IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[Maxwell]

To me, Bustos is Kirk's worst fear.

[Maxwell]

Madigan is definitely Kirk's worse fear his second would be Duckworth. Between Madigan, Duckworth, and Bustos if I were him I'd rather run against Bustos.

Duckworth is a pretty underwhelming campaigner, Madigan is too entrenched, Bustos is neither of those things.

[Maxwell]

Madigan is definitely Kirk's worse fear his second would be Duckworth. Between Madigan, Duckworth, and Bustos if I were him I'd rather run against Bustos.

Duckworth is a pretty underwhelming campaigner, Madigan is too entrenched, Bustos is neither of those things.

I have no doubt all three could defeat Kirk.

I don't disagree with that. But could is different from will. Underestimating Kirk is stupid.

[Maxwell]

Madigan is definitely Kirk's worse fear his second would be Duckworth. Between Madigan, Duckworth, and Bustos if I were him I'd rather run against Bustos.

Duckworth is a pretty underwhelming campaigner, Madigan is too entrenched, Bustos is neither of those things.

I have no doubt all three could defeat Kirk.

I don't disagree with that. But could is different from will. Underestimating Kirk is stupid.

No, I'm being realistic. Kirk is an anonymous Republican Senator in a deep blue state who barely won in a wave year against a corrupt opponent. What makes you think he'll win against a top recruit like Duckworth or Madigan he is not Chuck Grassley he can be beaten easily.

um... I'm not saying he'll win. I'm saying it's possible. Especially against someone who is a weak campaigner.

[Maxwell]

Joe Walsh is actually a piece of sh**t. I don't care that he may or may not run against Mark Kirk, no skin off my back, but he's just an abysmal person and everyone should vote against him. Arch-conservatives shouldn't even like him.

[Maxwell]

In another district, Hassert's district,  Foster beat Oberweis, and then lost it in 2010. If he can beat Oberweis and Biggert, he can beat Kirk. I want Madigan and Bustos and Foster to run.

Are you calling Oberweis a competent candidate? LOL.

[Maxwell]

Holding Durbin to an 11 point win without any national help was quite an accomplishment, to be honest.

That could be partially attributed to the national environment, as well as the Governor's race.

Yes, this, and the fact that Oberweis is a self-funder and Dick Durbin doesn't exactly inspire anybody to vote.

[Maxwell]

That's what primaries are for. Last time we annoited Ginnoulias instead of having a real primary, not a fake one, and we lost. Hopefully this time is different.

That's not even true - David Hoffman was this close to beating Giannolous

[Maxwell]

Well, if she is taking a look at it, then Lisa Madigan isn't gonna run.

Ms. Madigan is a good woman who will be avenging The People's Pat in 2018 by giving Mr. Rauner a good thrashing!

Don't assume that Rauner is going to be some terrible governor. See what happens to the Illinois Economy in say, a year, and then make your judgement.

Even if Rauner got unemployment down to like 1%, he would be no match for Lisa "Bulldozer" Madigan.

Just like Pat Quinn was no match for The Bulldawg.

[Maxwell]

Bill Foster still looking at running:

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Illinois may be the bloodbath we were all hoping that California would be

[Maxwell]

Duckworth winning would be very, very bad for Kirk.

well if she already won, then yes, that would be bad for Kirk. But polls this early on have her up a full one point.

[Maxwell]

The issue with Tammy is, despite all of her positives, there seems to be something missing with her. Despite her heroic story, she is very robotic in her speaking. She seems like a terrific candidate on paper - but the reality never connects.

I can't imagine calling her win over the DOA Joe Walsh that impressive. Joe Walsh was in a fairly Democratic district and was not only one of the most right-wing congressmen, but generally was kind of a scumbag. His days were so obviously numbered, the Democrats could've nominated a Plank of Wood and that Plank of Wood would be Congressman today.

Mark Kirk, on the other hand, while he doesn't have the war story and war reality that Duckworth faces day in and day out, has beaten the odds and does a decent job connecting with voters. I believe Democrats in Illinois can definitely do better (And Kirk is a mega hawk, so I hope they do).

[Maxwell]

Following Duckworth's announcement, Bustos is reportedly "not interested" in running. No word from Bill Foster or Robin Kelly.

Duckworth gets crap for not having the margins to live up to her hype, and for doing things like not going negative against Joe Walsh), but I think she beats Kirk barring a major screw-up on her part. As others have pointed out, we've learned that moderate Republicans in blue states can only run so far ahead of the Republican nominee in Presidential cycles. There's not a single GOP candidate who could even make Illinois close in 2016, especially against Hillary who might get a minor favorite son effect. I think a comparison to Gordon Smith or Lincoln Chafee is appropriate.

I agree, actually. Democrats don't need the next super talent to knock off Kirk, they just need someone who isn't corrupt and incompetent, and what we know so far, she at least isn't the first one. We'll find out truly if she's the second one when she runs, because there's really no evidence in her career thus far one way or the other.

