IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[publicunofficial]

I think people are underestimating how much the media adores Duckworth. Normally the St. Louis media market(which covers much of Southern Illinois in sort of an afterthought), only pays tangential attention to Illinois politics, but they were all over Duckworth in 2012, despite the fact that her seat is nowhere near the viewing area for our local affiliates. The Post-Dispatch and the local broadcasters are going to work themselves into a frenzy over Duckworth.

Duckworth has always been one of the most compelling candidates in every cycle where she's been a challenger. 2006 against Roskam, 2012 against Walsh both got her national press (Especially since she was running against Walsh, who couldn't go 5 words into a sentence without making a disparaging comment).

I expect her to get less press attention this time however, at least nationally. Instead of running against a severely unpopular Republican Party, or a deadbeat dad with anger issues, she'll be running against a moderate Republican who everyone generally likes.

[publicunofficial]

Following Duckworth's announcement, Bustos is reportedly "not interested" in running. No word from Bill Foster or Robin Kelly.

Duckworth gets crap for not having the margins to live up to her hype, and for doing things like not going negative against Joe Walsh), but I think she beats Kirk barring a major screw-up on her part. As others have pointed out, we've learned that moderate Republicans in blue states can only run so far ahead of the Republican nominee in Presidential cycles. There's not a single GOP candidate who could even make Illinois close in 2016, especially against Hillary who might get a minor favorite son effect. I think a comparison to Gordon Smith or Lincoln Chafee is appropriate.

[publicunofficial]

Why all ambitious Democrats suddenly decided to clear the field for Duckworth? She is hardly an imposing figure and as mentioned elsewhere her campaign skills are suspect.

Foster himself cited the desire to avoid a messy primary, and that Democrats should just focus on taking down Kirk. Bustos never seemed interested in the first place. The only other person who has shown interest is Robin Kelly, who hasn't said she's out yet.