Japan Lower House election - Dec 14, 2014
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  Japan Lower House election - Dec 14, 2014
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #200 on: December 14, 2014, 07:23:40 PM »

What happens to the DPJ now that Kaieda's gone?  Is Goshi Hosono likely to try for it?  How about Mabuchi?  Any chance Noda or Kan will try for a comeback?

Sorry for my ignorance regarding Japanese politics, btw.
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Vega
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« Reply #201 on: December 14, 2014, 07:32:21 PM »

What happens to the DPJ now that Kaieda's gone?  Is Goshi Hosono likely to try for it?  How about Mabuchi?  Any chance Noda or Kan will try for a comeback?

Sorry for my ignorance regarding Japanese politics, btw.

They'll hold another rushed leadership contest, in which they'll pick another incompetent leader.

I think Hosono is too young to be the President of the party yet, likely Sumio Mabuchi will run and win. Noda and Kan won't run, either, they were both responsible for huge election defeats for their party.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #202 on: December 14, 2014, 08:05:38 PM »

Did Shizuka Kamei and/or Tomoko Abe run for re-election. If so, what was the result?
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Vega
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« Reply #203 on: December 14, 2014, 08:10:55 PM »

Did Shizuka Kamei and/or Tomoko Abe run for re-election. If so, what was the result?

Kamei ran and won as an independent aligned with the DPJ. Tomoko Abe did not stand for re-election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #204 on: December 14, 2014, 10:44:07 PM »
« Edited: December 15, 2014, 08:32:03 AM by jaichind »

I will post a more detailed comparison of my predictions and what actually took place.  This is my initial observations on the dynamics of the LDP-KP victory

1) The LDP-KP PR surge is mostly explained by a significant part of the YP vote going to LDP.  On a regional basis it is clear that the LDP-PR swing is very strongly correlated with the YP PR vote of 2012.
2) The YP vote share move toward the LDP has implications for the FPTP seats as the same YP support base that went to LDP for PR also moved to support LDP-KP in FPTP seats.  Since YP backed JRP in Osaka in 2012, the shift in the YP vote mostly explained why some JIP incumbents were defeated.
3) JCP PR did very well because of low turnout.
4) JIP PR actually pretty well considering everything while DPJ in view under-performed relative to its potential.  It is clear that memories of the 2009-12 DPJ government fiasco will take time to heal.
5) In addition for some of the YP vote base help in the LDP-KP landslide in FPTP, it seems that DPJ and JIP did not effectively transfer votes to each other.   Looking at my predictions, they ended up being right if the DPJ or JIP predicted victory was based on innate strength of said party at the district but ended up being wrong if it was dependent on vote transfers from the other party.   It seems if DPJ is running then many of the JIP supporters voted LDP instead of DPJ.  Likewise if JIP is running then many of the DPJ SDP and PLP voters vote for JCP instead of backing JIP.
6) JCP ran very strong at the district level and whereas I thought non-JCP opposition parties forming tactical alliances to beat LDP 1-on-1 would provoke JCP anti-LDP tactical voting, the opposite seems to have taken place.  Not trusting DPJ or LDP, many anti-LDP voters ended voting JCP which in turn help LDP sweep all the seats I labeled as tossups.  I guess DPJ and JIP will have to build up a track record to gain that anti-LDP vote bloc trust.
7) PFG all things equal did not take votes from LDP and mostly hurt DPJ and/or JIP more which was a surprise.
 
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #205 on: December 15, 2014, 01:52:16 AM »

The two Democrats who switched from Your Party lost.
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jaichind
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« Reply #206 on: December 15, 2014, 02:52:37 PM »
« Edited: December 15, 2014, 03:06:26 PM by jaichind »

To understand the swing of 7.37% in the PR blocs toward LDP+KP we should compare the swings by region and look at the YP PR vote in 2012

               2012          2012       2014        Swing
                   YP          LDP-KP     LDP-KP
北海道         5.94%   37.48%   42.09%   4.61%
東北            7.06%   37.73%   44.16%   6.43%
北関東       12.18%   40.83%   49.30%   8.47%
南関東       12.45%   37.05%   46.77%   9.72%
東京          11.67%   35.01%   44.21%   9.20%
北陸信越      7.51%   40.07%   45.57%   5.50%
東海            9.03%   38.49%   45.77%   7.28%
近畿            6.52%   36.52%   43.55%   7.03%
中国            5.98%   48.61%   54.82%   6.21%
四国            5.03%   45.62%   50.63%   5.01%
九州            6.37%   45.55%   52.04%   6.49%
Total           8.72%   39.45%   46.82%   7.37%
 
