The Future is Here!

[Maxwell]

2020 Watch - Garcetti running, King challenging Romney



48% Garcetti
41% Romney

42% Romney
39% Schatz

41% Romney
35% Locke

The first serious person to run for the Democratic nomination has announced his candidacy for the Democratic Party. The first two Democrats to announce, Former Ambassador to China Gary Locke and Hawaii Senator Brian Schatz, have since then raised very few funds for their respective campaigns. Garcetti, meanwhile, is sitting on $40 Million dollars from his victory in 2016 over Devin Nunes, and is a proven force in the Democratic Party. Garcetti leads in the polls and has a progressive record, but has received criticism from the left over corporate tax reform and working with Republicans, while his 98% Progressive Rating from Primary Colors gives conservatives plenty of ammunition.

64% Romney
19% King

Meanwhile, President Mitt Romney has hit a record low, 38% approval rating. With scandals abound, his previous workingly touch has fallen flat in the beginning of his third year, and trails any Democrat with above 20% name recognition. Now, he receives his first primary challenge in Congressman Steve King, who is running almost solely against the supposed Romney amnesty bill that doesn't look like it will pass over Senate objections. Privately, Republicans are clamoring for Romney to abandon ship and let Vice President Walker, a much more popular figure among conservatives, to run instead.

2019 Watch - Dardenne sticks to Independence

The Independent Governor of Louisiana Jay Dardenne, instead of jumping to the Democratic Party, has decided to run as an independent. The Democratic Party in the state, however, has refused to seriously recruit against the Governor, with some prominent state senators even endorsing him, calling him a “bipartisan leader for Louisiana values”. Despite his independence, Dardenne holds strong but soft leads over potential Republican challengers (42-35 over Former State Senator Elbert Guillory, 41-35 over Congressman Garret Graves, and 43-34 over Attorney General Jeff Landry). This will be one of the more fascinating elections of 2019.

Congress votes to withdraw troops from Iraq

In one of the first votes in the new Congress, members of the body voted to force the President to put forward a timeline for troop reduction in Iraq. The mission has proved to be something a quagmire, with the deathtoll of American troops increasing, most members are demanding a change of strategy. Florida Senator Gwen Graham gave a watched around the world speech chastising the President over the deaths of troops in the region, which has given her significant attention. President Romney says he has no plans to change strategy, saying in his state of the union - "we must defeat our enemies wherever they are, for the good of our citizens, and for the good of our country, and ISIS is the absolute enemy of what we represent".

[Maxwell]

Early March - Romney not to run for re-election!



26% Walker
13% Labrador
11% Cotton
6% Fiorina

Facing long odds, 33% approval, and Republicans definitively plotting to dump him, President Romney has announced he will not run for re-election. He leaves behind a weak economy, a messy foreign policy situation, and a economic stalemate with Russia. Random Republicans are scrambling for their potential campaigns, with Scott Walker, Raul Labrador, Tom Cotton, and Carly Fiorina the most obvious candidates.

The progressive leader of the Democratic Party, Al Franken, has announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination. He holds a strong percentage of the vote in a potential match-up, but most observers view a Franken candidacy as an ideological fight rather than a real contestant for the nomination. Nevertheless, Franken has a high amount of resources, and will probably continue to have a medium level of support throughout most of the contest.

Democrats are hoping to recruit Kirsten Gillibrand, someone who isn't as tainted by his agreement with the Romney administration as Eric Garcetti, but isn't as unelectable as Al Franken. Gillibrand has $50 Million CoH from her previous campaign, but while she is talking to certain Democratic politicos, her response in interviews is hostile and definitely "no".

[tmthforu94]

Obviously the most unrealistic part is the notion that Romney would be a poor President, but otherwise good job!

[Person Man]

Obviously the most unrealistic part is the notion that Romney would be a poor President, but otherwise good job!

Carter looked good on paper...

[Maxwell]

Republican field begins to come together as Walker flounders



18% Walker
16% Pence
14% Labrador
13% Cotton
8% Portman
6% Blackburn
5% Fiorina
2% Jindal
2% King
1% Hogan*
3% Others
12% Undecided

* means "has yet to announce"

It's month six of the Republican primaries, and despite a frontrunner already in the works, this frontrunner is floundering hard. Investigations into his record as Wisconsin Governor are turning up more and more evidence of crooked behavior. A press conference recently went especially poorly, when at end he told the press, in a panicked manner, "I am not a crook". Republicans have since pounced on his fairly consequential drop in the polls, with Indiana Governor Mike Pence, Idaho Senator Raul Labrador, and Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton emerging as as the next up to take the Republican mantle.

The rest of the candidates are basically fighting for relevancy. Portman's strong numbers are a testament to his mighty fundraising, but his poll numbers in both Iowa and New Hampshire are consistently poor, and indicative of someone who is going to blow both. Marsha Blackburn's strategy is "wait til South Carolina". We'll see how that goes. Former Treasury Secretary Carly Fiorina's campaign is considered a joke amongst serious challengers, but her tax proposals have a good number of ground activists excited, including the Former Presidential candidate Herman Cain, who endorsed her candidacy in Late May.

