IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[Mr. Illini]

Just over a week out of the 2014 midterms and we've already got rumors swirling in all different threads about this, one of the most intriguing races of the cycle.

This thread will serve as the grapevine.

[Mr. Illini]

Just to bring the thread to speed.

Mark Kirk (R-Highland Park) is running for re-election
http://abc7chicago.com/politics/us-sen-mark-kirk-to-run-for-re-election-in-2016-/382589/

Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates) is leaning heavily against running
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20141111/BLOGS02/141119947?template=mobile&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

Other names tossed out since last Tuesday:
Lisa Madigan (D-Chicago)
Cheri Bustos (D-Moline)
Mike Quigley (D-Chicago)
Bill Foster (D-Naperville)
Tom Dart (D-Chicago)
Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston)
Sheila Simon (D-Carbondale)
Joe Walsh (R-McHenry)

[Mr. Illini]

Just to bring the thread to speed.

Mark Kirk (R-Highland Park) is running for re-election
http://abc7chicago.com/politics/us-sen-mark-kirk-to-run-for-re-election-in-2016-/382589/

Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates) is leaning heavily against running
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20141111/BLOGS02/141119947?template=mobile&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

Other names tossed out since last Tuesday:
Lisa Madigan (D-Chicago)
Cheri Bustos (D-Moline)
Mike Quigley (D-Chicago)
Bill Foster (D-Naperville)
Tom Dart (D-Chicago)
Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston)
Sheila Simon (D-Carbondale)

Why is Simon a serious option? Wouldn't being tied to the unpopular Quinn be a huge negative?

She is much more closely tied to her father than to Quinn, and that matters downstate. That said, I don't think she's a good candidate. Her performance for comptroller was underwhelming.

To Lief's post, I am guessing you saw me talking about Dart in one of the other threads. He's an awesome candidate. The charisma is Kennedy-esque and he is a candidate that can get people excited, unlike people like Foster and Quigley, who are quite frankly very boring.

[Mr. Illini]

Just to bring the thread to speed.

Mark Kirk (R-Highland Park) is running for re-election
http://abc7chicago.com/politics/us-sen-mark-kirk-to-run-for-re-election-in-2016-/382589/

Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates) is leaning heavily against running
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20141111/BLOGS02/141119947?template=mobile&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

Other names tossed out since last Tuesday:
Lisa Madigan (D-Chicago)
Cheri Bustos (D-Moline)
Mike Quigley (D-Chicago)
Bill Foster (D-Naperville)
Tom Dart (D-Chicago)
Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston)
Sheila Simon (D-Carbondale)

Why is Simon a serious option? Wouldn't being tied to the unpopular Quinn be a huge negative?

She kept Topinka under 50%, and she's personally inoffensive. The Quinn tie would fall flat unless somehow he went down in an investigation and she was linked to it, which is highly unlikely.

She's not particularly exciting and her campaign was nearly nonexistent this year. I agree the Quinn tie is irrelevant here, but she really is not a candidate that can get people excited. I'm hoping that she, Foster, and Quigley bow out early.

The nominee is going to need to electorally be good at getting support in the suburbs and Democratic leaning areas downstate. You need an exciting candidate to do that, because Kirk is an exciting candidate, especially in the suburbs.

[Mr. Illini]

Madigan is definitely Kirk's worse fear his second would be Duckworth. Between Madigan, Duckworth, and Bustos if I were him I'd rather run against Bustos.

I think you're underestimating Bustos. Not being from Chicagoland is one huge benefit right from the start. She's proven already to be a pragmatist while still being a liberal. She's a good public speaker and she has built her career on saving manufacturing jobs. She's poyfect.

[Mr. Illini]

Geaux Joe!

Walsh 2016!

[Mr. Illini]

Duckworth "interested, open, and curious" about a run

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/224213-report-duckworth-interested-open-and-curious-about-senate-run

[Mr. Illini]

In case you missed it: Joe Walsh hints at a primary against Kirk

https://twitter.com/walshfreedom/status/533405766141898752

Run, Joe, Run!

[Mr. Illini]

Bill Foster quiet regarding running, but Dems rank him as top three

http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2014-bill-foster-mark-kirk-tammy-duckworth/?dcz=

Duckworth leads Kirk by 1 in early poll, Quinn doesn't

http://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/7/71/225623/poll-kirk-duckworth-dead-heat-potential-2016-matchup/

[Mr. Illini]

Foster is relatively boring, does not have Illinois roots, and represents a Chicagoland district.

