IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[muon2]

Duckworth has released an announcement video. This will open the door to candidates running to replace her in IL-8.

[muon2]

One of the problems with a uniform swing analysis is the upstate/downstate divide. In 2014 Quinn was particularly unpopular downstate, but Durbin was from downstate so he overperformed some of those counties. That difference was critical to elect downstater Frerichs to Treasurer.

Without Bustos, there won't be a downstater on the statewide ballot in 2016. Neither is favorite son Obama who drove up turnout in 2008 and 2012. One may have to reach back to Kerry in 2004 to get a picture of downstate Dem voting patterns. Perhaps a weighted average of Durbin '14 and Kerry '04 is a better baseline for '16.

[muon2]

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

The race to compare is the 2006 battle for IL-6. It was an open seat due to the retirement of Henry Hyde. The district had been drifting Dem, especially the northern half, and today it makes up the majority of Duckworth's IL-8.




The race pitted Duckworth against Roskam and the media attention on Duckworth's compelling life story made it the top race in the US that year and the particular focus of the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel. Despite the media attention, money and Dem wave, Roskam won a close contest 51% to 49%. Roskam's superior campaign skills compared to Duckworth were a key factor in the race.

[muon2]

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

The race to compare is the 2006 battle for IL-6. It was an open seat due to the retirement of Henry Hyde. The district had been drifting Dem, especially the northern half, and today it makes up the majority of Duckworth's IL-8.

The race pitted Duckworth against Roskam and the media attention on Duckworth's compelling life story made it the top race in the US that year and the particular focus of the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel. Despite the media attention, money and Dem wave, Roskam won a close contest 51% to 49%. Roskam's superior campaign skills compared to Duckworth were a key factor in the race.

OK, the old IL-06 had a Dem PVI in 2008 of 3%, and Duckworth ran 4 points behind the PVI. That's not enough to close the gap, particularly since Obama probably ran about 4 points or so ahead of the partisan baseline in that area of Illinois due to his favorite son status (maybe offset some by the 2006 Dem wave). So putting aside whatever incumbency advantage Kirk has, he's in trouble based on that indicator. Have Duckworth's skills in you judgment as a politician improved since then, or not?

The IL state PVI is listed as D+8, but most think that is overpriced due to its reliance on the 2008 and 2012 results, both of which featured favorite son Obama at the top of the ticket. The actual PVI could be three points less. So let's assume the state as a whole is D+5.

Incumbency is worth a few points, and three is not a bad estimate, so give that to Kirk. Duckworth doesn't seem to have changed much as a candidate since '06. If she again runs 4 points behind her PVI and Kirk gets 3 points for incumbency then the race starts at R+2. Hillary would need to win nationally by 2 points or more to have enough coattails to carry Duckworth.

[muon2]

Just how articulate and smart is Duckworth? How well informed is she on the issues? That really needs to be factored into any analysis.

The race to compare is the 2006 battle for IL-6. It was an open seat due to the retirement of Henry Hyde. The district had been drifting Dem, especially the northern half, and today it makes up the majority of Duckworth's IL-8.


The race pitted Duckworth against Roskam and the media attention on Duckworth's compelling life story made it the top race in the US that year and the particular focus of the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel. Despite the media attention, money and Dem wave, Roskam won a close contest 51% to 49%. Roskam's superior campaign skills compared to Duckworth were a key factor in the race.

OK, the old IL-06 had a Dem PVI in 2008 of 3%, and Duckworth ran 4 points behind the PVI. That's not enough to close the gap, particularly since Obama probably ran about 4 points or so ahead of the partisan baseline in that area of Illinois due to his favorite son status (maybe offset some by the 2006 Dem wave). So putting aside whatever incumbency advantage Kirk has, he's in trouble based on that indicator. Have Duckworth's skills in you judgment as a politician improved since then, or not?

The IL state PVI is listed as D+8, but most think that is overpriced due to its reliance on the 2008 and 2012 results, both of which featured favorite son Obama at the top of the ticket. The actual PVI could be three points less. So let's assume the state as a whole is D+5.

Incumbency is worth a few points, and three is not a bad estimate, so give that to Kirk. Duckworth doesn't seem to have changed much as a candidate since '06. If she again runs 4 points behind her PVI and Kirk gets 3 points for incumbency then the race starts at R+2. Hillary would need to win nationally by 2 points or more to have enough coattails to carry Duckworth.

You double counted there. If the state PVI is inflated by 3 points, that includes Duckwork's CD (I suspect the PVI was more inflated there because the favorite son boost was more pronounced in the collar counties, but whatever), so its PVI was really even in 2006, and she ran one point behind. So you have a Dem PVI for the state of 5 points, less 3 points for incumbency, less one point for Duckworth, leaving her ahead by one point, if Hillary runs even with the PVI.

I think I misunderstood your reference to the old IL-6. When you said it had a 2008 PVI of D+3, I took that to mean an actual PVI going into the 2008 election. If so, it would not include Obama's win. I now take it that you are referring to Obama's win in IL-06 in 2008. I should have recognized that old IL-6 was about 2 points more Pub than the US in 2004 when I made my statement and there was a D+3 tide in 2006 (53-47 Dem share of the two party vote). That would suggest that Duckworth ran about 2 points behind the national average.

[muon2]

Duckworth's IL-8 is not on the outskirts, but is anchored in NW Cook county. It does not include any of Chicago. It is true that the black political class would like to get Obama's old seat. It is also true that many local Dem party groups were not fully on-board with Duckworth during her 2006 run for the open IL-6, lost to Roskam. However, the head of the DCCC in 2006 is now the mayor of Chicago. Ah, how the plot thickens.

[muon2]

New Paul Simon Public Policy Institute/Southern Illinois University Senate primary poll

Republicans:

Mark Kirk: 53%
James Marter: 14%
Undecided: 33%

Democrats:

Tammy Duckworth: 52%
Andrea Zopp: 6%
Napoleon Harris: 4%
Undecided: 37%

Kirk approval rating: 39/31
Durbin approval rating: 51/34

__________________________________________________________________
Lincoln Park Strategies poll shows huge Duckworth lead as well:

Duckworth: 64%
Zopp: 6%
Napoleon: 3%

Well this confirms what we've known for awhile, that this will be a Kirk v. Duckworth matchup. I wish they polled a Kirk v. Duckworth general election matchup though, it's weird that they didn't

It may be hard to poll the general election match up accurately for a while. There's a part of the Pub base that is furious with Kirk's vote against the bill to defund Planned Parenthood. Some township GOP organizations went so far as to vote for a letter to censure Kirk. The large undecided in the Pub primary may reflect that, and until that settles down it isn't clear where those Pub voters go in Nov.

[muon2]

Duckworth isnt gonna lose on Mark Kirk's obstruction of Garland

I don't follow this. Kirk has been for consideration of Garland from the start. He's now on record in favor of a hearing and a vote.