The most significant collapse besides Walker was Congressman Steve King of Iowa. Steve King, after Romney's abandonment, seemed to be the perfect usurper of the large Tea Party base, enough to possibly swat a potential establishment line-up. That didn't pan out as planned, with Sen. Labrador announcing his own candidacy as soon as possible. King's consistently offensive remarks have put him in the hot seat with his own party, leading Senator David Perdue of Georgia to call him "a supreme jackass". King has even fallen to the level of the consistently irrelevant Bobby Jindal.

The wild card in this race is Maryland Governor Larry Hogan. His electoral prowess in a state that is as blue as it gets is unparallelled, and many seeing him as someone who could change the party's electoral strategy. Moderates who want Hogan cite his conservative social views as a reason he could win the Republican primaries, which puts him a strong step ahead of Portman, whose social views have continued to evolve to the left.

Democrats fill up, Garcetti leads the pack



40% Garcetti
19% Franken
12% Graham
7% Hassan
4% O'Malley
1% Murphy
1% Schatz
0% Locke
3% Others
13% Undecided

The last entrant to the Presidential race for the Democratic side is an unsurprising yet untested option - Florida Senator Gwen Graham. Graham is a moderate on a good deal of issues, including the death penalty, energy, and is considered a budget hawk on the Democratic side. However, she's a foreign policy dove, striking a stark contrast to Garcetti's interventionist humanitarianism, and she's against tax cuts, voting strongly against the Romney compromise tax reform that Garcetti voted for. Her announcement definitely positioned herself as an independent populist.

Still, it's clear that the Democratic field seems to be, from most commentators perspectives, Eric Garcetti and the 7 dwarves. Franken, though well-known, is considered too liberal to win and too old to compete, with his fundraising numbers consistently under expectations. Graham is not well known and considered too moderate to be embraced by the Daily Kos crowd but too liberal to be embraced by the Democratic moderates, who are satisified with the pragmatic tone struck by Garcetti. The rest of the field is laughable - Governor Maggie Hassan is running an issues campaign that, though admirable, clearly voids her of any chance of winning. Governor MArtin O'Malley is running on getting his name back in the news, and though his poll numbers are surprisingly high, they still drift in and out of the margin of error. And the last three (Senator Chris Murphy, Senator Brian Schatz, Former Ambassador Gary Locke) are so completely irrelevant and forgettable that THEY may forget they're running for President.

The wild card of the race, the one person who would've made a Garcetti candidacy more difficult, decided definitively not to back in April. Kristen Gillibrand, one of the Democrat's top Presidential recruits, decided she would not run based on her latest efforts to curtail D.C. police authority. Gillibrand, however, would not make an endorsement in the race, saying "it's not fair to judge this early". However, most on the inside consider her working relationship with all of the candidates but Franken to be strained. 

[Maxwell]

Up to September in the Presidential races

July 2019 - After months of anticipation, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan announces his candidacy for the Presidency of the United States. Polling at a mere 2%, his name recognition is by far the lowest of the field, and yet many in the press see him as a bridge between hardcore conservatives and moderates. Hogan's infrastructure is strong, and he has the endorsements of some prominent New England Republicans (including, in secrecy of course, President Romney). The first debate of the cycle occurs without Hogan, and Tom Cotton and Rob Portman stood out as leaders, with Pence having a Perry-esqe moment on foreign policy, and most of the candidates riding Walker on his Gubernatorial corruption.

The first Democratic debate also occurred around this time, with only the three frontrunners standing out. Garcetti, as the frontrunner, faced attacks from all sides of the room, with dark horse candidate Brian Schatz lobbing the best line, calling him "Silicon Valley's Senator". Graham called out Garcetti on his voting record, saying she stands for the Democratic Party "when it matters". Besides those charges, Garcetti looked presidential, and the debate was considered a good one for his candidacy Despite Garcetti's lead, his numbers are poor in early states, particularly in Iowa, where he leads Franken by a measely four points.

August 2019 - Ames Iowa Straw Poll occurs, and Raul Labrador wins easily, though Cotton's second place showing is solid considering his unimpressive fundraising. Former Governor Bobby Jindal withdraws from the race after an embarrassing fifth place showing. Fiorina's equally unimpressive sixth place showing does not dissuade her from running, but her polling continues to sink in Iowa and New Hampshire. Senator Labrador's abrasive style continues to be a problem for him in debates, as Cotton bests him in an exchange over military force. Vice President Walker is indicted over his corruption charges, with his poll numbers nearly bottoming out by the end of August. He shows no signs of leaving the race. Cotton surges to the lead, with Pence and Labrador barely behind, followed by the rest of the field (Portman, Blackburn, Walker, Fiorina, and Hogan) straggling behind.

