The Future is Here!

[Maxwell]

August 23rd - Pence is the Republican VP Nominee

After speculation rose that Massachussets Governor Charlie Baker or Iowa Senator Joni Ernst would be picks that could shake things up for Cotton, the campaign ultimately decided not to take a risk. Instead of hunting after wandering Independents and Democrats, Cotton consolidated his party by picking his main contender for the nomination - Indiana Governor Mike Pence. Pence, considered a darling by fiscal conservatives and social conservatives, gave a rousing speech at the announcement, chastising Graham for her foreign policy inexperience and her populist stands on fiscal policy. Pence, like Cotton, doesn't hail from a swing state, but Pence has some sway in the Midwest, being able to speak to those values.

Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin



Night One: Idaho Senator Raul Labrador, Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse, Tennessee Senate Candidate Mark Green, Cotton's Wife Anna Peckham (Primetime)

Night Two: New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte, Nevada Senator Mark Hutchison, Colorado Senator Cory Gardner (Primetime), Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (Primetime)

Night Three: Chairman of the Heritage Foundation Ted Cruz, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Iowa Senator Joni Ernst (Primetime), Indiana Governor Mike Pence (Primetime)

Night Four: Montana Senator Steve Daines, Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton (Primetime)

The Republican convention, more or less, went off without a hitch. Republicans were slamming the Democratic ticket left and right, and kept the agenda focused on a brighter future. The shining moment was Cory Gardner's speech, a 15 minute showcase that outshined everyone else that night, almost sounding like his own Presidential acceptance speech. Gardner received a major bump in his race against the aging Former Interior Secretary and Senator Ken Salazar, and is considered future Presidential material. Also shining stars were Joni Ernst, whose clever jabs made voters laugh, and Tom Cotton himself, who, in the opposite of Mitt Romney, gave a thorough foreign policy vision, one unpopular with the doves of his party, but made sense to the viewers that watched it. For the first time in a long time, neoconservatives had someone who could competently explain their policies.

That's not to say there weren't a fair share of duds. Lenny Curry was supremely underwhelmed in his surprisingly high spot in the convention airing, Steve Daines was not a very inspiring speaker, and Ted Cruz, in his supreme arrogance, gave a rambling speech about the evils of liberalism. Cruz, oft considered the reason for Julian Castro's rise, received outright boos during some of his speech, leading him to fall into the oblivion of irrelevance.

Still, the GOP convention was considered superior to the Democratic Convention, and Cotton got a massive bump, going from trailing by 10 to tying (technically leading by 1). Cotton's got a ways to go - he trails Graham heavily on a lot policy questions, and he has a lot of votes he can get hammered on.

48% Cotton - 47% Graham

[badgate]

Cruz will indeed give rise to a Castro, though I hope it's Joaquin.

[Maxwell]

Cruz will indeed give rise to a Castro, though I hope it's Joaquin.

Julian won Cruz's Senate seat in 2018.

[badgate]

Cruz will indeed give rise to a Castro, though I hope it's Joaquin.

Julian won Cruz's Senate seat in 2018.

Yes, I know. I just mean in reality I hope it's Joaquin.

[Maxwell]

Cruz will indeed give rise to a Castro, though I hope it's Joaquin.

Julian won Cruz's Senate seat in 2018.

Yes, I know. I just mean in reality I hope it's Joaquin.

Ah okay. I've never delved into the differences between the two.

[Enderman]

Cruz will indeed give rise to a Castro, though I hope it's Joaquin.

Julian won Cruz's Senate seat in 2018.

Yes, I know. I just mean in reality I hope it's Joaquin.

Ah okay. I've never delved into the differences between the two.

Its pretty simple, actually, Joaquin is the Congressman, Julian is the Secretary/Mayor.

[Maxwell]

Cruz will indeed give rise to a Castro, though I hope it's Joaquin.

Julian won Cruz's Senate seat in 2018.

Yes, I know. I just mean in reality I hope it's Joaquin.

Ah okay. I've never delved into the differences between the two.

Its pretty simple, actually, Joaquin is the Congressman, Julian is the Secretary/Mayor.

That's obvious. I meant in terms of policy or appeal.

[Enderman]

Cruz will indeed give rise to a Castro, though I hope it's Joaquin.

Julian won Cruz's Senate seat in 2018.

Yes, I know. I just mean in reality I hope it's Joaquin.

Ah okay. I've never delved into the differences between the two.

Its pretty simple, actually, Joaquin is the Congressman, Julian is the Secretary/Mayor.

That's obvious. I meant in terms of policy or appeal.

