NC: No, Hagan won't run in 2016

[Miles]

As much as I like her, I agree with this analysis: its just not meant to be.

Reasons:

1) Nationally, if Obama fatigue persists, Democrats would do better running fresh faces.
2) She just went through a grueling campaign; why do it again when she starts out worse-off than she did this cycle?
3) Give someone else a turn: Democrats have a decent bench in NC.
4) The (primary) reason she was competitive was because Tillis wasn't an A-lister and she could tie him to the legislature.

I've always said that Hagan, in 2008, just happened to be in the right place at the right time (sort of like Tillis this year).

[Bacon King]

In 2008 I was acquainted with someone whose father was a Democrat in the NC State Senate, and he claimed that Hagan was mostly known for being an inconsequential ditz. Definitely just in the right place at the right time

[Bigby]

In 2008 I was acquainted with someone whose father was a Democrat in the NC State Senate, and he claimed that Hagan was mostly known for being an inconsequential ditz. Definitely just in the right place at the right time

Sounds like a lot of politicians these days.

[IceSpear]

Meh, I disagree.

1) Their main point seems to be "2016 will be like the GOP's 2008, because reasons, therefore run from Obama, and Hagan is too close to Obama". Yeah, because running from Obama worked SO well this cycle. And running from Bush worked out SO well for the Republicans in 2008.

2) Because she wants to? Maybe she doesn't, but is the person who wrote the article that close to Hagan that they know whether or not she wants to wash her hands of politics? As for senators who lose re-election then win again 2 years later..Slade Gorton.jpg. It's not like this is ancient history, he should've done his homework.

3) With Cooper running for governor, Marshall already losing to Burr, and NC Dems getting decimated from gerrymandering, there really isn't a strong bench at all. And considering he just wrote about how Hagan is too close to Obama to run, why in the world would he talk up the merits of OBAMA'S transportation secretary?

4) Fair enough, but Burr isn't exactly a formidable opponent, nobody even knows who he is. She'll also have presidential year turnout on her side.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, Hagan's not an especially strong candidate nor is she especially well liked. Doesn't make sense.

Now Brad Miller! There's a political has been I wouldn't mind getting in the race.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Brad Miller is not going to beat Richard Burr.

In 2008 I was acquainted with someone whose father was a Democrat in the NC State Senate, and he claimed that Hagan was mostly known for being an inconsequential ditz. Definitely just in the right place at the right time

The Republicans and Liddy Dole blew 2008 at so many different points it wasn't funny. The equivalent would have been Shaheen losing in NH I think in terms of a one term incumber who is in the lead for most of the cycle but lets it slip away in the end. The godless ad was a mere icing on the cake that doubled the margin.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Janet Cowell looks like our best shot here.

[Vega]

I don't think Hagan has any real unique assets. She was a product of 2008 and running against Dole didn't hurt.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hagan just got swept up in this year's tsunami, and is still a good candidate. As long as 2016 looks to be a neutral or democrat-favoring year, I think the democrats should run her again.



I would have liked her to hold on this year though....

[Holmes]

So now we dislike Hagan and think she was weak?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So now we dislike Hagan and think she was weak?

She ran a good campaign and narrowly lost (admittedly in a Republican tsunami and probably due at least in part to McCory and the NC legislature's voter disenfranchisement legislation) in a God-awful year to an extremely weak and generally awful Republican candidate.  I can only speak for myself, but I don't particularly like or dislike her.  In a state like North Carolina, my chief concern is electability.  If she can't beat Tillis as an incumbent than she probably won't beat a much stronger opponent (Burr) as a challenger.

[henster]

There's Janet Cowell and Anthony Foxx why would NC Dems want to run someone who just lost.

[King]

Hagan was not a terrible candidate but not a good one either. She was elected on Elizabeth Dole being terrible and lost on hatred of Barack Obama. She's Generic Democrat.

[henster]

Ds need to run someone who's not been in DC with no voting record to attack I think the Janet Cowell is the perfect candidate to take on Burr.

[IceSpear]

So now we dislike Hagan and think she was weak?

