Japan Lower House election - Dec 14, 2014

[jaichind]

The JIP also that it has already agreed with the DPJ to field around 10 joint candidates.

[jaichind]

Two People's Life MPs, including the party's secretary general, defect to the DPJ.

It is always not clear to me other than ego, why PLP just does not merge back into DPJ.   Ozawa created PLP to oppose the consumption tax increase by DPJ PM Noda.  Noda is long gone and DPJ now opposes the consumption tax increase.  Also, the current, but ineffective, leader of DPJ, Banri Kaieda, was a former ally and lieutenant of Ozawa.   

[Vega]

I think I'll be supporting the LDP. There is no way they'll loose their majority, but it's best they have a large one for stability's sake. Abe hasn't done a horrendous job as PM.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I have no idea who I'm supporting. IF the SDP was in any way viable I'd support them; if Kōmeitō had any operational independence from the LDP, possibly them, even though I'm obviously not Nichiren Buddhist.

[Vega]

I have no idea who I'm supporting. IF the SDP was in any way viable I'd support them; if Kōmeitō had any operational independence from the LDP, possibly them, even though I'm obviously not Nichiren Buddhist.

Komeito seems to be relatively centrist, they could easily coalesce with the DPJ, but the LDPs have been the winners so they support them and are in their coalition.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri Shimbun which is a center-right paper has

Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval  49%/42%
Abeconomics approval/disapproval 45%/46%

65% disapprove of Abe's decision to call for early elections
59% support Abe's decision to delay consumption tax increase

parties support by approval rate

LDP    41%
DPJ    14%
NKP     6%
JIP      5%

Since this represents approval of parties and not intention of support it most likely overstates supports for LDP-NKP.

[jaichind]

Good news for NKP, Hashimoto of JIP will most likely not run in the upcoming elections and instead will focus himself on local elections next year.  JIP has its base in Kinki which overlaps NKP strongholds as well.  In 2012 JRP and NKP had a tactical alliance which helped NKP greatly for its Kinki FPTP candidates.  This time such an alliance will not be in place but JIP will pose a grave threat to NKP if Hashimoto himself and some other JIP heavyweights decides to run in the FPTP seats.  Without them NKP should still have an advantage in its seats although a JIP-DPJ alliance could still pose a threat.

[Vega]

Considering that 65% of the populace dissolves of early elections, I'm wondering what impact that will have on turnout.

[jaichind]

Nikkei poll

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval 44%/39%
Abeconomics approval/disapproval 33%/51%

PR list party support

LDP   35%
DPJ     9%
JIP      3%
NKP    3%
JCP     3%

[jaichind]

Considering that 65% of the populace dissolves of early elections, I'm wondering what impact that will have on turnout.

Well on the surface it will impact to lower turnout.  In the Yomiuri poll, respondents saying they were “interested in the upcoming election” accounted for 65%, down 15% compared with the corresponding figure in a Yomiuri survey conducted immediately after the previous lower house dissolution in 2012. The finding apparently reflects voters’ decreased interest because of the public perception that the election was called abruptly.

Recall that 2012 elections had one of the lower turnouts ever which was mostly a function of demoralized DPJ voters not coming out.  This time around with no clear vision of what DPJ will do if it were to win I suspect the same would be the case.  On the other hand, it seems that marginal LDP voters who are confused why an election is needed and disapprove of Abeonomics might also fail to turnout to leading to an even lower turnout.  In this uber-low turnout election, the gainers would be NKP and JCP, and even PFG.

[Vega]

I assume the JCP will have their regular 7-12 seats.

[jaichind]

I assume the JCP will have their regular 7-12 seats.

Actually, I think if the turnout is low, then the JCP might cross 10% on the PR vote.  If so at 10% should be enough despite the obvious regional variations for the JCP to quality for seats in all the PR regions of Japan.  In which case 10% should translate into 17-19 seats or so.

[Vega]

I assume the JCP will have their regular 7-12 seats.

Actually, I think if the turnout is low, then the JCP might cross 10% on the PR vote.  If so at 10% should be enough despite the obvious regional variations for the JCP to quality for seats in all the PR regions of Japan.  In which case 10% should translate into 17-19 seats or so.

Interesting. That would put them at a similar level they achieved in the 80s and 90s.

[jaichind]

Sankei poll.  Sankei is a pro-business newspaper.

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval  48.9%/37.9%

72.2% think it was not appropriate for Abe to call this election
41% for the ruling party to have equal power as opposition parties while 38% are for the ruling party to have greater power than opposition parties

PR vote

LDP     42%
DPJ      12.7%
JIP        7.6%
JCP       5.4%
NKP      4.8%

This poll has the highest support for JIP I have seen yet.  This poll also has LDP+NKP at 46.8% which is the largest yet.  I think this might represent a cieling for what LDP+NKP will get.  It seems interesting that 72% does not agree to have this election.  The drop-off in turnout this time around might be biased toward the non-machine part of the LDP vote and LDP+NKP end up less than 46.8% as indicated in this poll.

[Vega]

The DPJ wave is building!