Oh... Yeah that's pretty true. I've differenced them on appeal rather than policy. Julian being the greater IMO, while Joaquin having quite a lot of experience  Jack and Bobby type of stuff if ya ask me.

Though I'd doubt this theory to be true.

[Maxwell]

First Debate and VP Debate: Graham delivers a knock-out + A narrow Kaine win



Who won (1st Presidential)?
66% Graham
28% Cotton

During the GOP debates, Cotton had established himself as a solid debater, while Garcetti generally beat Graham in most of the Democratic debates. However, in a night of reversal, Gwen Graham dominated Tom Cotton on issue after issue. His wavering and inconsistent support of the minimum wage got torn apart, his votes against the farm bill and for extremely conservative budgets made known, and finally his stance on the Romney tax cuts was the centerpiece of it all, tying him to the unpopular President.

Worse yet, Cotton's ability to defense himself was weak. Cotton clarified his position on the minimum wage... by making it murkier. He tried to dodge most of the other issues - steering the conversation to his record of service and his plan to grow the economy, which was panned by economists as "beating a dead horse that bleeds conservative cliches". Cotton couldn't effectively attack Graham's policies either, with Graham's rebukes being considered strong.

The debate was praised for its level of detail, and was moderated by Martha Raddatz.

Who won (Vice Presidential)?
49% Kaine
42% Pence

This was one of the least exciting Vice Presidential debates in history. Mike Pence exceeded low expectations by performing solidly, and so did Tim Kaine, but neither landed a strong blow on one another's ticket, instead going back and forth with talking points. The most notable moment was when Mike Pence called the Democratic Ticket "a textbook example of tax and spend liberals", which received many laughs from the Democratic Party and bloggers for the datedness of the expression, and a meme formed of pictures of Mike Pence saying things out of historical context.

The debate was moderated by Luke Russert, who was criticized for asking too many questions that could be easily answered with talking points and not enough on substantive policy issues.

50% Graham - 47% Cotton

[Maxwell]

2020 - Not a Good Year for Senate Republicans

Arkansas - Though Lieutenant Governor Tim Griffin still holds the lead, Former Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter has been chipping away at that lead, with Griffin's connection to Governor Hutchinson being noticeably toxic. Halter has a certain charm that endears him to the Democratic base, while at the same time attracting populist voters that have since swayed to the Republicans. Rate this one as Lean R.

Colorado - The opposite is the case in Colorado. Former Senator Ken Salazar, originally considered a strong candidate, has run a sluggish campaign against Current Senator Cory Gardner. Gardner, meanwhile, has run ad after ad listing his accomplishments in the Senate and attracting not only Independents, but moderate Democrats to his ticket. Polls show Gardner with a respectable showing among hispanics, but also a severely decreased gender gap. Move this one from Toss-up to Lean R.

Delaware - Governor Beau Biden has started to break away with a significant lead against Swift Capital CEO Ed Harycki. Harycki, originally running a strong campaign, has proven to be a weaker public speaker than many expected, and has refused questioning form some sources. Harycki will be running significantly behind Gubernatorial candidate Ken Simpler, and the question is can Simpler carry Harycki to victory, and close polling in the Govenors race makes it seem unlikely. Move this back to Likely D.

Georgia - Things keep getting worse for America's Most Obnoxious Senator according to Time Magazine. Senator David Perdue has been making gaffe after gaffe on the campaign trail, leaving many to wonder if polls are actually right and Former School Board Chair Valarie Wilson can actually win this race. She's been running an incredibly strong campaign, but what is especially surprising in such a publicized race is that she holds a narrow lead over the incumbent AND she's black. Republicans are calling it the Bradley effect, but there is no question this race is on the table. Move this to Toss-Up.

Iowa - Iowa continues to be a dogfight between State Senator Janet Peterson and Incumbent Senator Joni Ernst. Ernst, considered to be a radical in a moderate state, has made up for it with her brand of retail politics, and that's probably the reason why this race is as close as it's been. Peterson is no Braley, she's run a solid campaign that has gone after Ernst on all of her votes and her 100% rating with the Club for Growth all six years of her Senate career. But there's been something... stiff about Peterson, and Ernst has stood to benefit. Early polls showed Ernst down as much as 15, but she has recovered the gap, and we rate this race a Toss-up.

