Most surprising non-competitive governor's races
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  Most surprising non-competitive governor's races
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Author Topic: Most surprising non-competitive governor's races  (Read 791 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: November 15, 2014, 07:39:16 PM »

What were the most surprising races of the non-competitive governor's races (in terms of margins, candidates, etc)?

Ohio: I knew Kasich would win big, but seriously didn't expect him to actually win by 30+ points, enough to win Cuyahoga and Lucas counties.
Tennessee: A 47 point margin, enough said.
Oklahoma: Damn Mary Fallin really sucks, can't even win >60% in Oklahoma
Wyoming: I expected Mead to do much better, there was a lot of third party vote here, he unpopular?
Rhode Island: I knew the margin between the D and R would be close, but I didn't expect the 'Moderate' candidate to get 2%, nonetheless >20%.
Vermont: Wow, Shumlin knows he screwed up when he can't even get >50% of the vote, luckily he has the legislature to save him.
New York: Cuomo is so weak, only winning by 13. He did surprisingly well in Long Island and Staten Island though, upstate is where he got his margin reduced big time.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2014, 07:46:32 PM »
« Edited: November 15, 2014, 07:48:15 PM by realisticidealist »

Rhode Island: I knew the margin between the D and R would be close, but I didn't expect the 'Moderate' candidate to get 2%, nonetheless >20%.

Robert Healey's third party runs are something of a fixture in Rhode Island politics. See the Cool Moose Party and these races:

1986 Governor (1.85%)
1994 Governor (9.08%)
1998 Governor (6.28%)
2002 Lt. Governor (18.79%)
2006 Lt. Governor (13.41%)
2010 Lt. Governor (39.15%)
2014 Governor (21.38%)
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2014, 07:49:03 PM »

NY. Where did all that red go upstate!? And Cuomo losing Monroe County was pretty pathetic.

Daugaard getting >70% was mildly surprising, IMO; I thought his ceiling was lower than that.
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KCDem
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« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2014, 07:54:51 PM »

Gary King getting a higher percentage of the vote (42.71%) than Fred DuVal (41.61%). LOL
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Ebowed
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« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2014, 07:56:18 PM »

The legislature always picks the popular vote winner in Vermont, see 2010, 2002.

Cuyahoga going for Kasich was a definite surprise.

Ige under 50% statewide in Hawaii, ever so barely, came as a shock to me.  Also surprised at Kitzhaber under 50% in Oregon (although, in retrospect, I shouldn't have been).

As for Mead, he won Teton county, with just over 50%, too.  It looks like Albany was the Democratic holdout in Wyoming this year.  Democrats' margins in similar counties like Blaine ID, San Miguel CO, Pitkin CO, etc look pretty safe.  This is how the Utah counties voted in their congressional races.

Summit, UT-01
McAleer (D) - 55% 5,186
Bishop (R) - 40% 4,188

Otherwise county sweep for Bishop, the incumbent.

Grand, UT-03
Chaffetz (R) - 47% 1,615
Wonnacott (D) - 43% 1,460

Chaffetz took every county.  Perhaps moreso than Teton, WY, Grand is the most-Republican leaning of the resort counties.
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RedSLC
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« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2014, 08:12:02 PM »


Summit, UT-01
McAleer (D) - 55% 5,186
Bishop (R) - 40% 4,188

Otherwise county sweep for Bishop, the incumbent.

Grand, UT-03
Chaffetz (R) - 47% 1,615
Wonnacott (D) - 43% 1,460

Chaffetz took every county.  Perhaps moreso than Teton, WY, Grand is the most-Republican leaning of the resort counties.

Also, like in 2012, the majority of voters in Salt Lake County voted for democratic house candidates (though only because a blue dog was running in one of the districts, obviously).

UT-02's portion of the county (Most of SLC, the west half of WVC, and Magna) going 62-33 for Luz Robles (despite the fact that the margin was pretty much flipped for Stewart district-wide), and UT-04's share of the county (Several inner-ring and all of the SW suburbs of SLC, which makes up 85 percent of the district's population) going 51-46 for Doug Owens (explaining why the race was so close). UT-03's share of the county (SLC's SE suburbs) went 58-37 for Jason Chaffetz, which isn't really surprising, considering he's a popular incumbent without a strong challenger.

The overall vote in house races for the county is:
50.03% Democratic candidates
45.97% Republican candidates
4.00% Other candidates.

So at the house level, Salt Lake and Summit Counties were the only counties in the state to not vote republican, in a sense.
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NerdyBohemian
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2014, 02:05:17 PM »


Rhode Island: I knew the margin between the D and R would be close, but I didn't expect the 'Moderate' candidate to get 2%, nonetheless >20%.

That was due to special circumstances. The public union and progressive Democrat vote in Rhode Island refused to give Raimondo their support so they turned to Healey.
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