It is very clear that the LDP-KP vote share increase is mostly due to a good section of the YP, which is a LDP splinter back in 2009 anyway, vote share coming back.  In 2012 YP backed JRP in many places and YP voters voted JRP for FPTP candidates in addition to YP candidates.  Where neither JIP and YP ran candidates in 2012, the YP voter mostly voted LDP.  Also, in places where YP and JRP had candidates and ran strong in 2012 (like Tokyo and Osaka), these YP MPs mostly went over to DPJ or JIP where I expected the YP voting bloc in those districts to follow these leaders evan as many of them will vote LDP on the PR.  So while I had expected on the PR side for LDP to pick up support from the fall of YP which did indeed take place, I did not expect a large swing toward LDP-KP in FPTP from 2012 from the premise that a lot of YP voters voted LDP in FPTP anyway in 2012 and the YP and JRP MPs they did vote for now are in JIP or DPJ and many if not most of these YP voters will follow these MPs.  I was wrong as it seems in places like Tokyo and Osaka these YP voters voted for LDP.

As a side note, I was right in using  東海 section during the count as the bellwether PR section.  it seems 東海 LDP-KP vote share is always 1% below the LDP-KP national vote share.  This relationship held in 2014 as it did in 2012.
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EPG
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« Reply #207 on: December 15, 2014, 03:14:58 PM »

3) JCP PR did very well because of low turnout.

It's more than turnout; their PR vote rose from 3.7m in 2012 to 6.1m in 2014.
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jaichind
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« Reply #208 on: December 15, 2014, 03:34:44 PM »

3) JCP PR did very well because of low turnout.

It's more than turnout; their PR vote rose from 3.7m in 2012 to 6.1m in 2014.

You mean 4.7M to 6M.  But you are 100% correct.  It is more than just turnout as JCP seems to be able to attract the anti-Abe vote.  Of course low turnout also helps.
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EPG
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« Reply #209 on: December 15, 2014, 04:51:56 PM »

The PR vote was much lower than the 4.7m district vote, I presume because Communist district candidates are so frequent compared to other parties.

http://www.electionresources.org/jp/representatives.php?election=2012
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jaichind
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« Reply #210 on: December 15, 2014, 05:10:19 PM »

The PR vote was much lower than the 4.7m district vote, I presume because Communist district candidates are so frequent compared to other parties.

http://www.electionresources.org/jp/representatives.php?election=2012

You are right, my mistake.  4.7M is what JCP got in 2012 in FPTP seats.   In 2014 FPTP the JCP got 7M votes, an impressive surge.
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jaichind
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« Reply #211 on: December 15, 2014, 05:39:58 PM »

Looks like JCP got 11.4% on PR vote (not a record as in 1996 JCP got 13.08%) and 13.3% in the FPTP (a record, in 1996 JCP got 12.55% in the FPTP and in 1979 when the JCP won a record 39 seats it captured 10.42% of the vote.)  The record FPTP vote share for JCP goes a long way to explain why opposition consolidate at the FPTP district level did not yield results as a good part of the anti-LDP vote when to JCP.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #212 on: December 15, 2014, 09:12:56 PM »
« Edited: December 15, 2014, 09:14:59 PM by Famous Mortimer »


Some are actual independents, but others are small, regional parties.

I think Tax Cuts Japan managed to win a couple seats, and Okinawa Mass won a constituency seat.

The independents tend to be pro-LDP or pro-DPJ. I think there are 3 pro-DPJ indies and 4 pro-LDP indies.

According Japanese Wikipedia, the 8 independents elected were:

Kishirō Nakamura: Former Liberal Democrat, former Reform Club (proto-New Renaissance Party)

Koizumi Ryuji: Former Liberal Democrat, former member of LDP rebel faction led by current Party of Future Generations leader Hiranuma Takeo.

Keiichiro Asao: Former New Frontier, New Fraternity, pre-1998 Democrat, and most recently Your Party member.

Kotaro Nagasaki: Former Liberal Democrat

Tsuyoshi Yamaguchi: Former Democrat

Kamei Shizuka: Former Liberal Democrat, People's New, Tomorrow, and Green Wind Party member.

