IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I want Kirk to survive, but it's going to be a very tough fight for him, whether he's against Madigan or some B-list option like Duckworth.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I read somewhere about Quinn running but I can't imagine Illinois Democrats being so masochistic.

LOLOL.

Only place Quinn is going is to the nearest jail.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Just to bring the thread to speed.

Mark Kirk (R-Highland Park) is running for re-election
http://abc7chicago.com/politics/us-sen-mark-kirk-to-run-for-re-election-in-2016-/382589/

Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates) is leaning heavily against running
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20141111/BLOGS02/141119947?template=mobile&X-IgnoreUserAgent=1

Other names tossed out since last Tuesday:
Lisa Madigan (D-Chicago)
Cheri Bustos (D-Moline)
Mike Quigley (D-Chicago)
Bill Foster (D-Naperville)
Tom Dart (D-Chicago)
Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston)
Sheila Simon (D-Carbondale)

Why is Simon a serious option? Wouldn't being tied to the unpopular Quinn be a huge negative?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In another district, Hassert's district,  Foster beat Oberweis, and then lost it in 2010. If he can beat Oberweis and Biggert, he can beat Kirk. I want Madigan and Bustos and Foster to run.

Are you calling Oberweis a competent candidate? LOL.

Holding Durbin to an 11 point win without any national help was quite an accomplishment, to be honest.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, if she is taking a look at it, then Lisa Madigan isn't gonna run.

Ms. Madigan is a good woman who will be avenging The People's Pat in 2018 by giving Mr. Rauner a good thrashing!

Don't assume that Rauner is going to be some terrible governor. See what happens to the Illinois Economy in say, a year, and then make your judgement.

Bustos would be a great person to have in the Senate, especially for her opposition to free trade agreements. Problem is that I also want Kirk It would be nice if Durbin doesn't run in 2020 and she could just take his seat; then I'd be very happy (wishful thinking, I know).

Considering Durbin was considered a possible retirement for 2014, I won't be at all surprised if he retires in 2020.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As a big Mark Kirk fan, Duckworth worries me some because she, with her health, totally eliminates any 'sympathy advantage' that Kirk may have because of his health. She also won by 12 points last year against a significant challenger, despite the GOP Wave, and defeated an incumbent by 10 the cycle before that.

On the other hand, her voting record doesn't look moderate from a quick glance, and she's gotten into a bad habit of missing essentially every vote since the 2014 midterms (her attendance record is excellent before that, so it's probably not part of her medical situation):

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/tammy_duckworth/412533 - Attendance
https://votesmart.org/candidate/key-votes/57442/tammy-duckworth#.VNRRz_nYVSk - Voting Record


I think we can close the door on a Bustos run, considering this: http://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/7/71/344472/rep-cheri-bustos-tapped-dccc-recruitment-vice-chair

Madigan would obviously be a stellar choice, for reasons I probably don't need to explain. If she runs, the race goes to just inches away from Safe D.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kelly feels she'd have a path to victory.

Every notable IL Democrat has a "path to victory". Kirk is the country's most vulnerable senator.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Has there even been any polling on this race??

Yes, but back in 2013 or so.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I want Bustos! She's not from Chicago, so it would be a great plus.

Ditto. I can't help but feel like we need a Senate candidate in Illinois who's not from Chicago, an area which Democrats have a lock on anyway.

Dick Durbin...

Yes, everyone knows he's not from Chicago.

The idea is that a non-chicago candidate is the best bet to defeat Kirk, not that such a candidate has never existed.

(Of course, I'll support Kirk no matter who his opponent is. Getting that out there before anyone speculates otherwise.)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I want Bustos! She's not from Chicago, so it would be a great plus.

Ditto. I can't help but feel like we need a Senate candidate in Illinois who's not from Chicago, an area which Democrats have a lock on anyway.

Dick Durbin...

Yes, everyone knows he's not from Chicago.

The idea is that a non-chicago candidate is the best bet to defeat Kirk, not that such a candidate has never existed.

(Of course, I'll support Kirk no matter who his opponent is. Getting that out there before anyone speculates otherwise.)

What do you approve of regarding Mark Kirk's performance in office?