[jaichind]

NHK poll for PR vote

LDP      39.9%
DPJ        9.7%
NKP        5.2%
JCP         3.0%
JIP          2.7%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A totally unbiased guide to the various political parties, starting with the four largest from the last election:

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) - officially a conservative party, it is in reality hideously corrupt clientelist organisation that has dominated political life in Japan since it was founded in 1955. In this respect it can be seen as being quite genuinely a conservative party as above all else it is in favour of keeping political and economic power in the hands of those who currently hold it. It is also firmly nationalist. Certain factions can be described as criminal conspiracies without fear of hyperbole, while there are also elements of the party that can be accurately and fairly described as 'fascist'. Exactly where the LDP stands in policy terms can be highly variable and often depends on its infamously byzantine internal politics. The LDP is currently adopting a populist persona (Abenomics on the one hand, shockingly unrestrained nationalism on the other) and thus far it has worked a lot better for them than the bumbling managerialism of the post-Koizumi years. It is currently led by Shinzō Abe who is serving his second term as Prime Minister. Abe is the grandson of controversial LDP founder (and sometime Prime Minister himself) Nobusuke Kishi. The LDP is joined at the hip with:

Komeito (formerly New Komeito and sometimes translated into English as - ironically - the Clean Government Party). Komeito is the political wing of the Soka Gakkai religious movement, a Buddhist sect that some people consider to be a cult (I'm not familiar enough with it to comment). Officially Komeito and Soka Gakkai are completely independent but this is, frankly, bollocks. New Komeito was founded by a merger of the old Komeito party (which was anti-LDP, amusingly enough) and a couple of fringe parties. It has recently returned to the old name. Komeito possesses a large and motivated vote bank and is thus an extremely useful ally to have. It is currently led by Natsuo Yamaguchi, not that the identity of it leader is terribly important.

And now the two largest opposition forces:

Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) - a rag-tag-and-bobtail coalition of anti-LDP parties and LDP splinter groups that fused into a nominally centre-left political party, the DPJ is in fact a human disaster masquerading as a political party. The DPJ has more factions than it does seats in the House of Representatives and includes market liberals, hick conservatives, multiple different varieties of socialist and many more tendencies besides those. For many years it was dominated by the frankly satanic figure of Ichirō Ozawa who buggered off elsewhere in 2012 amidst various scandals and policy disagreements. The LDP ed up so badly after Koizumi left office that the DPJ walzed to a massive landslide in 2009, sweeping incompetent nitwit Yukio Hatoyama (grandson of former PM and LDP founder Ichirō Hatoyama) into power. Hatoyama did not last long and was replaced by tired ex-leftist gadfly Naoto Kan who you may remember doing a truly spectacular job of handling the Fukushima disaster. He was replaced by Yoshihiko Noda (best known for comparing himself to a bottom-feeding fish) who was hammered by Abe in the general election. The DPJ is currently led by former TV personality Banri Kaieda.

Japan Restoration Party (JRP) - with a name like that, would you be surprised to learn that these people were not especially nice? The JRP was an out and out fascist party headed by creepy Osaka Mayor Tōru Hashimoto and featured a full deck of various other creeps, many of the drawn from the seedy world of Japanese local government (including repulsive former Tokyo governor Shintaro Ishihara). It polled stunningly well in 2012 - comfortably beating the bedraggled DPJ on the block vote, though winning less seats - but has since fallen victim to the usual factional brutalities. The remains of the JRP were merged with a bunch of defectors from the eternally ridiculous Your Party to form the Japan Innovation Party which is headed by Hashimoto and is about as unpleasant as the JRP was. Ishihara's faction formed their own fascist party and gave it the unbelievably creepy title of the Party for Future Generations which is officially led by former LDP hack Takeo Hiranuma.

Part two soon.

[Vega]

Nice profiles. I look forward to part two.

It's not a surprise that the Japanese reject their political system.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The only thing I'd add to that is that the PFG is even more despicable and fascist than either the JRP or the JIP. Otherwise, excellent overview so far.

Sōka Gakkai isn't a cult, but its leadership structure and worship style do tend to look troubling to outside observers. It's of roughly the same order as the Latter-Day Saints: Certainly not Scientology, but not Lutheranism either. It's technically an offshoot of Mahayana Buddhism's absolutely delightful Nichiren school, named after its to this day infamously codgerly grump of a Kamakura-period founder and best known for its almost Southern Baptist insistence on the complete sufficiency and infallibility of the text of the Lotus Sutra, its promiscuous incorporation of the spiritual practices of other Lotus Sutra-venerating schools, its disconcerting historical connections to a variety of different forms of Japanese nationalism from the relatively benign Edo-period kokugaku to the insanely godawful parafascism of the early Shōwa and beyond, and some sects' adherence to a comical preterist interpretation of Buddhist eschatology.

I still like it better than some forms of Zen.