[Maxwell]

Q1 2015: Kirk raises ~$1 Million, Duckworth only about ~$522,000.


http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20150415/news/150419178/

So far, so much for Kirk being doomed.

Well the thing is Blanche would've been lucky to be within margin of the error (Which Mark Kirk has been in the opinion poll that has been taken).

[Maxwell]

Kirk has always been a huge hawk. Why are people on Atlas still surprised by this?

[Maxwell]

Damn, this is going to be a nasty campaign. Anyway, it would probably be better for Dems if someone else won the Primary IMO. Duckworth is a very overrated candidate.

Perhaps. Though I would say that Duckworth neutralizes two advantages that Kirk would usually have: 1) sympathy for his physical handicap (I think "lost both legs in a war" wins over stroke in terms of sympathy points, though both are tragic), and 2) military service.

Also, I am highly amused by the fact that the anti-Duckworth ads never mention that Duckworth is a veteran, and take great pains to avoid showing any pictures of her where the viewer could see her prosthetic legs.

Well, why would he? Of course he wouldn't bring that up in his own ad.

[Maxwell]

Unless they convince Bob Dold to jump in, I don't think Republicans have a better shot to win this seat than with their own Senator.

[Maxwell]

I bet Jim Oberweis, Illinois' favorite perennial Republican, is beginning to take a look at it.

[Maxwell]

It is apparent, however, that Illinois Democrats are not united behind Tammy Duckworth, and in fact, more candidates are thinking of entering the race. The lack of confidence in Duckworth speaks volumes.

[Maxwell]

It is apparent, however, that Illinois Democrats are not united behind Tammy Duckworth, and in fact, more candidates are thinking of entering the race. The lack of confidence in Duckworth speaks volumes.

Who is considering entering?

State Senator and Former NFL-er Napoleon Harris, who would already have State Senate President John Cullerton's endorsement if he decided to enter. Cook County Comissionier Richard Boykin started an exploratory committee.

Not to mention Kwame Raoul just endorsed Andrea Zopp.

[Maxwell]

CoC may put money behind Zopp to protect Kirk

http://capitolfax.com/2015/08/27/us-chamber-plots-zopp-support-10th-cd-intervention/

Thuggery.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2012

You see, when McCaskill does it, she's smart. When the CoC does it, its white collar thugs trying to protect their cronies.

No, when the CoC does it, they're dumb because Zopp still won't win the primary.

It also potentially ups Duckworth's negatives.

[Maxwell]

CoC may put money behind Zopp to protect Kirk

http://capitolfax.com/2015/08/27/us-chamber-plots-zopp-support-10th-cd-intervention/

Thuggery.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2012

You see, when McCaskill does it, she's smart. When the CoC does it, its white collar thugs trying to protect their cronies.

No, when the CoC does it, they're dumb because Zopp still won't win the primary.

It also potentially ups Duckworth's negatives.

The GOP's problem here isn't so much Duckworth as it is that Kirk seems hellbent on getting himself Blanched.

I suppose that comparison makes a little more sense now, since I see a parallel between the Boozman primary and Duckworth's - the primary challengers still want a challenge, but it's obvious who is going to win the primary.

But what I find especially odd is that the Democratic Party, even in states like this, are usually direly allergic to primaries. And yet the party apparatus seems to be actively encouraging it. Is there something about Duckworth as a candidate we don't know?

[Maxwell]

CoC may put money behind Zopp to protect Kirk

http://capitolfax.com/2015/08/27/us-chamber-plots-zopp-support-10th-cd-intervention/

Thuggery.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2012

You see, when McCaskill does it, she's smart. When the CoC does it, its white collar thugs trying to protect their cronies.

No, when the CoC does it, they're dumb because Zopp still won't win the primary.

It also potentially ups Duckworth's negatives.

The GOP's problem here isn't so much Duckworth as it is that Kirk seems hellbent on getting himself Blanched.

I suppose that comparison makes a little more sense now, since I see a parallel between the Boozman primary and Duckworth's - the primary challengers still want a challenge, but it's obvious who is going to win the primary.

But what I find especially odd is that the Democratic Party, even in states like this, are usually direly allergic to primaries. And yet the party apparatus seems to be actively encouraging it. Is there something about Duckworth as a candidate we don't know?

Duckworth has always been the national party's creature, so to speak.  The Cook County Democratic establishment (i.e. the state party) in general and Chicago's African-American political machine in particular just want one of their own puppets in the seat rather than a puppet of the D.C. Democratic establishment.  A Senate seat's a f***ing valuable thing, they're not just gonna give it away for nothing

Isn't Duckworth's district within Chicagoland though?

[Maxwell]

Tammy Duckworth will vote in favor of the Iran Deal.

Excellent news!

[Maxwell]

Tammy Duckworth will vote in favor of the Iran Deal.

Excellent news!

For Democratic turnout? Maybe.

The fact of the matter is if Kirk uses language like Flake and Manchin on the deal, and Duckworth seems comparatively greatly supportive, then she could start losing Democratic-leaning independents.

I don't care about Democratic turnout, I thought it was good news she supported a good deal.