Schatz's words in July have a stunning coincidence when Senator Garcetti begins to face problems over his fundraising. A particular Silicon Valley start-up stood to benefit massively from a bill Garcetti wrote, and that same start-up did a good deal to back his Senate and his Presidential candidacy. Facing a substantial amount of heat over the issue, Garcetti has yet to give back the money, calling this a "manufactured controversy". Franken uses this to expand his candidacy by fighting for campaign finance reform. Graham's fundraising is continually impressive, and her anti-war rhetoric is making her a popular candidate among Democratic activists who view Franken as too unelectable.

September 2019 - Just as Cotton pulls to a lead, he begins to face difficulties. Cotton's campaigning style is considered stiff, and he faces attacks over his support of minimum wage increases and voting alongside Democrats on certain trade deals. Mike Pence gets a solid bump in the polls after an impressive improvement in his debate performances. Rob Portman lands the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce, which isn't entirely surprising. Portman hasn't seen much luck in either Iowa or New Hampshire, so national spotlight has fallen on his national strategy, as he has been in Florida and Minnesota far more often than Iowa.

A couple of months of bad luck for Garcetti ends in a press conference in California, where he answers all of the questions bluntly and honestly, and gives back the donation to said start up company. Along with that, Garcetti performs consistently well in debates, facing accusations head on and beating back Franken and Graham, knocking Franken as "impractical" and Graham as a "flip flopper", over her big change on energy issues this month and supporting ethanol subsidies after years of being against them.

September Republican Polling
21% Cotton
18% Pence
14% Labrador
10% Portman
9% Blackburn
8% Walker
5% Fiorina
3% Hogan

September Democratic Polling
36% Garcetti
20% Franken
17% Graham
6% Hassan
4% O'Malley
2% Schatz
1% Murphy
1% Locke

[Maxwell]

Before the Iowa Caucuses



48% Garcetti - 44% Cotton
50% Garcetti - 39% Pence
46% Garcetti - 40% Labrador

47% Graham - 45% Cotton
48% Graham - 39% Pence
45% Graham - 41% Labrador

45% Franken - 46% Cotton
46% Franken - 42% Pence
44% Franken - 41% Labardor

October 2019 - President Romney approvals hit a record low at 28%, and Republican voters are looking for someone different. Republican voters are looking for a principled candidate who stands against the secrecy of the current administration. As a result, Walker and Fiorina continue to drop off the face of the earth, while Raul Labrador rises. Labrador's abrasive style has turned from a negative to a positive, and his controversial (for Republicans) stands on pot issues and military issues are starting to gain amongst younger voters, especially compared to Senator Cotton's stiff style and neoconservative policy. He receives endorsements from both Head of the Heritage Foundation Ted Cruz and Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, both touting him as a "fighter for liberty". Former Candidate Ron Paul dies this month of natural causes.

Senator Gwen Graham faces questioning over his record in the House and Senate. During her first two years in the House, she only voted with the Democrats 71% of the time, while her first two years in the Senate had her only voting with the Democrats 81% of the time. Garcetti charged her as a Johann come lately who has embraced liberal positions after it was okay to do so. Graham's responses has so far been that she votes with the party when it matters. It dents her current rise. At the end of the month, after slightly declining numbers, she fires her campaign manager.

November 2019 - Vice President Walker, seeing a do it or get out situation, uses his attack dog status as VP to attack the man he was ordered to attack for - President Romney. Chastising the economic situation and fiscal instability, Walker runs as the "most fiscally and socially conservative candidate of the field", and enjoys a brief resurgence. However, his corruption charges continues to dog him heavily, too far to ever win. Some say that Walker is staying in to hold down Pence and allow for Cotton to win the nomination, who is viewed as the most likely candidate to overcome the President's unpopularity and win. Pence himself fell in hot water lately when he made a gaffe about trade relations with South America.

Ambassador Gary Locke withdraws his candidacy for President, citing a lack of funds. Locke backs Garcetti, calling him a "true leader that the Democrats need". Big Business Democrats begin to coalesce around Garcetti, putting even more money into his coffers than previously given. Brian Schatz, a minor candidate receives the endorsement of Former President Barack Obama, citing his progressive record and his electability. Despite that, Schatz's candidacy is further made irrelevant by it, as Obama is criticized for throwing his considerable influence around a non-contender. Graham picks up major endorsements from anti-war groups.

December 2019 - Democrats and Republicans broker an economic deal that will cut spending, hike taxes, and give certain credits that will create jobs. What little capital the President has left, he used to put this deal forward. Conservative Republicans (Labrador and Cotton included) voted against it, calling it a "huge tax hike on ordinary Americans", and Senator Al Franken voted against it as well, calling it a "corporate bailout", but most of the Senate, including Garcetti, Portman, Graham, Murphy, and Schatz, voted for the bill, which passed with flying colors.

Iowa is shaping up to be a dogfight between the three frontrunners - Labrador, Cotton, and Pence. Pence, who led throughout most of the campaign, is starting to feel the crunch after his record in Indiana has been fully unmasked and proven not as conservative as once thought. Now Labardor and Cotton have fully caught up and, like most national polls, shows the three in a dead tie. New Hampshire has Cotton in a strong position, with Labardor in second, but Hogan and Portman not too far behind. Portman lead at some point earlier, but has been down for a long time, seeing as he has not been a perfect fit for the state. Hogan has been surging in the state, and after unveiling a platform far more conservative than originally credited for, has been a bridge between the moderate and conservative wings of the party.