Kansas - Congressman Greg Orman, previously an unlikely Senate candidate after his 21-point loss to Jerry Moran, has since pulled a 7 point lead of Tim Huelskamp. Huelskamp, much to the fury of national GOP, has since been sent GOP heavy hitters like Rand Paul, Ben Sasse, and John Cornyn. Nevertheless, Huelskamp has been notably weak in this situation, and Orman has since knocked out of the park most of his debate responses to being a Democratic follower - "I've voted against Pelosi, voted against Beccera, voted against the wrong policies, while Huelskamp has served his ideology and voted against farmers, and that's just no right." It looks like we have to move this race to Lean D Pick Up.

Minnesota - Things continue to be tight in Minnesota. Incumbent Senator Al Franken has been campaigning vigorously for the Democratic nominee, State Senator John Marty, but Marty has still not gained traction with Minnesota voters. But Congressman Erik Paulsen, whose leads are all within margin of error, has not broken out as a candidate neither, since he's been perceived as a touch too conservative for Minnesota voters. Once again, the main result most will be looking out for his how much Former Congressman Tim Penny takes, and if Tim Penny takes a lot of votes, look out for Senator Paulsen. Otherwise, perhaps Senator Marty. Either way, this race is a Toss-up.

Maine - Finally, Susan Collins has retired, and Republicans just can't gain any traction here. Maybe it was the candidate - State Senator Rick Bennett is a notable partisan, and is basically the figurehead of the GOP in the state, and is perceived as way too conservative. Compare that to Congresswoman Chellie Pingree, whose liberalism seems to fit a state that is moderate but leans liberal. Pingree has held nothing less than a five point lead over Bennett, and it looks like her leads are growing in size rather than shrinking. Consider this seat Likely D Pick Up.

Montana - Senator Steve Daines has run an abysmal campaign, failing to connect with Montana Republicans and alienating independents and moderates, he is currently in the doghouse with most GOPers. Governor Steve Bullock, on the otherhand, has canvassed around the state, not taking the states demographics for granted, and has since pulled ahead with a lead. With a strong lead with Independents and taking more Republicans than Daines is taking Democrats, Bullock has made this a race to watch. We're now moving this to Lean D Pick-Up.

North Carolina - The most targeted Republican early on was Senator Thom Tillis. However, Thom Tillis managed to raise a warchest, enough to scare away some prominent Democrats, including the Governor Roy Cooper. One Democrat did not shy away, Raleigh Mayor Nancy McFarLane, and McFarLane has waged a strong campaign against Tillis. Tillis, however, has barraged his opponents with negative ads, and both candidates are unpopular with voters. However, in a year that is not 2014, a 38% Approval rating from Tillis is downright toxic, and even though polls are neck and neck, McFarLane looks like she's doing slightly better. Still, the rating for this race is Toss-Up.

Virginia - In what was originally a competitive race has turned into a rout. Senator Mark Warner, learning from mistakes of the past, has amped up his base in Northern Virginia, barraging Lieutenant Governor Pete Snyder with negative ad after negative ad. Snyder, in response, has attempted to break ground in areas Republicans don't typically do well in Virginia, but that effort has been weak. While polls were neck and neck in the beginning, Warner has pulled into a double digit lead as of late, and there doesn't really seem to be a way for Snyder to turn this around. We're moving this to Likely D.

[badgate]

'Sup in Texas?

[Maxwell]

'Sup in Texas?

After much recruiting, it turns out Cornyn won't have a serious challenge - his warchest proved to be too intimitating to many Democrats. David Alameel is running a much stronger campaign than he did in 2014, but he's barely a blimp on Cornyn's radar. Polls have Cornyn up in the teens.

Cornyn did have to beat back a primary challenge from Former Congressman Louie Gohmert, but he did so very decisively, beating him back by 52-29, with some perennial challengers hogging up the rest.

Abbott's approvals are alright (mid-to-high 50s), and, surprisingly, so are Sen. Castros. (low-to-mid 50s). Cornyn is the least popular, but at 45% approval, he's not at all vulnerable.

[JerryArkansas]

How bout those house races in Arkansas.  Also Max, if need be, I could give you some useful info on the third district in Arkansas.  It may prove useful in the senate race.

[Maxwell]

How bout those house races in Arkansas.  Also Max, if need be, I could give you some useful info on the third district in Arkansas.  It may prove useful in the senate race.

Sure -

District 1 - Congressman Rick Crawford is completely safe. Jonesboro Aldermann Ann Williams tried to wage a decent campaign, but proved futile.

Most Reliable Poll - 55% Crawford, 31% Williams

District 2 - Democrat Congressman David Johnson is at risk, and he faces State Rep. Rick Beck. Beck defeated a Democratic incumbent in 2014, but is considered a relatively weak Republican nominee. Democratic internals show Johnson with the lead, but Republican internals show Beck with the lead, meaning this race is generally tied.

