IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[Torie]

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

[Torie]

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

The race to compare is the 2006 battle for IL-6. It was an open seat due to the retirement of Henry Hyde. The district had been drifting Dem, especially the northern half, and today it makes up the majority of Duckworth's IL-8.

The race pitted Duckworth against Roskam and the media attention on Duckworth's compelling life story made it the top race in the US that year and the particular focus of the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel. Despite the media attention, money and Dem wave, Roskam won a close contest 51% to 49%. Roskam's superior campaign skills compared to Duckworth were a key factor in the race.

OK, the old IL-06 had a Dem PVI in 2008 of 3%, and Duckworth ran 4 points behind the PVI. That's not enough to close the gap, particularly since Obama probably ran about 4 points or so ahead of the partisan baseline in that area of Illinois due to his favorite son status (maybe offset some by the 2006 Dem wave). So putting aside whatever incumbency advantage Kirk has, he's in trouble based on that indicator. Have Duckworth's skills in you judgment as a politician improved since then, or not?

[Torie]

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

The race to compare is the 2006 battle for IL-6. It was an open seat due to the retirement of Henry Hyde. The district had been drifting Dem, especially the northern half, and today it makes up the majority of Duckworth's IL-8.


The race pitted Duckworth against Roskam and the media attention on Duckworth's compelling life story made it the top race in the US that year and the particular focus of the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel. Despite the media attention, money and Dem wave, Roskam won a close contest 51% to 49%. Roskam's superior campaign skills compared to Duckworth were a key factor in the race.

OK, the old IL-06 had a Dem PVI in 2008 of 3%, and Duckworth ran 4 points behind the PVI. That's not enough to close the gap, particularly since Obama probably ran about 4 points or so ahead of the partisan baseline in that area of Illinois due to his favorite son status (maybe offset some by the 2006 Dem wave). So putting aside whatever incumbency advantage Kirk has, he's in trouble based on that indicator. Have Duckworth's skills in you judgment as a politician improved since then, or not?

The IL state PVI is listed as D+8, but most think that is overpriced due to its reliance on the 2008 and 2012 results, both of which featured favorite son Obama at the top of the ticket. The actual PVI could be three points less. So let's assume the state as a whole is D+5.

Incumbency is worth a few points, and three is not a bad estimate, so give that to Kirk. Duckworth doesn't seem to have changed much as a candidate since '06. If she again runs 4 points behind her PVI and Kirk gets 3 points for incumbency then the race starts at R+2. Hillary would need to win nationally by 2 points or more to have enough coattails to carry Duckworth.

You double counted there. If the state PVI is inflated by 3 points, that includes Duckwork's CD (I suspect the PVI was more inflated there because the favorite son boost was more pronounced in the collar counties, but whatever), so its PVI was really even in 2006, and she ran one point behind. So you have a Dem PVI for the state of 5 points, less 3 points for incumbency, less one point for Duckworth, leaving her ahead by one point, if Hillary runs even with the PVI.

[Torie]

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

The race to compare is the 2006 battle for IL-6. It was an open seat due to the retirement of Henry Hyde. The district had been drifting Dem, especially the northern half, and today it makes up the majority of Duckworth's IL-8.


The race pitted Duckworth against Roskam and the media attention on Duckworth's compelling life story made it the top race in the US that year and the particular focus of the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel. Despite the media attention, money and Dem wave, Roskam won a close contest 51% to 49%. Roskam's superior campaign skills compared to Duckworth were a key factor in the race.

OK, the old IL-06 had a Dem PVI in 2008 of 3%, and Duckworth ran 4 points behind the PVI. That's not enough to close the gap, particularly since Obama probably ran about 4 points or so ahead of the partisan baseline in that area of Illinois due to his favorite son status (maybe offset some by the 2006 Dem wave). So putting aside whatever incumbency advantage Kirk has, he's in trouble based on that indicator. Have Duckworth's skills in you judgment as a politician improved since then, or not?

The IL state PVI is listed as D+8, but most think that is overpriced due to its reliance on the 2008 and 2012 results, both of which featured favorite son Obama at the top of the ticket. The actual PVI could be three points less. So let's assume the state as a whole is D+5.

Incumbency is worth a few points, and three is not a bad estimate, so give that to Kirk. Duckworth doesn't seem to have changed much as a candidate since '06. If she again runs 4 points behind her PVI and Kirk gets 3 points for incumbency then the race starts at R+2. Hillary would need to win nationally by 2 points or more to have enough coattails to carry Duckworth.

You double counted there. If the state PVI is inflated by 3 points, that includes Duckwork's CD (I suspect the PVI was more inflated there because the favorite son boost was more pronounced in the collar counties, but whatever), so its PVI was really even in 2006, and she ran one point behind. So you have a Dem PVI for the state of 5 points, less 3 points for incumbency, less one point for Duckworth, leaving her ahead by one point, if Hillary runs even with the PVI.

I think I misunderstood your reference to the old IL-6. When you said it had a 2008 PVI of D+3, I took that to mean an actual PVI going into the 2008 election. If so, it would not include Obama's win. I now take it that you are referring to Obama's win in IL-06 in 2008. I should have recognized that old IL-6 was about 2 points more Pub than the US in 2004 when I made my statement and there was a D+3 tide in 2006 (53-47 Dem share of the two party vote). That would suggest that Duckworth ran about 2 points behind the national average.

If the old IL-06 after factoring out the Obama favorite son effect was an even PVI, but the Dem tide in 2006 added three points, than Duckworth ran four points behind the national Dem tide in her district in 2006 (assuming no real inherent PVI change in the CD between 2006 and 2008).

[Torie]

Duckworth isnt gonna lose on Mark Kirk's obstruction of Garland

I don't follow this. Kirk has been for consideration of Garland from the start. He's now on record in favor of a hearing and a vote.

They arent gonna vote for Garland and confirm him. Anyways, as I said Kirk voted against comprehensive immigration reform and Trump losing the state 2:1 wont be enough to save him from Cook Cnty, not downstate.

Rauner doesnt even endorse Trump.

I bet Kirk would vote to confirm Garland (the Pub Senate leadership will give him a pass, and they don't need his vote to tank Garland, assuming that they really want to, if it looks like the White House is lost), and as Muon2 said, Kirk favors a vote.