Meanwhile, for the Democrats, Iowa is seen as a battle between Eric Garcetti and Al Franken. Franken, who pulled to a lead in the state during the summer, has held it consistently since, with Garcetti being considered a poor fit for the state. Graham runs a distant third there, but some say her organization is far more impressive than her showing allows. Garcetti leads convincingly everywhere else, including New Hampshire, where he has a strong base of support even against the Governor, Maggie Hassan, who has run an irrelevant campaign.

December Republican Polling
19% Cotton
19% Pence
19% Labardor
11% Portman
9% Walker
8% Hogan
6% Blackburn
3% Fiorina

December Democratic Polling
35% Garcetti
23% Franken
21% Graham
7% Hassan
5% O'Malley
2% Schatz
1% Murphy

[Maxwell]

Cotton wins Iowa Caucuses



Republican Iowa Caucuses
24.6% Cotton
24.5% Labrador
22.0% Pence
11.3% Blackburn
9.2% Walker
3.7% Portman
2.3% Fiorina
0.8% Hogan
1.6% Others

Senator Tom Cotton defeats Senator Raul Labrador in a dogfight to win the Iowa Caucuses. Cotton, a more conventional Republican with an interesting life story and a military background, proved to be a good fit for Iowa voters. Cotton originally was not a strong contender in the early states, but improved his ground game in Iowa and New Hampshire, and with a good deal of both Tea Party and Establishment support, pulled out. Labrador's margin of loss is impressive, but Labrador is somewhat weakened by the loss due to a necessity to win the state. Governor Mike Pence, the original frontrunner in Iowa, still has South Carolina, but is definitely weakened by his third place showing in the state.

After an embarrassing fifth place showing even with spending ten million dollars in Iowa, Vice President Scott Walker withdraws from the race. Noting the toxicity of his name, he refuses to endorse any candidate, but insiders considers his candidacy as a hampering on Mike Pence, and a reason for Cotton's victory in the state. Carly Fiorina withdraws as well, getting seventh in a field of eight. Hogan, who almost took his name off the ballot in Iowa, got less than 1% in the state, but establishment figures still consider him to be a top contender in New Hampshire. Portman's performance is considered far weaker, as he had contended the state early in the campaign, before realizing he was a poor fit.

Post-IA Republican Polling
31% Cotton
23% Labrador
21% Pence
9% Portman
8% Hogan
4% Blackburn

Democrats coming up...

[Maxwell]

Franken wins Iowa, Graham impresses



Democratic Iowa Caucuses
31.5% Franken
29.8% Graham
23.7% Garcetti
7.3% O'Malley
4.2% Hassan
1.2% Murphy
0.8% Schatz
1.4% Others

Senator Al Franken, as many expected, won the Iowa Caucuses, but the most impressive (and the real winner in most cases) performance was Senator Gwen Graham. Graham polled in a distant third most of the campaign in Iowa, but experienced a surge of sorts in the last days of December after she hit every single county in the state. She proved to be far better at retail politics than originally given credit for. Part of her rise is due to her populist campaigning style, with some calling her the "anti-Romney", going after the 1%, Wall Street, and Silicon Valley, a slight at Garcetti's appeal to the business segment of the Democratic Party.

Iowa voters sent a distinct message to Eric Garcetti - don't take this nomination for granted. He polled behind Franken in Iowa, but was still thought to land an easy second. That proved not to be the case. Senators Chris Murphy and Brian Schatz dropped out of the Presidential contest, with Murphy backing Graham and Schatz backing Garcetti. It looks like the Democrats have a real race on their hands this time around.

Post-Iowa Democratic Polling
32% Graham
30% Garcetti
26% Franken
4% Hassan
3% O'Malley

[OnlyAlb]

This is a very good timeline. Sad to see Romney being a failure. Hopefully Portman can win the nomination.

[Maxwell]

Larry Hogan defeats Cotton in New Hampshire



Republican New Hampshire Primary
32.5% Hogan
28.9% Cotton
16.2% Labrador
9.3% Portman
8.2% Pence
3.6% Blackburn
1.3% Others

In his dark horse quest for the White House, his constant targeting of the state of New Hampshire finally pays off. Hogan, considered a moderate among the field, recently unveiled a tax plan more satisfactory to conservatives, while he successfully targeted Cotton's weakness among non-Tea Party voters, occupying that moderate space as well, calling Cotton "a radical who can't win". This is a big day for Hogan and a big jump for him in the polls. Cotton was expected to win the primary on the strength of establishment conservatives, but independents flocked heavily to Hogan. Labrador's third place showing was more or less expected, if not fairly disappointing for a candidate who actively targeted the state, but proved too fiscally conservative for the states more moderate tendencies.