She ran a good campaign and narrowly lost (admittedly in a Republican tsunami and probably due at least in part to McCory and the NC legislature's voter disenfranchisement legislation) in a God-awful year to an extremely weak and generally awful Republican candidate.  I can only speak for myself, but I don't particularly like or dislike her.  In a state like North Carolina, my chief concern is electability.  If she can't beat Tillis as an incumbent than she probably won't beat a much stronger opponent (Burr) as a challenger.

You can't really compare a 36% turnout election with a 60% turnout election.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Romney won NC with Presidential level turnout. Burr is far stronger, doesn't have to take responsibility for a 17% approval rating in a chamber he runs. They have mediscare and tax breaks to ship jobs overseas canard like with every NC dem these days, but that plus all of Tillis unpopular stuff didn't stop him, just those two alone aren't going to defeat Burr in 2016.

[IceSpear]

Romney won NC with Presidential level turnout. Burr is far stronger, doesn't have to take responsibility for a 17% approval rating in a chamber he runs. They have mediscare and tax breaks to ship jobs overseas canard like with every NC dem these days, but that plus all of Tillis unpopular stuff didn't stop him, just those two alone aren't going to defeat Burr in 2016.

Burr is stronger than Tillis because he isn't toxic, but he's still anonymous. If Hillary carries the state (a strong possibility), he'd be in hot water.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Romney won NC with Presidential level turnout. Burr is far stronger, doesn't have to take responsibility for a 17% approval rating in a chamber he runs. They have mediscare and tax breaks to ship jobs overseas canard like with every NC dem these days, but that plus all of Tillis unpopular stuff didn't stop him, just those two alone aren't going to defeat Burr in 2016.

Burr is stronger than Tillis because he isn't toxic, but he's still anonymous. If Hillary carries the state (a strong possibility), he'd be in hot water.

Burr has twelve years of leadership in the Senate on matters relating to the military, agriculture and foreign policy. He has also branched out recently into healthcare and voted for the repeal of DADT. He is annonymous because he keeps his mouth shut, which will also make him just that much more difficult to defeat because his not some preening narcissist who has to be on every Sunday show embarrassing the state. Once the campaign gets going, the polling will reflect positively on Burr and any Democrat would be hard press to establish a clear justification to toss him whilst Burr will have seceral reasons why he should be reeelcted and at the end of the day, after all theattacks on Tillis, Hagan lost because she failed to sell herself as a good as much as she sold Tillis as a bad.

[Holmes]

Who the hell is Richard Burr, anyway? Anonymity is a horrible trait to have in elective politics. Democrats would do well to define him in a negative manner before the campaign even begins. Wolf did it rather easily to Corbett.

[IceSpear]

Romney won NC with Presidential level turnout. Burr is far stronger, doesn't have to take responsibility for a 17% approval rating in a chamber he runs. They have mediscare and tax breaks to ship jobs overseas canard like with every NC dem these days, but that plus all of Tillis unpopular stuff didn't stop him, just those two alone aren't going to defeat Burr in 2016.

Burr is stronger than Tillis because he isn't toxic, but he's still anonymous. If Hillary carries the state (a strong possibility), he'd be in hot water.

Burr has twelve years of leadership in the Senate on matters relating to the military, agriculture and foreign policy. He has also branched out recently into healthcare and voted for the repeal of DADT. He is annonymous because he keeps his mouth shut, which will also make him just that much more difficult to defeat because his not some preening narcissist who has to be on every Sunday show embarrassing the state. Once the campaign gets going, the polling will reflect positively on Burr and any Democrat would be hard press to establish a clear justification to toss him whilst Burr will have seceral reasons why he should be reeelcted and at the end of the day, after all theattacks on Tillis, Hagan lost because she failed to sell herself as a good as much as she sold Tillis as a bad.

You raise some good points. Here's a hypothetical scenario: Hillary carries the state by a couple points (not saying this will definitely happen, but it's a realistic possibility). Who are the Hillary/Burr crossover voters that will save him? And will they be enough to cancel out the archaic (albeit rapidly declining) Jeb/statewide Dems voters?

