NV-2016: "Heck no!"

[Miles]

Article.

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[moderatevoter]

Clever title.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Intimidated by the Big, Mean Reid Machine.

[hopper]

Maybe 2022 I could see Heck him running for US Senate especially if Reid runs in 2022. I think Reid will retire in 2022 though.

[Free Bird]

You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Scared off by Sandoval. Nice.

[KCDem]

Sandoval isn't running. You Republicans and closet-Republicans need to stop the circle jerk.

[Vega]

Sandoval isn't running. You Republicans and closet-Republicans need to stop the circle jerk.

If I was Sandoval, I'd run.

[Holmes]

If Sandoval doesn't want to be a US Senator then he shouldn't run.

[The Other Castro]

You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining

[hurricanehink]

You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining

[DrScholl]

You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining

It's not that serious. Besides, Republicans just won a bunch of Senate seats, it's not like they need more.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining

It's not that serious. Besides, Republicans just won a bunch of Senate seats, it's not like they need more.

The more the merrier. We are taking all the marbles we can. Why shouldn't we? Plus, it is not like we are taking out Debbie Stabenow. This is Harry Finksing Reid, the Democratic leader. We ought to target him for the symbolism alone.

[Vosem]

Rather doubt Sandoval is going to run, but Heck was never going to either. I've seen a lot of speculation around former Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (who intended to run in 2010, but was caught up in a scandal, but then totally exonerated by a jury -- may not be an ideal candidate but definitely wants it) and current Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison (who I think would be better -- ran 7 full points ahead of Romney to win a Las Vegas state Senate district as a first-time candidate in 2012, and then totally demolished a Democratic "rising star" by 26 points in 2014).

[DrScholl]

You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining

It's not that serious. Besides, Republicans just won a bunch of Senate seats, it's not like they need more.

The more the merrier. We are taking all the marbles we can. Why shouldn't we? Plus, it is not like we are taking out Debbie Stabenow. This is Harry Finksing Reid, the Democratic leader. We ought to target him for the symbolism alone.

Symbolism isn't really a good reason for contesting a race, especially when Republicans have to play defense in 2016. Besides, from rumors I've been seeing, Sandoval won't be running, because Reid cut a deal with him.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The only reason for Sandoval not to run is if he has his eye on another office opening up that year.

[Vosem]

You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining

It's not that serious. Besides, Republicans just won a bunch of Senate seats, it's not like they need more.

The more the merrier. We are taking all the marbles we can. Why shouldn't we? Plus, it is not like we are taking out Debbie Stabenow. This is Harry Finksing Reid, the Democratic leader. We ought to target him for the symbolism alone.

Symbolism isn't really a good reason for contesting a race, especially when Republicans have to play defense in 2016. Besides, from rumors I've been seeing, Sandoval won't be running, because Reid cut a deal with him.

We're targeting Reid because he's horrendously unpopular, and already has two undeserved victories under his belt -- 1998 when he was behind and the unpopularity of congressional Republicans let him win by less than 700 votes, and 2010 when he faced a complete nutjob and still only won by like 6%. Offense is the best kind of defense, and Reid at the moment is clearly the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat up in 2016.

I think Sandoval won't be running because he prefers being Governor and will recruit someone competent to run for the GOP (like he did for the Lieutenant Governors' race in 2014). But if you like the thought that Reid cut a deal with a Republican Governor to survive, I guess you can entertain it.

[DrScholl]

You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining

It's not that serious. Besides, Republicans just won a bunch of Senate seats, it's not like they need more.

The more the merrier. We are taking all the marbles we can. Why shouldn't we? Plus, it is not like we are taking out Debbie Stabenow. This is Harry Finksing Reid, the Democratic leader. We ought to target him for the symbolism alone.

Symbolism isn't really a good reason for contesting a race, especially when Republicans have to play defense in 2016. Besides, from rumors I've been seeing, Sandoval won't be running, because Reid cut a deal with him.