Portman's big gamble tonight backfired. Portman, who, after attempting a nationwide campaign on the issues, took these last few weeks to campaign specifically in the state of New Hampshire. His failure to even reach double digits speaks volumes on his weakness in early states. His numbers are starting to fall down after a poor performance here, and Portman drops out after a day or two of bad press, and promptly backs Hogan. Mike Pence performed about as expected, and he plots on South Carolina instead. Marsha Blackburn vows to continue onto South Carolina, but her numbers prove to be concrete and weak, and she has no chance at the nomination thus far.

Post-New Hampshire Republican Polling
32% Cotton
24% Hogan
19% Labrador
17% Pence
3% Blackburn

[Senator Cris]

This is a great timeline!

[Emperor Charles V]

This is amazing! Please keep this up!

[Maxwell]

Garcetti wins New Hampshire!



Democratic New Hampshire Primary
35.1% Garcetti
30.2% Graham
18.1% Franken
12.4% Hassan
3.6% O'Malley
1.6% Others

After a great closing pitch, Eric Garcetti pulls out a solid victory in New Hampshire. Graham, originally not set up for a chance at New Hampshire, scrambled quickly in the region, and expected to pick up Independent voters heavily. What turned out to happen was a GOP primary with solid independent turnout, and the floor fell out for Graham. But the margin of victory, less than five percent, certainly meant this primary is going to go on, as Graham is heavily favored in South Carolina.

Maggie Hassan's performance meant she is no longer a serious candidate, and she withdrew the night of. She gave a surprising endorsement of Gwen Graham, which was surpsining in that many expected her to back Garcetti, as she had been known to be more friendly with him than Graham. This has gotten a widely negative response from the Garcetti camp, calling her a traitor. Martin O'Malley performed weakly as well, but vows to continue onto South Carolina. As for Al Franken, his performance in New Hampshire is strong, but his relevance in the race is declining.

Post-New Hampshire Democratic Polling
41% Garcetti
37% Graham
16% Franken
2% O'Malley

[Maxwell]

February Updates

Republicans - After what looked like a stalemate between Tom Cotton and Mike Pence, Pence wins South Carolina in a rout. Pence was polling in last, but received a heap of endorsements from top rank conservatives who saw Cotton's somewhat populist platitudes threatening. Labrador is becoming increasingly irrelevant in this race, with Hogan, Pence, and Cotton receiving heavier replay in the press. Florida is a dogfight between Tom Cotton, Mike Pence, and Larry Hogan. However, Cotton's far superior monetary resources and campaign infrastructure pulls him a strong victory in the important state, along with over 100 delegates. Pence, placing a strong second place, vows to continue onward. Hogan, satisfied with 3rd, goes onward in the race. In a slightly less relevant race on the tail of end of February, Raul Labrador gets his first victory in Nevada, routing the rest of the candidates.

End of February Republican Polling
33% Cotton
27% Pence
24% Hogan
13% Labrador

Democrats - As expected, Graham romps Garcetti in South Carolina, whose victory is largely contributed to rare agreement amongst white and black Democrats against Garcetti and Franken. Due to Graham's state of residence, Florida is pushed back far later, but Michigan is the replacement state, which Graham wins in an upset. Black voters are drawn to her message of "good education, no matter how we get there", while Garcetti's beholden nature to public schools isn't viewed as a positive in those regions. Garcetti fires his campaign manager after Graham's victory in Michigan, and hires one of the Former Obama campaign directors. Garcetti wins Nevada with over 60%, to the surprise of nobody. Al Franken continues to plot on future caucus states, calling both candidates unacceptable.

End of February Democratic Polling
42% Graham
40% Garcetti
15% Franken

Nation - President Romney receives a small bounce in his approval after the economic situation begins to improve again, with 200,000 jobs created in the month of February and unemployment dropping back below 8%. Nevertheless, at 35% approval, Romney is being called the "Republican Carter". After his State of the Union, where he said we lived in an "instant gratification culture", the comparison became more real. His main agenda as a leaving incumbent is something of a redemption move - immigration reform. Working with strong Democratic majorities, a considerably watered down measure is expected to pass the House in March. Cotton's position is unknown, Pence and Labrador are strongly against it, and Hogan is for it.

[Maxwell]

March Updates



57% Cotton
26% Pence
15% Labrador

Republican Primaries - After a rough beginning, by the end of March things are looking all the way Cotton. On Super Tuesday, Cotton picked up Ohio in an upset over Pence, and picked up Massachussets in an upset over Hogan. After Super Tuesday, Larry Hogan, in a surprise, withdrew from the Presidential contest to back Cotton. Many suspect Hogan is preparing to run in 2024, and a prolonged primary would lower his chances of winning. Pence plans to stay in, even after a recent loss in Louisiana.

45% Graham
39% Garcetti
12% Franken

Democratic Primaries - After a strong Super Tuesday, Gwen Graham is now definitively ahead of Eric Garcetti in the race for the Democratic nomination. Al Franken wins Vermont and Minnesota, and continues to be a influential presence in the race, but his relevance has been fading rapidly. Franken is considering dropping out, but vows to continue onto April. After Super Tuesday, Garcetti polled behind by over 10 points, but has since started recovering his numbers with a couple of strong final debate performances and a definitive win in Illinois.

