Japan Lower House election - Dec 14, 2014

[jaichind]

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/foreign/13-Nov-2014/japan-s-abe-to-postpone-tax-hike-call-december-election

Looks like Abe will call an election on Dec 14th.

[Vega]

If he calls it on December, 14th when would it actually be held?

Also, you beat me to the punch on creating a thread for this.

[Simfan34]

Obviously there is something I don't know, because I would think now is not the best time for the LDP to be holding a snap election. What would that be?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

That any potential opposition has utterly collapsed in on itself and regularly scores below 10% in the polls?

That said, pretty much all of Abe's remaining agenda - raising the consumption tax, restarting the nuclear plants, the TPP and remilitarisation - remain dreadfully unpopular; so by all rights Abe should be underwater.

[Nichlemn]

That any potential opposition has utterly collapsed in on itself and regularly scores below 10% in the polls?

That said, pretty much all of Abe's remaining agenda - raising the consumption tax, restarting the nuclear plants, the TPP and remilitarisation - remain dreadfully unpopular; so by all rights Abe should be underwater.

He just about is. Interesting that "No Party" has frequently been the plurality winner in the polls, although as you say the opposition is basically non-existent.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Interesting that "No Party" has frequently been the plurality winner in the polls, although as you say the opposition is basically non-existent.

That's the case in many Japanese elections. Technically the question that gets asked in polling is about 'approval' of the various parties, not voting intentions per se.

I'd be willing to bet that Abe will lose his supermajority, although losing government is not going to happen.

[jaichind]

If he calls it on December, 14th when would it actually be held?

Also, you beat me to the punch on creating a thread for this.

He will call it Monday after the GDP numbers come out.  The election date would be 12/14.  At this stage there are so many rumors he has to call it or he will seem like a chicken.

[jaichind]

Obviously there is something I don't know, because I would think now is not the best time for the LDP to be holding a snap election. What would that be?

Well, what Abe is trying to do is to get a replay of the Koizumi landslide midterm of 2005.  In 2005 anti-postal reform LDP rebels worked with DPJ to reject Koizumi's postal office reform plan.  Koizumi then called an election as an referendum on this reform and won in a landslide.  Abe seems to want to delay the consumption tax increase so he wants an election after monday's presumably bad GDP numbers come out saying Japan's economy cannot afford a tax increase and call an election.  Abe seems to infer that there opposition to the tax delay within the LDP.  Problem with this is that Abe should first call a vote in both houses and expose these LDP rebels, and if Abe cannot win that vote he can call an election to get a mandate for a tax delay.  He seems want to just bypass that and go straight to an election.  I do not think this will work and he will lose seats although not his majority.   

[jaichind]

Signs of opposition realignment to take on LDP-NKP.

2 opposition parties in Japan mull merger as election looms+
TOKYO, Nov. 15 Kyodo
The main opposition Democratic Party of Japan and Your Party, a small opposition group, are considering merging ahead of the snap election that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to call soon, party officials said Friday.
The two parties have also sounded out the Japan Innovation Party, another small opposition group, about joining the amalgamation, they said.
Abe is expected to announce Tuesday plans to soon dissolve the House of Representatives for a general election in December, according to senior Diet members of Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Abe is also expected to announce he has decided to postpone until April 2017 the second-stage increase in the consumption tax planned for next October.
The DPJ and Your Party are now coordinating their stances on that matter. The DPJ previously had called on the government to proceed to raise the sales tax next October to 10 percent as planned. But on Friday it made a major policy shift to seek to freeze the tax at the current 8 percent.
The DPJ holds 114 seats and Your Party 20 seats in the 722-seat Japanese parliament.
It is possible that talk of merging with the DPJ could lead to a split in Your Party by intensifying conflicts between current party leader Keiichiro Asao and former leader Yoshimi Watanabe.
More than five Your Party members are expected not to join the new party created through a merger with the DPJ, and to either follow Watanabe or explore the possibility of joining forces with the Party for Future Generations, another small opposition group.
DPJ leader Banri Kaieda and Asao held talks Friday on drafting a common platform and coordinating candidates to field for the upcoming election. After the meeting, however, Asao was noncommittal about whether the parties intend to merge, saying that is "just a rumor."

[jaichind]

If Abe wants to get a mandate to delay the consumption tax but now DPJ does now support delaying the consumption tax then what is the point of the election?  They should all vote to delay the tax and move on.  Of course the tax delay is just an excuse to try to lock in another large majority while Abe can still do it.

[Vega]

If the DPJ and YP merge, than it's another brick in a super ideologically confused party.