What are your problems with him besides being a Republican?

The fact that he votes like a Republican?

Kirk is exactly the sort of centrist, compromise-building politician that Washington needs more of. All his potential opponents, except for MAYBE Bustos, would only contribute to Washington gridlock.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I want Bustos! She's not from Chicago, so it would be a great plus.

Ditto. I can't help but feel like we need a Senate candidate in Illinois who's not from Chicago, an area which Democrats have a lock on anyway.

Dick Durbin...

Yes, everyone knows he's not from Chicago.

The idea is that a non-chicago candidate is the best bet to defeat Kirk, not that such a candidate has never existed.

(Of course, I'll support Kirk no matter who his opponent is. Getting that out there before anyone speculates otherwise.)

What do you approve of regarding Mark Kirk's performance in office?

What are your problems with him besides being a Republican?

The fact that he votes like a Republican?

Kirk is exactly the sort of centrist, compromise-building politician that Washington needs more of. All his potential opponents, except for MAYBE Bustos, would only contribute to Washington gridlock.

Ignoring the debate over whether "compromise-buildung" is desirable to begin with, would you perhaps elaborate on what exactly Kirk does to promote this? What part of his performance makes him "centrist"?

Of course, the gridlocked nature of Washington artificially deflates everyone's ability to appear as a centrist, but here's a few examples where Kirk has shown he's not a hard core partisan and is willing to work across the aisle in the senate:

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[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Duckworth announces Monday.

Great news!

Democratic Dream Team, assemble!

I thought the dream candidate was Madigan?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wouldn't surprise me if Duckworth only wins Cook County and still wins...

While it's theoretically possible to get a big enough margin here to win without winning anything else, taking a Uniform Swing from 2014 Governor, from the Rauner win of 3.9% to a Duckworth win of 0.1% (Democrat +4%), points to Duckworth winning Fulton County as well. Interestingly enough, St. Clair, Alexander, and Jackson all go for Kirk in this uniform swing scenario. Quinn carried all three of these counties in his 2010 win, and Kirk carried Jackson County in 2010 but lost the other two.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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Let's see what sort of swing this would require. I already showed that a 4% swing from 2014 Governor, which is Duckworth's bare minimum (a 0.1% win), gives her a victory with just two counties: Cook and Fulton. Let's see what it takes for the rest of the counties in the list above:

5% Swing (Duckworth wins by 1 full point statewide): Duckworth wins Rock Island
6% Swing: Duckworth wins Alexander
8% Swing: Duckworth wins St. Claire, Jackson

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9% Swing: Duckworth wins Knox
18% Swing (Duckworth wins by 14% statewide): Duckworth wins Lake

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13% Swing (Duckworth wins by 9% Statewide): Duckworth wins Whiteside
25% Swing (Duckworth wins by 21% statewide): Duckworth wins Calhoun

Also will calculate it for the rest of the counties won by Durbin last year:

Henderson County: 25% Swing (from 2014 Governor) needed for Duckworth win
Pulaski County: 22% Swing
Gallatin County: 31% Swing (Duckworth wins by 27% statewide)
Champaign County: 13% Swing

This suggests that Pulaski, Gallatin, Henderson, Calhoun, and Lake are out of the question for Duckworth. She is a longshot in Champaign and Whiteside, but Knox, St. Claire, Rock Island Jackson, and Alexander are very much within reach, and Cook/Fulton are required for victory.

To keep things fair, let's look at a Uniform swing from 2014 Senate as well. Durbin won by 10.9%, so on this map, Duckworth can afford a 10.9% swing away from Durbin's performance on this map. Let's see here:

Duckworth matches Durbin: Duckworth wins Cook, Fulton, Rock Island, Alexander, Jackson, St. Claire, Knox, Lake, Whiteside, Calhoun, Henderson, Pulaski, Gallatin, Champaign

1% Republican Swing (from 2014 Senate): Duckworth loses Champaign
2% Republican Swing: Duckworth loses Whiteside, Henderson
3% Republican Swing (8% Duckworth win): Duckworth loses Lake
5% Republican Swing: Duckworth loses Gallatin
6% Republican Swing: Duckworth loses Calhoun, St. Clair
7% Republican Swing: Duckworth loses Knox
8% Republican Swing: Duckworth loses Pulaski
10% Republican Swing (1% Duckworth win): Duckworth loses Jackson
12% Republican Swing (Duckworth loses by 1 full point Statewide): Duckworth loses Fulton, Rock Island
23% Republican Swing (Duckworth loses by 12 points Statewide): Duckworth loses Alexander

BTW, Kirk would need a 46% swing to win Cook.