Nation - With the Republican primaries starting to settle down, Cotton gets a notable bump, and is running far ahead of Romney's approvals. With Romney at 38% approval, Cotton beats both Garcetti and Graham. Despite Republican control for four years, Cotton is perceived as leadership material, standing against his party in favor of certain popular economic proposals, including a national minimum wage hike. Fiscal conservatives and Republican doves, however, are still apathetic about his nomination, and will likely require him to pick someone from that wing of the party.

48% Cotton - 43% Graham
49% Cotton - 44% Garcetti

[Maxwell]

Surprise in Delaware - Biden beats Coons



61.3% Biden
38.7% Coons

In a surprise race, Governor Beau Biden beat Senator Chris Coons by a whopping twenty point margin. The race was very negative, with Biden attacking Coons record as Senator, promising a more progressive way forward. Coons criticized Biden's budget management, as he has had dozens of fights with legislators over the budget. In a desperate last attempt, Coons attacked Biden as a product of nepotism and not hard work. This attack backfired heavily, and what originally looked like a narrow Coons advantage turned into a landslide victory for Biden. The Republicans have their first competitive candidate for Delaware Senate in a long time in Ed Harycki, CEO of Swift Capital and a self-funder, and even the popular Biden faces a fight in the general election, though he does have a distinct advantage with a 59% approval rating (though down from 66% approval rating when he started the campaign).

The Governor race in Delaware is even more competitive. State Treasurer Ken Simpler announced his candidacy for Governor, and he faces Lieutenant Governor Mark Denn. Denn is considered a weak campaigner, and Simpler has a record of statewide victory in a tough state for Republicans. Delaware is beginning to look like a bright spot in a year where Republicans are going to have a tough time.

[Maxwell]

Felt like doing a small/fun update

[Maxwell]

April Presidential Race - Graham decisively ahead, Franken backs out



51% Graham
44% Garcetti

Democratic - In the race for President, Gwen Graham had another very good month. While Garcetti won New York, he won it narrowly. The rest of the states in the primary, Graham sweeped. Even Wisconsin, a primary Franken was expected to win. After Wisconsin, Franken withdrew from the Presidential contest, and backed Graham mid-April. Thanks to the proportional way the Democrats allocate delegates, Garcetti is still in it, and the margin of California in June ultimately means the primaries still matter. Nevertheless, it looks more impossible than ever to see a Garcetti nomination.

Republican - After the Northeast primaries, Governor Mike Pence and Senator Raul Labrador dropped out and endorsed Tom Cotton for the general election. The Democratic National Committee immediately aired ads with clips of Raul Labrador calling Cotton - "The last man in the country I'd vote for - and that includes Democrats" and Mike Pence calling Cotton - "a weak leader, and a weaker candidate". Nevertheless, Cotton was riding high in April, campaigning in Wisconsin, and tackling the Democratic frontrunners. Vice Presidential picks are being discussed, and Politico did a list of potential VP candidates and their strengths and weakness.

Nation - Immigration Reform is stalled by Democrats who view Republicans as taking too much on the border security.  Expert maneuvering by Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) defeated the current bill. President Romney gave an address, chastising the Democratic Party for defeating the bipartisan bill that easily passed the house. A wildfire in rural Oklahoma ate up a small town. Governor Joe Dorman is praised for his leadership on the matter, with only a couple people dying in the blaze.

POLITICO's Republican Vice Presidential List

New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte -
Pros: She's a high and riser, from a swing state, has grown as a Senator over the years.
Cons: A hawk like Cotton, pro-ISIS, generally very closer to the administration.

Iowa Senator Joni Ernst -
Pros: Rising star in the party, from a swing state, Tea Party favorite, charismatic.
Cons: Leaves an open spot for her re-election attempt, fringe positioning could harm her, too similar experience to Cotton.

Nevada Senator Mark Hutchison -
Pros: An establishment favorite, would moderate the ticket. Defeated a Former Democratic minority leader. Very influential for how long he's been in the Senate.
Cons: Not a lot of experience, has a penchant for anger, Nevada wouldn't likely flip with him on the ticket. Could alienate non-hawks and conservatives.

Indiana Governor Mike Pence -
Pros: Unites fiscal conservatives around the ticket, lots of experience, rallies the base. Looks very Presidential, and he's pretty much the second strongest personality among the possibilities.
Cons: Not from a swing state, outshines the nominee, and is not a strong debater at all.

Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker -
Pros: A risky choice, but could push the boundary of how far Cotton could win.
Cons: A risky choice, and could alienate conservatives definitively (social liberal, no foreign policy, denounced religious right in a recent speech).

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul -
Pros: A good deal of Senate experience, has become a leader on Prison issues, and could unite the dove and fiscal conservative factions of the party, and could appeal to African Americans.
Cons: could alienate the very people that like Cotton, could be a disaster if certain aspects of his life are exposed.