[jaichind]

Very well written.  My comments are

1) LDP actually does have a more non-nationalist and dovish faction which is generally less vocal about it.  The LDP individual MPs pay lip service to the nationalists because they are often single issue voters just like the pro-Gun vote in the USA.  In realty the LDP is not that hawkish in policy historically.  Only when the power of factions began to decline under the Koizumi era that leaders like Koizumi and Abe would pander to the nationalist vote in policy although Abe seems to really believe in these policies.  Note that even recently LDP had more dovish PMs like Fukuda.  So it is not fair to say that the entire LDP is firmly nationalist although the Japanese nationalist does for sure form an important component to the LDP coalition.
2) The true name for JRP or Japan Restoration Party should really be Japanese Meiji Restoration Club.  The word here for Restoration 維新 is a a term from Chinese classical text which really mean reform.  So the name of the JRP was really trying to convey that the party wanted to reform Japan as dramatically as the Meiji Restoration reforms.  
3) One thing one should point out is that the NKP is actually fairly dovish on foreign policy and is a good counterweight to the hawkish faction within LDP.  
4) I love to get your description of the  Happy Realization Party.  It is really funny that it managed to get 1.1% of the FPTP vote in 2013 Upper House elections.  
5) The DPJ really destroyed itself over the consumption tax increase.  Noda insisted on it in even though it was a key part of the LDP policy proposal and NOT part of the DPJ policy proposal 2012 which in turn led to Ozawa leaving the party.  This lead to a complete loss of credibility for the DPJ and now the LDP is working to reverse this policy anyway.  So Noda thought he was saving Japan when he  destroyed his party for no lasting policy benefit.
6) FPG is really a new version of the Sunrise Party back in 2010 which had Ishihara as a godfather figure as FPG is today.

[jaichind]

See

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201411250044


Looking at recent developments from the DPJ and JIP point of view I am beginning to see what their strategy is.   YP is not running at all since they disbanded.  PLP is running 17 candidates versus 66 back in 2012.  JIP will run 73 candidates versus 172 for JRP in 2012.  DPJ is running 174 candidates versus 264 back in 2012.  There are only 24 seats where DPJ and JIP overlapp in terms of nominating a candidate.  In other words , in 199 out 295 FPTP seats the LDP-NKP will face JIP OR DPJ and not both where the anti-LDP vote would not be split.  In 24 seats, the DPJ and JIP would run at the same time and split the anti-LDP vote.  In 72 seats neither the DPJ nor JIP will run.  PFG is actually running 34 candidates which I think if anything will hurt LDP by splitting the nationalist vote.

So even if the LDP-NKP manage to produce a positive swing in its vote share in the PR which now seems likely (they will get 42%-43% I think versus 40% in 2012), the consolidation of anti-LDP vote will hurt LDP-NKP in the FPTP seats.  

Also looking at where the 72 seats are where neither the DPJ nor JIP will run tells us something about their strategy.  It turns out most of the 72 seats are filled with LDP candidates that are not aligned with Abe if not hostile to Abe.  So while DPJ-JIP could not stop a LDP-NKP majority, it could potentially stop an pro-Abe majority by killing off pro-Abe LDP MPs while leaving anti-Abe non-Abe LDP MPs a free pass.  The main goal is to wound Abe so that perhaps after the election he will have to step down and the resulting non-Abe LDP end up a weaker opponent for the DPJ the next election.

If the DPJ and JIP can manage to transfer their votes to each other, then I think the election result might be something like

LDP       232
DPJ       136
JIP          39
NKP        30
FPG         5
JCP         16
PLP          5
SDP         3
Others     9
---------------
            475

Where I still assume a low turnout election which helps NKP and JCP but included in it are good anti-LDP tactical voting plus a falloff in turnout for the marginal LDP voter given the confusion on why an election is needed.   If so then this election result would deny LDP-NKP the 265 seats it needs to control every committee which I must assume is Abe minimum goal.    

[Vega]

I like your seat mockup. Things would have to go well for it to happen, though.

By the way, what would quantify as a "low-turnout election"? Turnout being under 60%?

[Famous Mortimer]

I read up a little on Soka Gakkai when I went on a couple of dates with a woman who was a member (she stopped seeing me after she failed to convert me). I'd say it's a cult but of course that's all semantics. What makes them hard to classify is that unlike other alleged cults, they don't have any obviously insane beliefs. If they believed the Buddha was an alien or the Buddha was alive and leading a secret world government, it would make things much more obvious. As it is, their beliefs are fairly generic Buddhism. What makes them suspect is their hardcore proselytizing and their constant demand for money to do nothing specific. Of course, that also describes a lot of Evengelical churches in America as well.

[Famous Mortimer]

Oh, and I guess it's also a little weird that they have a political party.

Then again, SO DO AMERICAN EVANGELICALS!

[jaichind]

Sankei Shimbun magazine came out with its own projections



Which if you take the medium values you get

LDP    254
NKP     30
DPJ    117
JIP       42
PFG       8
JCP       8
PLP       5
SDP      2
Others  9
---------------
          475


They also assume some anti-LDP tactical alliances but feel it will not be a successful as hoped.  One difference between them and me is that I feel JCP will get to around 10% for PR vote while they have them around 6%.  They are also somewhat more optimistic on PFG where I feel they are a dud and will win around 1-2 FPTP seat and win only 2% PR vote but they feel they will do better.  We both agree that the DPJ comeback will be based on a surge in Hokkaido and Tokyo.