Bustos is more dynamic, does have Illinois roots, and represents a 'downstate' district.

Bustos would be more competitive.

[Mr. Illini]

In another district, Hassert's district,  Foster beat Oberweis, and then lost it in 2010. If he can beat Oberweis and Biggert, he can beat Kirk. I want Madigan and Bustos and Foster to run.

I'm not saying that Foster could not beat Kirk, but Bustos is the better candidate.

[Mr. Illini]

Dont know much about Bustos, but my choice is Bill Foster or Madigan

You should get to know about her. She'll be a great candidate if she runs.

[Mr. Illini]

Duckworth is taking a "serious look" at the race

http://atr.rollcall.com/tammy-duckworth-senate-bid-illinois-201/

[Mr. Illini]

I think Lisa Madigan is a more likely candidate for governor in 2018.

[Mr. Illini]

Rep. Robin Kelly "doing her due diligence to see if there is a path" to the Senate

http://chicago.suntimes.com/news-chicago/7/71/314849/rep-robin-kelly-mulling-senate-run

I've been a Kelly fan for a while now. She and Bustos are the best potential candidates at this point in my opinion.

[Mr. Illini]

I'd imagine this makes Bustos less likely to run for Senate:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Terrible news! She was our best shot. She may enjoy another victory in her very favorable district now and run for governor in 2018 rather.

[Mr. Illini]

As a big Mark Kirk fan, Duckworth worries me some because she, with her health, totally eliminates any 'sympathy advantage' that Kirk may have because of his health. She also won by 12 points last year against a significant challenger, despite the GOP Wave, and defeated an incumbent by 10 the cycle before that.

On the other hand, her voting record doesn't look moderate from a quick glance, and she's gotten into a bad habit of missing essentially every vote since the 2014 midterms (her attendance record is excellent before that, so it's probably not part of her medical situation):

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/tammy_duckworth/412533 - Attendance
https://votesmart.org/candidate/key-votes/57442/tammy-duckworth#.VNRRz_nYVSk - Voting Record


I think we can close the door on a Bustos run, considering this: http://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/7/71/344472/rep-cheri-bustos-tapped-dccc-recruitment-vice-chair

Madigan would obviously be a stellar choice, for reasons I probably don't need to explain. If she runs, the race goes to just inches away from Safe D.

I'm skeptical of any potential 'sympathy advantage' that would go Kirk's way. He can turn it into a positive by talking about how he battled back to serve them in the remainder of his term, which is legitimate in my eyes (I have respect for the guy). But that's different than a sympathy advantage. "I am sick so you should re-elect me" is not a realistic advantage in my opinion.

[Mr. Illini]

State Senator Napoleon Harris floats his own name

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20150130/NEWS02/150139976/are-a-policy-wonk-and-a-former-nfl-player-ready-for-2016

Sure wouldn't be my pick. Young, inexperienced, and socially conservative.

Kelly would receive my vote in the suggested Kelly-Harris primary from the article.

[Mr. Illini]

Joe Walsh wants to challenge Kirk

http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150216/news/150219038/

This would be comedic gold, as is any time Walsh makes his way into relevancy.

[Mr. Illini]

Kelly feels she'd have a path to victory.

I think she is going to run for sure, which I am excited about.

[Mr. Illini]

Mark Kirk kicks off fundraising with massive event featuring Rauner

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-kirk-to-host-gop-fundraiser-for-2016-reelection-campaign-20150316-story.html

[Mr. Illini]

Kirk has offered up really cocky responses to each potential challenger he has been asked about.

The only challenger that deserves said cocky response is Joe Walsh.

[Mr. Illini]

I want Bustos! She's not from Chicago, so it would be a great plus.

Ditto. I can't help but feel like we need a Senate candidate in Illinois who's not from Chicago, an area which Democrats have a lock on anyway.

Dick Durbin...

[Mr. Illini]

I don't get all the Bustos love, tbh.

1) Strong political network b/c of her father

2) Despite this, not seen as political insider

3) Not from Chicago

4) Moderate but not too moderate

5) Appeals to blue collar downstaters

[Mr. Illini]

I don't get all the Bustos love, tbh.

1) Strong political network b/c of her father

2) Despite this, not seen as political insider

3) Not from Chicago

4) Moderate but not too moderate

5) Appeals to blue collar downstaters

4 is a positive point? I'm a tad confused why we need a moderate for deep blue Illinois, but a Vermont socialist is fine for nationwide.

Kirk is a formidable candidate. This race is still lean D at best for us.

And, as I said, she's not too moderate.