Takahiro Inoue: Former Liberal Democrat (Aso faction)

Nakazato Toshinobu: No Wiki page.

Sorry, too lazy to change naming order.

Anyway, I don't think anyone was elected from Tax Cut Japan unless the guy without the Wiki page is. Don't see anything about the Okinawa Social Masses Party either. Maybe you heard that a leftist had been elected in Okinawa and assumed it was them. It was actually a Communist that won Okinawa, apparently the first FPTP seat they've won in a while (ever?).
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jaichind
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« Reply #213 on: December 15, 2014, 09:59:31 PM »
« Edited: December 22, 2014, 09:03:55 AM by jaichind »

I was about to write about independents

Kishirō Nakamura (中村喜四郎) - Was a LDP postal reform rebel that never came back.  Was for a while part of pro-LDP splinter NRP before NRP declined into nothingness.   Have been winning his seat against LDP but overall pro-LDP

Koizumi Ryuji (小泉龍司) - Another postal reform rebel that never came back.  He has been associated with far right movements including people who are now are PFG gang.  Have been winning his seat against LDP but overall pro-LDP although it is better to describe him as pro-PFG.

Keiichiro Asao (浅尾慶一郎) - Former YP member and leader of YP after Watanabe stepped  down.   He used to be a member of the DPJ and one of the reason YP dissolved was because Asso and Watanabe could not agree on if YP should align with opposition (Asao) or LDP (Watanabe.)  He ran and won against LDP even though there was a DPJ rebel in the fray that could have split the anti-LDP vote.  In the end Asao won anyway.  Given the nature of the YP split we should view him as pro-DPJ.

Kotaro Nagasaki (長崎幸太郎) - Basically a LDP rebel that had to beat an official LDP candidate to win.  He was actually recruited by LDP to run against a LDP postal reform rebel.   But in 2009 seeing that the LDP ship was sinking decided to jump ship.  Still he should be seen as pro-LDP from a policy point of view.

Tsuyoshi Yamaguchi (山口壮) - Former DPJ MP and part of the DPJ cabinet  that actually managed to win in 2012.  Then broke away from the DPJ.  He then "joined" one of the LDP factions in his district hoping to be nominated by LDP in 2014.  Another LDP faction wanted to nominate their own candidate.  The decision is that both will run as independents.  He managed to win his seat and now should be seen as pro-LDP.  I am pretty sure he will join LDP very soon now that he won.

Shizuka Kamei (亀井静香) - Another postal reform rebel who formed PNP as an anti-postal reform party.  He lead the PNP to become an ally of DPJ.  After PNP wound up has joined Green Wind before that party disbanded.  Was supported by DPJ against the LDP in his district.  Should be seen as pro-DPJ.

Takahiro Inoue (井上貴博) - Was the incumbent LDP MP of his district.  But another rival faction wanted to nominate another candidate.  So the decision was that both he and his LDP rival will run as independents.  I thought DPJ will capture this seat due to the split of the LDP vote but the intra-LDP civil war actually polarized the vote and pulled him through.  He should be seen as pro-LDP for sure and should rejoin LDP soon.

Takeshi Noma (野間健) - Was a member of DPJ running unsuccessfully in the past on the DPJ ticket.   Then joined PNP which is a LDP postal reform rebel party that then formed an alliance with DPJ and won in 2012 as a joint candidate for DPJ and PNP.   After PNP disbanded he became an independent.  He has won reelection with DPJ support against LDP.  Should be seen as pro-DPJ.

Nakazato Toshinobu (仲里利信) - Won in Okinawa as an independent supported by the Okinawa Social Mass Party as well as DPJ, PLP, JIP, SDP and even the JCP against the LDP.  Should be seen as pro-DPJ.

So overall it is 5 pro-LDP, 4 pro-DPJ
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #214 on: December 16, 2014, 01:03:42 AM »

Most sites are now reporting only 8 independents won. So I'm taking it that Takeshi Noma lost. So 6 pro-LDP and only 2 pro-DPJ.
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Vega
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« Reply #215 on: December 16, 2014, 05:47:29 AM »

Alright, I see. My apologies for the confusion, Google Translate can be a bit tricky sometimes in the way it interprets text.
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jaichind
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« Reply #216 on: December 16, 2014, 06:44:20 AM »

Most sites are now reporting only 8 independents won. So I'm taking it that Takeshi Noma lost. So 6 pro-LDP and only 2 pro-DPJ.

