Obama to announce executive order on immigration (user search)
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  Obama to announce executive order on immigration (search mode)
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Author Topic: Obama to announce executive order on immigration  (Read 16819 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« on: November 13, 2014, 08:28:49 PM »

Message to the GOP...



Obama and the Dems want you to shut down the government over this. They know that the only GOPer to win the PV in the last 6 elections (Bush 2004) got 44% of the Latino vote (by supporting immigration reform) and Mitt Romney got 27% (by pushing 'self-deportation')
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2014, 09:28:30 PM »

Romney did not lose in 2012 because of immigration or Hispanics. It might have been closer, but Hispanics had nothing to do with Romney losing OH, IA, NH and Wisconsin and Romney needed at least one of those (OH) even with VA, FL and CO where minority voting had an impact.

Romney would have lost amongst Hispanics anyway for the same reason he lost overall because he offered nothing that could promise a better outcome for low income working and middle class voters. No healthcare alternative, nothing stubstantive on education, didn't endorse minimum wage hike until over a year afterwards and so forth.

Mitt Romney actually did better with whites than Bush Jr. (59% vs 58%). So Romney's loss is entirely down to his extremely poor performance with non-whites. Romney 'self-deportation' and hard anti-immigration positions in the primaries (along with others in the party) were definitely a factor.

The 2013 GOP autopsy noted that the party lost because of how poorly it did with the 'Obama coalition' and mostly talked about communicating better with young voters, women, LGBT and minorities. But there was only one single policy position it endorsed: comprehensive immigration reform. 

The math is simple. If the rise in the non-white % continues into 2016 and if the GOP gets the same 18% as the last two elections, they will need 64% of the remaining white vote to win, something they have only done once in the last 10 elections (Reagan 84).
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2014, 02:54:40 AM »

Polling against it you say?

Pew Oct. 15-20 (Adults)
"Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are now living in the U.S.? They should not be allowed to stay in this country legally. OR, There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met."
Stay:    71    
Not stay:       25    

2012 General Election Voters Exit Poll
"Most Illegal Immigrants Working in U.S. Should Be..."
Offered legal status: 65
Deported: 28

2014 Midterm voters Exit Poll (should be very GOP friendly)
"Most Illegal Immigrants Working in U.S. Should Be..."
Offered legal status: 57
Deported: 39

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Sept. 4-7, 2014 (Adults)
 "If Congress does not act to address the immigration issue, do you think Obama should or should not take action on his own through executive orders?"
Should: 52
Should not: 44



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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2014, 03:14:56 AM »
« Edited: November 14, 2014, 03:21:22 AM by Likely Voter »

...even Romney's 27% was the third or fourth best performance for any Republican in the last 50 years.

Yes but the 2 of the 3 below Romney were because Perot was splitting the vote and the other time was Ford when Latinos were only 1% of the vote. As for Asians, Romney is the all time worst.

GOP LATINO VOTE
Bush Jr (04) 44
Reagan (80) 37
Bush Jr (00) 35
Reagan (84) 34
McCain (08) 31
Bush Sr (88) 30
Romney (12) 27
Bush Sr. (92) 25 (Perot 15)
Dole (96) 21 (Perot 9)
Ford (76) 18

GOP ASIAN VOTE
Bush Sr (92) 55 (Perot 15)
Dole (96) 48 (Perot 8 )
Bush (04) 43
Bush (00) 41
McCain (08) 35
Romney (12) 26

So in terms of the two party vote, Mitt Romney is certainly the all time loser for both Latinos and Asians. In fact they were two of the only groups that swung away from the GOP between 08 and 12. I wonder why.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2014, 03:39:32 PM »
« Edited: November 21, 2014, 03:42:30 PM by Likely Voter »

If the GOP is really upset about this then pass a bill to deal with the undocumented. They can either find a path to legal status or appropriate funds (2012 study estimated to be $285B) to deport them all. Those are their two choices.
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Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2014, 11:47:56 PM »

How does one define 'protect the border'?  We already have record number of agents and immigration is already at a net zero. Plus almost half of the illegal immigrants flew here and overstayed their visas. The 'secure the border first' thing is a red herring. But even still the Senate comprehensive bill threw a few more billion at the border to appease, so why wasn't that good enough?

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