[Lief 🗽]

This is great! Could we get maps for the primaries?

[Maxwell]

This is great! Could we get maps for the primaries?

I can do that either later tonight or tomorrow! Thanks man!

[Maxwell]

June - End of Primary Season

Senator Gwen Graham (D-FL) - 29 States
Senator Eric Garcetti (D-CA) - 18 States + DC
Senator Al Franken (D-MN) - 3 States

Despite an end of June sweep for Senator Garcetti, it was pretty clear that he had lost the nomination by April. Instead of being a sore loser, Garcetti gave an enthusiastic endorsement in his home city of Los Angeles, calling Graham a great leader who will "take this country back!". Garcetti's fundraising machine will ultimately be a model for future Democratic candidates, as he lost despite outraising Graham almost 2-to-1. The wave against his bad votes just turned out to be too much for the candidate.

The first poll of the Presidential race since the nominees have been basically decided showed Graham at 50%. Cotton's favorable ratings have been positive, but have significantly lowered due to the rigors of campaigning. Cotton, since his race in Arkansas, has been considered a weak campaigner, but has survived the Republican primary based on his life story and his ability to fundraise. He's also been tagged for his controversial votes on the farm bill and corporate tax reform.

Graham's first act as a major candidate is the unveiling of her broad economic policy, which is a combination of stimulus spending, tax credits that give incentives to American job creation, and a more cautious view on free trade agreements. Never the friend of Wall Street, her policies have so far alienated business types in favor of blue collar whites, the type who used to vote Democrat before the Obama and Clinton days.

51% Graham - 44% Cotton

Vice President Walker resigns

In the oddest press conference of all time, Vice President Scott Walker resigns from office in disgrace, sounding victorious the whole time. During the speech, he claimed America "vanquished it's foes" and that he "stood up for liberty, freedom, and our Constitutional way of life" as Vice President, denouncing critics as "fools and idiots". Speculation is that Walker is taking pain pills since his recent back surgery, and that is the reason he sounded so odd in his resignation. All indications from the trial is that he may be headed to jail.

President Romney's Vice Presidential speculation is all cabinet members. The few current Senators originally suspected of being the pick immediately denied it, with one humorous denial coming from Georgia Senator David Perdue, who said "I'm not suicidal". The top speculated picks are Chief of Staff Mike Leavitt, Education Secretary Tim Pawlenty, or even Former New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg.

Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) - 35 States, D.C.
Governor Mike Pence (R-IN) - 6 States
Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) - 4 States
Senator Raul Labrador (R-ID) - 5 States

[Maxwell]

POLITICO's Democratic Vice Presidential Picks

Virginia Senator Tim Kaine
Pros - At this point, considered a bipartisan statesmen and a loyal partisan. Contrasts Graham's lack of experience. Doesn't alienate liberals, but holds on to moderates with his caucus center voting record. Also, from a swing state.
Cons - Uncharismatic, rather uninspiring actual electoral record, and a not very good debater. Kaine would not be a strong future Presidential candidate.

Minnesota Senator Al Franken
Pros - Rallies the base, is a fairly strong debater, and has earned the reputation as an elder statesmen, contrasting Graham's youthful inexperience.
Cons - A weaker than expected fundraiser, clearly wouldn't be able to follow Graham. Also, Republicans could use some of things he said on the campaign trail against him.

California Senator Eric Garcetti
Pros - Unites two powerhouses in the Democratic Party. Gets the pro-business wing behind Graham, something she's had some trouble with since she began her campaign. Lastly, Garcetti would be a prime contender for the Presidency after a term or two of her Presidency.
Cons - All of the negative things he said about her could be used against the ticket, there's a reason why Graham beat him, and Garcetti would do some to outshine the candidate in question.

Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper
Pros - Swing State Governor, gives a middle path on economic policy, and gives contrast on the gun issue (Graham has a relatively pro-gun record, denouncing the assault weapon ban as "not serious"). The only one to actively campaign for the role.
Cons - Got replaced by a Republican in one of the best Democratic years in recent history. Seems waffely to most voters, and at 68, would probably not be able to follow-up Graham in the future.

New York Senator Kristen Gillibrand
Pros - Strong on policy, bipartisan, a rising star in the Democratic Party, and is able to make liberal policy appealing to conservative voters.
Cons - America may not be ready for two women on a ticket. Could outshine Graham.

[Maxwell]

In the Heat of the Moment - Before the Conventions



50% Graham - 45% Cotton

Prior to the conventions, Gwen Graham made some notable foreign policy fumbles. In her trip to Israel, photos leaked of her looking with disdain at Israeli President Benjamin Natenyahu. She was also criticized when one of her main foreign policy advisors was caught plagiarizing, and was forced to be removed from her campaign after nearly a week of bad press. Meanwhile, Tom Cotton trailed through remarkably un-Republican territory - campaigning in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon and Washington, touting his support for a minimum wage hike and challenging Graham as "unready for the foreign stage". By late July, Cotton pulled a lead for the first time in months.