[jaichind]

Japan GDP figures coming out 6:50PM EST Sunday 11/16 which is about 2 hours from now.  The numbers are the Q3 annualized QoQ which is expected to be 2.2%.  The CW is that 2.2% is too low given the disastrous -7.1% of Q2 annualized QoQ numbers and that the recovery from the consumption tax increase is too slow.

[jaichind]

Numbers that came out are disastrous.  Instead of 2.2% annualized QoQ  it was -1.6%  annualized QoQ and -0.4% QoQ pushing Japan into an recession.  At this stage there seems to no alternative to delaying the consumption tax which in turn means that Abe will for sure call an election. 

[Simfan34]

I suppose Abe is running against the tax here?

[jaichind]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30092633

Its on.

[jaichind]

I suppose Abe is running against the tax here?

Correct.  Although what is silly about this election is that there is no one taking the other side.  The DPJ also accepts that the tax increase should be delayed.  The main opposition to tax increase delay are some unnamed fiscal hawks in LDP.  So unless these LDP hawks are called out it will be an election where everyone agrees.  Of course the real agenda is to try to get a mandate before Abe has to make hard decisions which could be unpopular.   Like restarting the nuclear power plants (I was in Japan back in Aug 2014 and they have a real power issue) or an reinterpretation of the constitution to allow for the use of the Japanese military for collective defense.  Of course if Abe ran on these issues then there might be an significant reverse  for LDP.  This is why the election has to be officially about delaying the tax increases. 

[Vega]

I'm pretty sure the LDP will loose some seats... but they'll still have a large majority.

[jaichind]

Abe is setting the bar pretty low. 

"Shinzo Abe says he would step down if the coalition of his Liberal Democratic Party and Komei party fails to keep its majority in an upcoming election."

Yeah.  If a PM lead a coalition into an election it is pretty standard that he or she will have to resign and also resign the leadership of the now former ruling party.  Abe should really set the bar higher.  Something like "If the LDP-NKP fail to capture a 2/3 majority like in 2012 then I will view that a rejection of my policies and I will step aside for another LDP PM."  I guess he is too chicken to take gamble like that even though the odds are pretty good that he has a reasonable shot at maintaining a 2/3 majority.  Remember, the DPJ says that it only currently has possible candidates in 134 out of the 295 FPTP seats while the JIP only has 75 possible candidates out of the 295 seats.  I am sure they will come up with something but they might end up being joke candidates.  The DPJ and JIP are caught by surprise by the turn of events and are not ready for an election.  By projecting a lack of confidence, Abe could galvanize the opposition into tactical alliances to stop him.   

[Vega]

If the LDP-Komei coalition doesn't get a majority and he stays on, he wouldn't last long anyway.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Who is likely to replace Abe if he steps down?

[Vega]

Who is likely to replace Abe if he steps down?

I honestly don't know... maybe Shigeru Ishiba.

[jaichind]

Your Party disbands due to conflict on relationship between YP and LDP.   pro-LDP former YP leader Watanabe will most likely form a new party that is aligned with LDP.  Current YP MPs most likely will either join DPJ JIP PFG or become independent. 

I actually think this might be bad news for LDP.  I always felt that YP was a enabler of LDP victory.  It attracts anti-LDP center-right voters who would have gone to DPJ otherwise.  The demise of the YP would mean that these voter will either not turn out or vote for DPJ or JIP. 

[jaichind]

Is a good graph why Abe needs an election now and not later.  Abeconomics did achieve greater inflation but for the average Joe it has been more harm than benefit. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I saw a link saying that Japanese companies were still hoarding cash even with higher inflation rates :/

Is Ozawa's outfit going to finally vanish, or will they put up a token effort?

[jaichind]

I saw a link saying that Japanese companies were still hoarding cash even with higher inflation rates :/

Is Ozawa's outfit going to finally vanish, or will they put up a token effort?

The Japanese sector is very skeptical and risk averse given so many false starts at reform.  Hording cash reflects this concern is really an example of Ricardian equivalence as it will act to negate the stimulus efforts of Japanese officials.  These elections will be seen as another trick will make the Japanese private sector even more skeptical and risk averse.  They pretty much think at some time in the future it will be time to pay the piper with massive tax increase, mostly on capital to sort out this current fiscal and economic imbalance.  Why invest in capital when it will get taxed massively in the future.  So the solution is to horde cash.

As for PLP I think its time for Ozawa to merge it with DPJ and retire.  At some stage it is time to move on.  I doubt he will do so.