I am confused by this as well.  I looked onto this and found what took place.   It seems for Takahiro Inoue the LDP decided that since he won that they retroactively nominated him.  We Chinese have a saying "The winner is king and the loser bandit."   This explains why on election night LDP had 290 seats but now have 291 while independents 9 and now 8.
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jaichind
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« Reply #217 on: December 16, 2014, 06:51:24 AM »

BTW, I was wrong in saying that JCP has never won a FPTP seat until now.   It seems they won 2 in 1996 which was another good year for JCP.
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« Reply #218 on: December 16, 2014, 01:54:01 PM »

Where is the JCP FPTP seat?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #219 on: December 16, 2014, 01:57:51 PM »

Okinawa
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« Reply #220 on: December 16, 2014, 02:25:50 PM »


Okinawa's 1st district, including Naha city and the islands directly west of Okinawa main island.

The mayor of Naha was Takeshi ONAGA, notable as the independent elected in November as Governor of Okinawa on a US military base-closure pledge, supported by, among others, the Communists, SDP and Social Mass. The same coalition supported the new JCP member, who beat the LDP incumbent 40-37; the incumbent won a seat on the PR list, so remains a member of the Diet. It is probably fair to ascribe this to a lucky vote split; the right-wing former incumbent, who lost in 2012, held onto some of his vote in 2014 as a JIP candidate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #221 on: December 16, 2014, 08:30:07 PM »

News from the FPG front.  Ishihara Senior to retire from politics.  He blamed the FPG defeat on the fact that the name is to difficult to understand and explain to the voter.  I will miss him and wish him the best of luck.  While I did not agree with a lot of his views I can empathize with them as a fellow nationalist.  While I feel he is hypocritical about some of his views on the whole I like how he was blunt and straightforward about how he felt and did not apologize for views that many might view as controversial. 

Toshio Tamogami (田母神俊雄) who won a surprising 12% in the recent Tokyo Governor race finished 4th behind KP, JCP, and PLP as the PFG candidate.  He was COS for the Japanese Air Force and was fired for writing an essay saying that Japan was not the aggressor in WWII.  I sort of feel this this bum rap regardless how you feel about his position.  Imagine of Colin Powell was fired because he wrote and essay on an US military historical topic that is at odds with the USA government's official historical position.   Not sure that is justified.  One way or another he was soundly defeated in his seat. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #222 on: December 16, 2014, 08:33:57 PM »

As mentioned before DPJ Banri Kaieda was defeated in his Tokyo seat and did not do well enough to quality for the DPJ Tokyo PR list.  What is not mentioned was that he was beaten out  by none other than Naoto Kan who was also beaten in his Tokyo seat but did better than Banri Kaieda did which put him ahead to get a seat on the DPJ Tokyo PR slate.

Speaking of PR slates, out of the 284 LDP candidates that ran in the FPTP seats, only 8 failed to win their seat AND failed to come back on the PR list.  Pretty good strike rate. 
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Vega
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« Reply #223 on: December 16, 2014, 08:36:46 PM »

^ I'd rather have Kan than Kaieda.

Overall, to put a bow on this election, I'm glad the LDP won. I don't agree with them all the time, but what's the alternative? We see how the DPJ governed during their 3 year stint in power. All the other parties are new and held together with spit and gum.
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jaichind
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« Reply #224 on: December 16, 2014, 10:20:15 PM »

I did my own calculations of the FPTP vote share based on data I got from Asahi and NHK.  My numbers might be a bit different from others because

1) I split out the independent vote into LDP Independent or rebels, DPJ Independent or rebels, YP Independents (former YP members that did not join another party and instead running as independents), and true Independents/minor parties
2) I count one PFG backed independent as part of the PFG vote share.
3) In the 2 seats where we had 2 LDP independent running in each, using the logic "If you win you are LDP", I count the winner of each under LDP and the other LDP independent as a LDP  Independent or rebels.

LDP         48.35%
KP             1.45%
DPJ          22.46%
JIP            8.21%
SDP          0.79%
PLP           0.97%
JCP         13.29%
PFG          1.89%
Ind-LDP    0.86%
Ind-DPJ     1.05%
Ind-YP      0.45%
Ind           0.21%
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