We're targeting Reid because he's horrendously unpopular, and already has two undeserved victories under his belt -- 1998 when he was behind and the unpopularity of congressional Republicans let him win by less than 700 votes, and 2010 when he faced a complete nutjob and still only won by like 6%. Offense is the best kind of defense, and Reid at the moment is clearly the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat up in 2016.

I think Sandoval won't be running because he prefers being Governor and will recruit someone competent to run for the GOP (like he did for the Lieutenant Governors' race in 2014). But if you like the thought that Reid cut a deal with a Republican Governor to survive, I guess you can entertain it.

Again, symbolism isn't exactly a good reason to target someone. Reid's numbers aren't great, but he can get things done and that's the reason he's gets elected. A senator is supposed to do more than just talk or make jokes, or try to be cute, it is an actual job, you know.

And rumor has it that Reid didn't bring out his turnout machine in 2014 in exchange for Sandoval not running in 2016 (not that I think Sandoval was running anyway). Reid supposedly did the same thing with Ensign in 2006, a non-aggression pact. It's just a rumor, but not one I made up.

[Vosem]

You almost gave me a heart attack because I thought this was Sandoval declining

It's not that serious. Besides, Republicans just won a bunch of Senate seats, it's not like they need more.

The more the merrier. We are taking all the marbles we can. Why shouldn't we? Plus, it is not like we are taking out Debbie Stabenow. This is Harry Finksing Reid, the Democratic leader. We ought to target him for the symbolism alone.

Symbolism isn't really a good reason for contesting a race, especially when Republicans have to play defense in 2016. Besides, from rumors I've been seeing, Sandoval won't be running, because Reid cut a deal with him.

We're targeting Reid because he's horrendously unpopular, and already has two undeserved victories under his belt -- 1998 when he was behind and the unpopularity of congressional Republicans let him win by less than 700 votes, and 2010 when he faced a complete nutjob and still only won by like 6%. Offense is the best kind of defense, and Reid at the moment is clearly the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat up in 2016.

I think Sandoval won't be running because he prefers being Governor and will recruit someone competent to run for the GOP (like he did for the Lieutenant Governors' race in 2014). But if you like the thought that Reid cut a deal with a Republican Governor to survive, I guess you can entertain it.

Again, symbolism isn't exactly a good reason to target someone.

My post was getting at symbolism not being the reason the Republican Party will target Reid. Rather, it is the deep contempt in which many Nevada voters hold Reid that is the key reason.

Reid's numbers aren't great, but he can get things done and that's the reason he's gets elected. A senator is supposed to do more than just talk or make jokes, or try to be cute, it is an actual job, you know.

Reid's victories in 1998 and 2010 were both due to not just the hard, competent work the Reid campaign put in (which I am not denying -- Reid runs a good operation) but they were put over the line by forces entirely not under Reid's control. In 2010 especially, a competent candidate (like Joe Heck, incidentally) would probably have won.

And rumor has it that Reid didn't bring out his turnout machine in 2014 in exchange for Sandoval not running in 2016 (not that I think Sandoval was running anyway). Reid supposedly did the same thing with Ensign in 2006, a non-aggression pact. It's just a rumor, but not one I made up.

Reid and Ensign really did have a non-aggression pact, which was totally public (Ensign's family members would donate to Reid's campaigns for instance) and above-board. That's why Reid wasn't challenged in 2004 and why Ensign wasn't challenged in 2006 -- otherwise both would have been very vulnerable both years. But while the rumor exists, there's not much reason to think Reid and Sandoval have a non-aggression pact -- otherwise Reid wouldn't have backed Lucy Flores so strongly and Sandoval certainly wouldn't be publicly considering challenging Reid right now.

I also find the idea that Reid has a "turnout machine" to be a little ridiculous. The man ran one good campaign against a god-awful opponent and won -- the reason it looked so impressive at the time was because of polling failure. NV-2012 was a very real, competitive Senate race, where Reid went all in for Shelley Berkley, and she still lost -- where was the Reid machine?