Australian Federal Redistribution 2016

[morgieb]

So apparently the determinations have come out for the 2016 determination for entitlement to members in the House of Representatives.

This is important because the entitlements have changed. Accordingly there has to be a redistribution in New South Wales (who lose a seat) and Western Australia (who gain one).

Discussion etc. about the possibilities here.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Link about prospects of a new seat of Whitlam in NSW.

I personally think they should rename the Division of Werriwa Whitlam, because despite Werriwa being a Federation division and an Aboriginal name:

• Werriwa is the local Aboriginal name for Lake George, which is nowhere near the modern-day version of the seat, and hasn't been for years.
• Gough Whitlam was the seat's most famous and admired representative.

As for the new seat in my state, I think it will be created in south-eastern Perth, resulting in run-on effects around the metropolitan area, and to a lesser extent in rural areas, although I wouldn't be surprised if Canning was pushed out of Armadale.

[Knives]

If there is any God they will redistrict me out of Kevin Andrews seat.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

If there is any God they will redistrict me out of Kevin Andrews seat.

I'm pretty sure Victoria's not being redistributed this time, it was redistributed not long before the last election.

[morgieb]

If there is any God they will redistrict me out of Kevin Andrews seat.

There won't be a redistribution in Victoria this election. IIRC though you're due for one before the 2019 election so you may get new boundaries then.

My condolences for living in Kevin Andrews's seat.
Anyway, two links about speculation as to what might happen in the redistributions.

http://www.tallyroom.com.au/20035 - NSW
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/20042 - WA

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Liberals would like to see the 16th seat named Court, after former Premier Sir Charles Court, while Labor would prefer Beazley, after former Federal Education Minister Kim Edward Beazley.

[Platypus]

Beazley is a far more important name in WA, of course, but it's probably time for an aboriginal name in WA, or to bring back Kalgoorlie, push O'Connor heavily into Forrest, Canning, and Pearce... nah, too complex.

Looking at that link and adding a bit of my own thoughts to it, it looks like the solution might be for Hasluck to extend it's northern boundary a bit into Pearce, and maybe take a small chunk out of Perth and/or Swan, and maybe even a bit of Cowan; the southern part of Hasluck becoming the core of the new seat along with pockets of Tangney, Fremantle, and a reasonable chunk of Canning; Canning taking in a bit of Brand and Forrest.

In NSW, it's hard to see where the removal should be, although Greenway/Mitchell might be candidates, even though that's part of the Sydney growth area? Maybe Bennelong? Hunter does seem like a reasonable but unfortunate choice.

[morgieb]

Beazley is a far more important name in WA, of course, but it's probably time for an aboriginal name in WA, or to bring back Kalgoorlie, push O'Connor heavily into Forrest, Canning, and Pearce... nah, too complex.

Looking at that link and adding a bit of my own thoughts to it, it looks like the solution might be for Hasluck to extend it's northern boundary a bit into Pearce, and maybe take a small chunk out of Perth and/or Swan, and maybe even a bit of Cowan; the southern part of Hasluck becoming the core of the new seat along with pockets of Tangney, Fremantle, and a reasonable chunk of Canning; Canning taking in a bit of Brand and Forrest.

In NSW, it's hard to see where the removal should be, although Greenway/Mitchell might be candidates, even though that's part of the Sydney growth area? Maybe Bennelong? Hunter does seem like a reasonable but unfortunate choice.

I wouldn't name the new seat Beazley at this stage as the most famous one isn't dead yet. I don't know much about famous Australian figures from WA though.

For NSW, I think the growth shortfalls are on the North Coast, but removing a seat there will probably require a radical redraw of rural NSW....probably not something the AEC will have the balls to do (look at how they backed down on the Victorian redistribution back in 2010). One thing at Antony Green suggested we might see is that a Hunter-based seat and a Southern NSW-based seat will be abolished and a new rural Mid-Western seat is created in its place.

[Knives]

They should abolish Warringah.

[morgieb]

They should abolish Warringah.

Abbott would just win preselection in a neighbouring district if that happened though. You have to remember that that part of Sydney has 5 uber-safe Liberal districts.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Apparently SA came very close to losing one and the ACT gain a third ... which would almost certainly be a Tuggeranong-based marginal. But considering what Abbott is doing to the ACT economy, that wouldn't hold anyway.

In NSW, it's almost certain that it won't be in Sydney, with one of the Hunter or upper-West seats going.

[Talleyrand]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/04/14/western-australia-redistributed-act-one/

Both the Liberals and Labor have submitted proposals, with both proposing a division of Hasluck to create a notionally Liberal seat with a margin of 3% (in other words, probably winnable for the ALP in the right circumstances), although they differ heavily on the proposed boundaries. Labor wants to name it Tonkin after a former Labor Premier while the Liberals want to name it Court after the father-son duo of Liberal Premiers.

Lots of interesting tidbits in the rest of the article too regarding seats like Swan and Cowan. Apparently there's also a state redistribution coming up soon, and seats like Kalgoorlie are predictably contracting heavily.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Cool.  Since Australia has a 'Washminster' type government, it's kind of funny how gerrymandering is so much in control there.

[Talleyrand]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/08/21/wa-federally-redistributed/

The draft boundaries are out. A new Liberal seat of Burt with a 5% margin has been created, which will likely be very marginal for the next election. Liberal margins in Hasluck and Swan have been slightly boosted, while their margins in Cowan and Stirling have slightly reduced. All in all, probably a wash in terms of partisanship.

[Barnes]

Looks like Perth will have its majority cut down to 2% for the ALP.

[BaconBacon96]

So does this mean the House is expanding by a seat?

[MaxQue]

So does this mean the House is expanding by a seat?

No, see first post of the thread.

So apparently the determinations have come out for the 2016 determination for entitlement to members in the House of Representatives.

This is important because the entitlements have changed. Accordingly there has to be a redistribution in New South Wales (who lose a seat) and Western Australia (who gain one).

Discussion etc. about the possibilities here.

[Barnes]

Here's the draft boundaries of Burt as released by the AEC.



Link to the full AEC report on the WA redistribution.