Most Reliable Poll - 46% Johnson, 43% Beck

District 3 - Congressman Steve Womack is completely safe, as no Democrat ran.

District 4 - Congressman Bruce Westerman, after a tough race against Jamie Lee Witt in 2018, is safe this election. State Senator Bruce Maloch is not a bad recruit, but Westerman has held large leads, even in Democratic internals.

Most Reliable Poll - 52% Westermann, 38% Maloch

[GLPman]

Great update

[JerryArkansas]

Here's the useful info on the 3rd.  It is becoming very socially moderate, it has over the past few election cycles, and with presidential turnout, it can really hurt the republican.  Look to the D.C. Suburbs crca. 2005

[Enderman]

How's Florida's districts doing? (Specifically 2, 6, 7, 14, 26, and 27)

[Maxwell]

How's Florida's districts doing? (Specifically 2, 6, 7, 14, 26, and 27)

District 2 - Congressman Quintin Kendall (R), who won in 2016 after Graham won the Presidency, was a Former Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce member. He won by a narrow margin in the wave year of 2018, but this year he's pretty safe. State Representative Alan Williams has run strongly on his base, but has failed considerably to appeal outside of said base. Likely R.

District 6 - Congressman Ron DeSantis continues to hold this district with an iron grip. Safe R.

District 7 - Former Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer won the congress seat in 2018, and has since been a strong favorite to hold on the district. Son of a Former Orlando Mayor Ellis Hood is the Republican candidate, who has not run a very good campaign at all. Most polls have Dyer up double digits. Likely D.

District 14 - Congresswoman Jessica Ehrlich and State Senator Kathleen Peters are locked in a neck and neck race for this district. Ehrlich beat Jolly by a large margin in 2018, and Jolly ran again this cycle, but was beaten by Peters who ran almost entirely on Jolly's loss. Peters, a strong conservative, attacked Ehrlich's voting record, which was more liberal than many expected. Ehrlich, meanwhile, made it clear that Peters' lack of support for a minimum wage hike of any kind was unacceptable in this day. Internals on neither side show anything but a lead for either candidate in the single digits. Toss-Up.

District 26 - Congressman Carlos Curbelo survived a narrow challenge in 2018, and is considered safe in 2020 against a perennial businessman, and he is considered a potential candidate for future office in the state. Safe R.

District 27 - This district is a mixed situation - it goes nuts if Ilena-Ros Lehtitenen retires, but it's safely in her hands. Lehtitenen had a very tough race in 2018, but survived by a couple hundred votes. Former State Senator Jose Rodriguez is running again, but he polls far worse this year, possibly due to a more neutral enviorment. Likely R.

[Türkisblau]

Who are New Mexico's representatives? Did NM-2 flip in 2018?

[Maxwell]

Who are New Mexico's representatives? Did NM-2 flip in 2018?

The same. Steve Pearce won by a 53-47 margin in 2018, and is now considered likely to win re-election in 2020, though he doesn't carry a giant lead over Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima (with some Democratic pollster showing a 2 point lead for Pearce).

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

Damn, I wanted Franken to win. =( We could have had another former B list celebrity as president, only with opposite political views.

[Türkisblau]

Who are New Mexico's representatives? Did NM-2 flip in 2018?

The same. Steve Pearce won by a 53-47 margin in 2018, and is now considered likely to win re-election in 2020, though he doesn't carry a giant lead over Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima (with some Democratic pollster showing a 2 point lead for Pearce).

Thanks! One more question (sorry), you said that Rigell was elected AG, who succeeded him and what's the race for VA-2 looking like?

[jojoju1998]

Question. What's up with Tom Mcclintock from California ? 4th congressinol district.

[Maxwell]

Who are New Mexico's representatives? Did NM-2 flip in 2018?

The same. Steve Pearce won by a 53-47 margin in 2018, and is now considered likely to win re-election in 2020, though he doesn't carry a giant lead over Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima (with some Democratic pollster showing a 2 point lead for Pearce).

Thanks! One more question (sorry), you said that Rigell was elected AG, who succeeded him and what's the race for VA-2 looking like?

Former Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam easily defeated the Republican placeholder who won the special election in 2018. This year the race is closer than that was (Northam won by 61-35 that year), but Northam still looks pretty good - Former State Senator Jeff McWaters originally looked pretty good, but has proven to be a shaky candidate in a general election.

[Maxwell]

Question. What's up with Tom Mcclintock from California ? 4th congressinol district.

McClintock continues to hold on, though I assume he will eventually retire.