Japan Lower House election - Dec 14, 2014

[Vega]

If he calls it on December, 14th when would it actually be held?

Also, you beat me to the punch on creating a thread for this.

[Vega]

If the DPJ and YP merge, than it's another brick in a super ideologically confused party.

[Vega]

I'm pretty sure the LDP will loose some seats... but they'll still have a large majority.

[Vega]

If the LDP-Komei coalition doesn't get a majority and he stays on, he wouldn't last long anyway.

[Vega]

Who is likely to replace Abe if he steps down?

I honestly don't know... maybe Shigeru Ishiba.

[Vega]

Shame the DPJ and YP couldn't officially merge. I think the general "opposition" will gain from their dissolution.

Also, Ozawa is only 72. I foresee him being around for at least another decade. Though he'll probably merge back into the DPJ at some point. He himself is a junk bond quickly depreciating.

[Vega]

The Japanese love weekend elections... and I do too.

Glad to see some of the YP MPs make the jump to the DPJ.

[Vega]

I hope NHK will provide results in English like they did in 2012. Too bad they took down the page like a day after election day.

[Vega]

I hope NHK will provide results in English like they did in 2012. Too bad they took down the page like a day after election day.

I have the advantage of knowing Kanji because it is pretty much just Chinese.  So any Japanese results website I can understand 80% it and then I can figure out the rest.  These English website for NHK will have results but it will be delayed relative to the Japanese language one and have much less rich data (like were the outstanding results are and regional distribution) which will be very useful to project what the final results will be.  It would be like giving you vote count in a US election without telling you which counties report and how much.

Alright. So I guess we'll be on the Asahi Shimbun? Or do you have another favorite?

[Vega]

I think I'll be supporting the LDP. There is no way they'll loose their majority, but it's best they have a large one for stability's sake. Abe hasn't done a horrendous job as PM.

[Vega]

I have no idea who I'm supporting. IF the SDP was in any way viable I'd support them; if Kōmeitō had any operational independence from the LDP, possibly them, even though I'm obviously not Nichiren Buddhist.

Komeito seems to be relatively centrist, they could easily coalesce with the DPJ, but the LDPs have been the winners so they support them and are in their coalition.

[Vega]

Considering that 65% of the populace dissolves of early elections, I'm wondering what impact that will have on turnout.

[Vega]

I assume the JCP will have their regular 7-12 seats.

[Vega]

I assume the JCP will have their regular 7-12 seats.

Actually, I think if the turnout is low, then the JCP might cross 10% on the PR vote.  If so at 10% should be enough despite the obvious regional variations for the JCP to quality for seats in all the PR regions of Japan.  In which case 10% should translate into 17-19 seats or so.

Interesting. That would put them at a similar level they achieved in the 80s and 90s.

[Vega]

The DPJ wave is building!

[Vega]

Nice profiles. I look forward to part two.

It's not a surprise that the Japanese reject their political system.

[Vega]

I like your seat mockup. Things would have to go well for it to happen, though.

By the way, what would quantify as a "low-turnout election"? Turnout being under 60%?

[Vega]

Are there any seats where the LDP and KP are both running candidates?

[Vega]

If the DPJ can at least hit 60 seats, I'll be somewhat happy.

[Vega]

Considering how Japan needs stability, the term limit on being President of the LDP and therefore Prime Minister is a little bit odd.

Does the DPJ have a similar term limit?

[Vega]

Early voting seems to be up 10% from 2012 which sends a mixed signal that turnout might actually not fall that much and perhaps increase.  We will see. 

That's a good sign.

[Vega]

Polls has opened so voting in progress.  Heavy snow in Northern and Eastern Japan but Tokyo has good weather.

See  http://www3.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/ for results at 8PM Tokyo/6PM EST for results.

Where do you go for the results on that page? At 8PM will they just come up?

[Vega]

Shintaro Ishihara and Yoshimi Watanabe both look to be defeated.
 

[Vega]

Any ideas as to why the JCP is doing so comparatively well?

Well, in a low turnout election, when the Communist Party supporters are out in full force (as they always are), they're bound to do well as a party.

[Vega]

Uhhh... Banri Kaieda just got knocked out in his district and proportional representation....