But then on August 3rd, 2020, Senator Graham had a press conference. Many reporters surrounding her, wondering what it was about. The location? Ground Zero. There, she made an emotional plea - that, no matter the mistakes she has made in the past, she will make the right decisions for the American people. She made sure not to mention Cotton by name, only denouncing "foreign action for the sake of foreign action" and "international demolition". Her speech received wide reviewing, and before you know it, her early foreign policy goofs were forgotten, and her poll numbers started to go back up again.

President Romney finally made an appointment for VP on July 23rd, announcing he would appoint his 3 year chief of staff Mike Leavitt. Leavitt was considered the least controversial choice he could make, though Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen called the pick "a prime example of buddy buddy politics". Nevertheless, Leavitt passed the Senate chambers, 62-35, with Graham, Cotton, and Chuck Grassley missing the vote.

RCP Averages for Selected Senate Races
CO - 46.7% Gardner, 44.5% Salazar
DE - 48.1% Biden, 43.3% Harycki
IA - 46.3% Peterson, 45.5% Ernst
KS - 44.6% Huelskamp, 42.2% Orman
MN - 43.8% Paulsen, 41.2% Marty, 6.5% Penny
MT - 46.5% Daines, 44.5% Bullock
NC - 45.0% Tillis, 45.0% McFarLane

While this year has a lot of ripe oppurtunities for Democrats, one ripe oppurtunity for Republicans opened up in an unusual state. The retiring Al Franken seat in Minnesota had an all out war for the Democratic Party, and the Democrats ended up with State Senator John Marty. Marty, running as a strong left-winger, left the primary with little to no cash and a damaged reputation from the negative primary, and is trailing the Republican nominee, Congressman Erik Paulsen, in current polling. Paulsen, by comparison, cleared the field for the GOP. The wild card is the Independence candidate, Former Congressman Tim Penny, who was a conservative Democrat in congress, and has focused his campaign on being a bipartisan concensus builder. His past as a Democrat certainly drains Marty though.

In a surprising twist, Montana Senator Steve Daines has proven to be vulnerable. With his votes for NSA spying and against farm subsidies have made him very unpopular, and Governor Steve Bullock is seizing the opportunity to run against him. Bullock has done everything right so far - compelling ads, great ground game, and strong fundraising. Daines, not to be out done, has done some good fundraising as well, but his numbers continue to drop due to less effective ads. This campaign is one that could go into overtime.

[Maxwell]

August 11th, 2020 - It's Gwen Graham/Tim Kaine!

After much speculation, Gwen Graham has decided on a VP, and that pick is Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Kaine, a fairly moderate Democrat within the Senate Democrat spectrum, is a noted Democratic partisan and an active fundraiser, and his pick did some to secure the monied interests and more left-leaning elements of Wall Street to stick around for Graham. A good deal of left-wing disappointment settles in, but not enough to abandon the ticket, as Kaine agrees to amp up anti-war rhetoric against the Romney administration and to be a solid attack dog for Graham. He also does a good deal to shore up the state of Virginia, a state that Graham holds a not exciting lead in currently (48-45, which only improves with the Kaine nomination). Both Eric Garcetti and John Hickenlooper were considered as the list seemed to decline, but neither of the western state politicians seemed to show as much interest as Kaine.

Democratic National Convention in Atlanta, Georgia



Night One: Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen, North Carolina Senate Candidate Nancy McFarLane, Minnesota Senator Al Franken, Stephen Hurm (Primetime)

Night Two: Texas Senator Julian Castro, Massachussets Senator Elizabeth Warren, California Senator Eric Garcetti (Primetime), Former President Barack Obama (Primetime)

Night Three: Speaker of the House Xavier Beccera, Screenwriter Aaron Sorkin, Former President Bill Clinton (Primetime), Virginia Senator Tim Kaine (Primetime)

Night Four:Georgia Senate Candidate Valarie Wilson, California Governor Kamala Harris, Massachusetts Senate Candidate Seth Moulton,  Florida Senator Gwen Graham (Primetime)

The first two nights of the Democratic convention were somewhat expected and somehow uneventful. Despite an empowering speech from the Former President, Warren, Castro, Garcetti, and Franken didn't wow the crowds like people expected them to. Nancy McFarLane, expected to be sort of background, moved to the front due to their underperformances.

The third night, however, is when sparks started to fly, both in good ways and bad ways. Bill Clinton gave a rousing, 25 minute speech chastising the economic situation under President Romney and doing it well. Screenwriter Aaron Sorkin's speech, however, didn't pan out as well, as he inadvertently made a lot of very misogynistic assumptions and comments. His speech was universally panned and criticized. All of these moments outshined Vice Presidential candidate Tim Kaine, who seemed to get lost in all the commotion.

By Night four, however things started popping again. Kamala Harris and Seth Moulton hit their speeches out of the park, praising Graham as a progressive, pragmatic leader for the future. Graham herself was on fire, giving the best speech of all. All in All, the Democratic Convention gave a decent if underwhelming boost to the Democratic ticket.

53% Graham - 43% Cotton