary. Want his candidate to win in 2016.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Q1 2015: Kirk raises ~$1 Million, Duckworth only about ~$522,000.


http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150415/news/150419178/

So far, so much for Kirk being doomed.

Well the thing is Blanche would've been lucky to be within margin of the error (Which Mark Kirk has been in the opinion poll that has been taken).

we'll have to wait a year or so to get an accurate comparison on that

[RogueBeaver]

Zopp is in and will announce soon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Endorsed.

[Mr. Illini]

Why anyone would support a member of the CPS board at this point is beyond me

Duckworth is endorsed early on

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why anyone would support a member of the CPS board at this point is beyond me

Duckworth is endorsed early on

We need black candidates; I am not backing away from my support, but will endorse Duckworth if she is nominee.

I fully support Edwards of MD, too. She isnt only on the school board she is part of the Urban League, jobs for at risk  youth. Duckworth only beat tea partier Walsh. She is prone to errors and mistakes. But let the primary season begin. It wont hurt.

Lisa Madigan didnt run so we have a primary.

[Ebsy]

Mark Kirk claims about Nelson Mandela and South Africa's Nuclear Program

I thought all the nukes were dismantled in 1989.

[Mr. Illini]

Roll Call: Tilt D

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/mark-kirk-race-rating-illinois-senate/?dcz

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Roll Call: Tilt D

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/mark-kirk-race-rating-illinois-senate/?dcz

LOL at Johnson being less vulnerable than Kirk in their ratings.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Roll Call: Tilt D

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/mark-kirk-race-rating-illinois-senate/?dcz

LOL at Johnson being less vulnerable than Kirk in their ratings.

True, but even so, Tilt D seems quite generous to Kirk.

[Skye]

It's a nice analysis on the environment, but I think I'll have it as a Toss up until a poll comes out.