This suggests that Duckworth will win Cook and Alexander at a bare minimum. Champaign, Whiteside, Henderson, Lake and Gallatin seem to be difficult for her, but Calhoun, St. Clair, Knox, Pulaski and Jackson are very much within reach, and Rock Island/Fulton are required for victory in addition to Cook/Alexander.

Obviously, uniform swing is not perfect. But it is a good start for analysis.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, Bustos isn't running. So forget about Kirk having a non-Chicagoland challenger:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-tammy-duckworth-senate-mark-kirk-20150330-story.html#page=1

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My guess is Bustos is holding out until 2020, if Durbin retires (as I think he will).

Speaking of Durbin, the Senate Dems really seem to be throwing him under the bus lately. What did he do to earn their ire?

If you're referring to Reid picking Schumer over Durbin, 538 said it was because Schumer has a closer voting record to Reid's, and also because Schumer is better at fundraising and has a bigger social media presence.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Q1 2015: Kirk raises ~$1 Million, Duckworth only about ~$522,000.


http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150415/news/150419178/

So far, so much for Kirk being doomed.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Roll Call: Tilt D

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/mark-kirk-race-rating-illinois-senate/?dcz

LOL at Johnson being less vulnerable than Kirk in their ratings.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And it's not as if this is the only case of this happening - Harry Reid and Dean Heller have a good working relationship but still campaign against each other. Same goes for Mark Begich and Lisa Murkowski before Begich lost last year (Begich touted his relationship with Murkowski in his ads, yes, but then Murkowski came out and said she was endorsing Sullivan).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mark Kirk: Obama wants to get nukes to Iran; deal is "the greatest appeasement since Chamberlain gave Czechoslovakia to Hitler" and will create a nuclear war

Windjammer to Mark Kirk: Shut up!

Wulfric to Mark Kirk: Shut up!

(And no, this does not change the fact that I endorse him for reelection. Chicagoland democrats are among the worst in the party.)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I assume he's trying to lose now.

Nice Sarcasm.

Kirk has a tough fight ahead, but he's hardly DOA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

New Kirk Ad:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=526941810786614&id=308836329263831

#reelectKirk
#resistthechicagocorruption

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He was the one Republican to vote against defunding PP. He's so scared of re-election, he really is.

I'm truly wondering if keeping the support of some suburban Chicago moderates (by voting against defunding PP) outweighs losing the support of downstate conservatives, who might now be inclined to abstain. It probably doesn't really matter, however, since Kirk can't afford losing either of these two constituencies. Politically, he's a dead man walking (figuratively...) - I really can't see him winning in 2016. It's a shame that for moderates, there seems to be no place in the Senate anymore. Even though I'm pro-life, I still like Kirk very, very much.q

Well, considering he's not a moderate at all, his more likely than not defeat will change nothing .

He's more moderate than Duckworth would be.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moderate is not a static term. Kirk has cast some votes that really are not in line with his state, which is not really being moderate. Duckworth is a better fit for the state and that is what really counts.

Duckworth allegedly violated the state's ethics act. Is breaking the law part of being a good fit for Illinois?

I get you don't like Kirk. That's fine. But the Democrat who is ethical is Andrea Zopp, not Duckworth.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moderate is not a static term. Kirk has cast some votes that really are not in line with his state, which is not really being moderate. Duckworth is a better fit for the state and that is what really counts.

Duckworth allegedly violated the state's ethics act. Is breaking the law part of being a good fit for Illinois?

I get you don't like Kirk. That's fine. But the Democrat who is ethical is Andrea Zopp, not Duckworth.

What?

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=526941810786614&id=308836329263831