Japan Lower House election - Dec 14, 2014

[Vega]

Any ideas as to why the JCP is doing so comparatively well?

Well, in a low turnout election, when the Communist Party supporters are out in full force (as they always are), they're bound to do well as a party.

[jaichind]

Any ideas as to why the JCP is doing so comparatively well?

Low turnout.

[EPG]

They are gaining hundreds of thousands of PR votes in Kinki, Tokyo, and proably elsewhere too.

[Vega]

Uhhh... Banri Kaieda just got knocked out in his district and proportional representation....

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Shintaro Ishihara and Yoshimi Watanabe both look to be defeated.
 

Yep, mentioned that earlier.  This seems to be the death of personality based parties.

Good.

Uhhh... Banri Kaieda just got knocked out in his district and proportional representation....

Haha, priceless.

[Vega]

Uhhh... Banri Kaieda just got knocked out in his district and proportional representation....

Haha, priceless.

Indeed. Yet the DPJ is still set to gain like 8 seats so far.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Uhhh... Banri Kaieda just got knocked out in his district and proportional representation....

Haha, priceless.

Indeed. Yet the DPJ is still set to gain like 8 seats so far.

I'm seeing more than that, closer to fifteen.

Even though the ruling coalition is picking up a few seats in this election, I take some comfort in the fact that the source of that gain is Kōmeitō rather than the LDP. I'll take what I can get out of this situation.

[Vega]

Yeah, this wasn't a terrible election for the DPJ.

Now the next election we need to be watching is for DPJ President, after Kaieda resigns.

[Vega]

The Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Nishikawa Koya lost his constituency race, however he was revived in the Proportional Representation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any ideas as to why the JCP is doing so comparatively well?

The JCP is basically a cult (albeit a rather benign one) and one that has been doing well in the recruiting stakes recently (including young people, extraordinarily enough). Its supporters always vote.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Nishikawa Koya lost his constituency race,

Thank God.

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Crap.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Shintaro Ishihara and Yoshimi Watanabe both look to be defeated.

[EPG]

Asahi and NHK have called all seats. Compared to 2012:

LDP 290 (-4)
Komei 35 (+4)

DPJ 73 (+16)
JIP 41 (new; -1 from dissolution)
JCP 21 (+13)
PFG 2 (new; -17 from dissolution)
SDP 2 (nc)
PLP 2 (new; -3 from dissolution)
Ind 9 (+4)

JIP + PFG are down from to 43. JRP + YP scored 72 in 2012.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who are the indies?

[Vega]

Who are the indies?

Some are actual independents, but others are small, regional parties.

I think Tax Cuts Japan managed to win a couple seats, and Okinawa Mass won a constituency seat.

The independents tend to be pro-LDP or pro-DPJ. I think there are 3 pro-DPJ indies and 4 pro-LDP indies.

[EPG]

My estimates of the PR vote from NHK figures:

LDP 17,560,837 (33.1%; +5.3%)
Komei 7,282,790 (13.7%; +1.8%)

DPJ 9,739,571 (18.3%; +2.9%)
JIP 8,359,479 (15.7%)
JCP 6,037,201 (11.4%; +5.2%)
PFG 1,408,251 (2.7%)
SDP 1,310,822 (2.5%; +0.1%)
PLP 1,026,634 (1.9%)
HRP 258,444 (0.5%; +0.2%)
Sano Hidemitsu's list 104,854 (0.2%)
NRP 16,562 (0.0%)

JIP + PFG won 9,767,730 (18.4%), down from 17,507,814 (29.2%) for JRP + YP in 2012.

[Vega]

I can't believe the Happiness Realization Party is still a thing, and that it got over 200,000 votes.

[Zuza]

This seems to be the death of personality based parties.

Except JIP?

[Vega]

This seems to be the death of personality based parties.

Except JIP?

They barely avoided disaster, and were banking on a big seat gain initially.

[Peter the Lefty]

Soooo, I take it the SDP will probably just merge with another party at this point?  DPJ or PLP being the big question...

[Vega]

Soooo, I take it the SDP will probably just merge with another party at this point?  DPJ or PLP being the big question...

No, they still have success at the Prefectural level of government. They'll probably just exist in limited scale anymore on the national political scene.

They would be idiots to merge with the DPJ. And they sure as hell wouldn't merge with the PLP, who, like them, has 2 seats.

[EPG]

JIP is still close to DPJ on PR votes. DPJ has existed for less than two decades and has enjoyed one disastrous term in office. In the medium term, they may come to some arrangement to take power, but Japan is a country where rotation in office is evidently not a necessary part of democracy in the medium term.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Silliness aside, one thing to note is that when the opposition (in whatever guise) has taken power in Japan it has made a complete hash of things. Think we can be fairly sure now that LDP dominance can only be truly broken if that changes...

[Vega]

Silliness aside, one thing to note is that when the opposition (in whatever guise) has taken power in Japan it has made a complete hash of things. Think we can be fairly sure now that LDP dominance can only be truly broken if that changes...

To be fair, the first time that the LDP lost power, it was due to an 8-Party Coalition.... basically every party at the time but the LDP and Communists. It's hard to govern in that kind of an environment.

But yeah, there is no excuse for the DPJ's constant screw-ups.