RCP: GOP groups abandoning Sen. Kirk

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Even if this holds true, I'm still holding out hope that the Human Richts Campaign will endorse Duckworth. A gay rights organization endorsing even the most liberal Republican is like Bugs Bunny voting for Elmer Fudd.

HRC endorsed Kirk.  Came at the expense of much of their street cred.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

IceSpear, I think that margin is about right if Ballard runs, but I agree it would be closer against anyone else. Montana has a weak Republican bench, but even in a neutral year I think Tester falls. And while he's in trouble, doesn't Manchin at least have enough crossover appeal t keep him in the single digits (if he runs again)? Also, on the Vermont and Maryland Senator comparison: Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) voted against the Iran Deal, IIRC. And l, while not a Senator, Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) has an A rating from the NRA. So those comparisons ARE valid after all.

Cardin voted against the deal because he's an Israel whore.  Where did you get Peter Welch having an A rating from the NRA?

[Heisenberg]

IceSpear, I think that margin is about right if Ballard runs, but I agree it would be closer against anyone else. Montana has a weak Republican bench, but even in a neutral year I think Tester falls. And while he's in trouble, doesn't Manchin at least have enough crossover appeal t keep him in the single digits (if he runs again)? Also, on the Vermont and Maryland Senator comparison: Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) voted against the Iran Deal, IIRC. And l, while not a Senator, Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) has an A rating from the NRA. So those comparisons ARE valid after all.

Cardin voted against the deal because he's an Israel whore.  Where did you get Peter Welch having an A rating from the NRA?

Not quite sure how I stumbled upon this, but look here for more about Welch on gun rights.
http://www.ontheissues.org/House/Peter_Welch_Gun_Control.htm

[publicunofficial]

Even if this holds true, I'm still holding out hope that the Human Richts Campaign will endorse Duckworth. A gay rights organization endorsing even the most liberal Republican is like Bugs Bunny voting for Elmer Fudd.

HRC endorsed Kirk.  Came at the expense of much of their street cred.

I thought HRC stood for Hillary Rodham Clinton and got very confused.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If we lose one seat, this would be the one I would want to lose, since he's not a conservative anyway.

[Mr. Illini]

What once looked like it was going to be an intense, ugly race, is likely going to be a boring tread toward November. The candidates will throw some barbs, but this race is going to be assumed to be D, as we are already seeing. It's not going to be the dogfight that was expected.

Growing up in IL-10, Kirk was my congressional representative. I have to say that I do have respect for him. He oftentimes put national politics aside in the interests of his constituents - necessary for him to win, but courageous on the more controversial issues. I will not be voting for him as the Senate majority is important and for it to happen, a state like Illinois needs two Dems. I have also met Duckworth and found her to be very genuine.

However, were Kirk to lose in November, I do thank him for his service. While I don't agree with him on everything, he's better than most Republican senators.

[Kingpoleon]

Yeah, Blanchings are fun, but is there even a single Senator left who is likely to get Blanched (lose by >15 points)? Maybe Joe Manchin and Claire McCaskill, but that's about it?  

So how do they want to hold on to their Senate majority again?

Lose IL, WI, NH, Pick up NV. 52-48 R Majority.

I agree with this, even though they will lose FL unless Rubio decides to run again. It looks like control of the Senate might really depend on who wins NV. Joe Heck will have a very hard time winning that race, considering that Heller barely beat a trash tier opponent in 2012.

I doubt Manchin or McCaskill will get blanched. Manchin is popular enough to keep it close, and MO just isn't Republican enough for that wide of a margin (then again neither was AR based on what people knew at this point in 2008).

Maybe Heitkamp, but I doubt it.

Arkansas turning dark red is less a belated case of Southern Realignment and more the fact that all of the population growth the state is having is in the far northwest corner in Bentonville, which has always been the most Republican part of the state. A lot of the population growth is transplants from Missouri, Oklahoma and the Plains states rather than from other Southern states.

Basically, Arkansas is becoming more Republican as it becomes less Southern and more like Kansas and Missouri.

Our most Republican county is Crawford. The biggest city there is Van Buren, which is growing moderately well, although it is essentially a suburb of Fort Smith. Sebastian County's growth will be the most essential to Republican goals in the long term. Fort Smith is currently the second largest city in Arkansas, and it has about 3% of the vote of the state there.

Bentonville is the tenth largest city with about 40,000 people as of 2010.

[nclib]

There are seriously multiple people who don't know who Blanche Lincoln is? I'm getting old.

I know who she is; I just didn't recognize her picture.

[ElectionsGuy]

@IndyTX, @Kingpoleon: Look at the areas of the state that have trended Republican, those would be the white southern and northeastern rural parts of the state. The northwest has always been Republican, its pretty much been the reason Republicans had any chance in the past. Unless its some bad form of satire, I'm not understanding why population growth would have any significant effect.

[RINO Tom]

TN Vol, don't you think you look like kind of an idiot calling actual Republicans "Republicans" when you yourself are not a Republican?  You're either a Republican hack who's too cowardly to just claim it (if this is the case, get it over with, dude) or an actual independent who has no business telling an actual Republican what he should believe in order to be a "real" Republican.  I highly suspect the latter, considering you've shown no consistent political ideology to speak of over the years and you seem to hate more Republicans than you admire, so again, you putting "Republican" in quotes when referring to Senator Kirk is retarded.

The world doesn't revolve around abortion, and being conservative has nothing to do with being rural or folksy.  Period.

Kirk is a standard Republican who takes a socially liberal stance or two.  Is that enough for psychos like ExtremeRepublican to think he's a RINO or whatever?  Sure ... but let's be real, anyone who uses that term in a serious manner is an idiot.