Who the hell is Richard Burr, anyway? Anonymity is a horrible trait to have in elective politics. Democrats would do well to define him in a negative manner before the campaign even begins. Wolf did it rather easily to Corbett.

Corbett was already defined negatively before anyone even knew who Wolf was.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Who the hell is Richard Burr, anyway? Anonymity is a horrible trait to have in elective politics. Democrats would do well to define him in a negative manner before the campaign even begins. Wolf did it rather easily to Corbett.

As Icespear said, Corbett defined himself with his own actions.

Romney won NC with Presidential level turnout. Burr is far stronger, doesn't have to take responsibility for a 17% approval rating in a chamber he runs. They have mediscare and tax breaks to ship jobs overseas canard like with every NC dem these days, but that plus all of Tillis unpopular stuff didn't stop him, just those two alone aren't going to defeat Burr in 2016.

Burr is stronger than Tillis because he isn't toxic, but he's still anonymous. If Hillary carries the state (a strong possibility), he'd be in hot water.

Burr has twelve years of leadership in the Senate on matters relating to the military, agriculture and foreign policy. He has also branched out recently into healthcare and voted for the repeal of DADT. He is annonymous because he keeps his mouth shut, which will also make him just that much more difficult to defeat because his not some preening narcissist who has to be on every Sunday show embarrassing the state. Once the campaign gets going, the polling will reflect positively on Burr and any Democrat would be hard press to establish a clear justification to toss him whilst Burr will have seceral reasons why he should be reeelcted and at the end of the day, after all theattacks on Tillis, Hagan lost because she failed to sell herself as a good as much as she sold Tillis as a bad.

You raise some good points. Here's a hypothetical scenario: Hillary carries the state by a couple points (not saying this will definitely happen, but it's a realistic possibility). Who are the Hillary/Burr crossover voters that will save him? And will they be enough to cancel out the archaic (albeit rapidly declining) Jeb/statewide Dems voters?

I don't see Jeb as the nominee.

Jeb/Statewide Dem voters (like Bush/Easley or McCain/Perdue) are gone. There are a lot who will vote Democrat on a candidate by candidate basis and the Republicans ran some really crappy people for Auditor and so forth. I voted for Beth Wood against the Republican in 2012 for Auditor. Cooper has a personal vote at this point but he is running against McCrory last I checked.

There are people out west who would vote Hillary/Burr with Jeb as the nominee unless you had a Heath Shuler running against Burr who could block that out. Burr can outperform Jeb in Winston Salem metro as well. There are also swing voters in both Charlotte Metro and the Triangle that voted Obama/Romney, would be open to Hillary (especially with Bush running) but would vote to reelect Burr as well.

Hillary needs to get up to high single digits to put Burr in a situation where it becomes difficult to find a parth to victory.

[Lincoln Republican]

Where's John Edwards when the Dems need him?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Where's John Edwards when the Dems need him?

That is there problem. The NC Democratic Party is built on running trial lawyers as po workin folk populists who shares your values and will fight for your economic interests, while secretly he is an out of touch lawyer who lives in two Americas, the America where he is a well respected populist in his own head and the other where he is real self, a dishonest, liberal ambulance chaser. At least half a dozen have been exposed has the corrupt crooks they are over the past decade and several more have had the false veener of centrism torn down. That is why they rely so much on demographic change because so many of the old rural Democratic voters have come to distrust that decade's old song and dance.

[Lincoln Republican]

Where's John Edwards when the Dems need him?

That is there problem. The NC Democratic Party is built on running trial lawyers as po workin folk populists who shares your values and will fight for your economic interests, while secretly he is an out of touch lawyer who lives in two Americas, the America where he is a well respected populist in his own head and the other where he is real self, a dishonest, liberal ambulance chaser. At least half a dozen have been exposed has the corrupt crooks they are over the past decade and several more have had the false veener of centrism torn down. That is why they rely so much on demographic change because so many of the old rural Democratic voters have come to distrust that decade's old song and dance.

Thank you.  You picked up on my sarcasm very well.

[henster]

Cowell is close to Wall Street she won't have problem raising the $$ to compete with Burr and she's a blank slate pretty much.