NV Congressional Races 2016

[RogueBeaver]

Topping the list is of course Sandoval, who Ralston assigns a 70% chance of beating Reid and 10% chance of running. Other top names include Heck, Amodei, Krolicki, Robertson in that order. Krolicki seems the likeliest non-Sandoval candidate.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

[KCDem]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

[Senator Cris]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

Why this comment? He is one of the best posters of this board and why he shouldn't say his opinion about the Nevada Senate race? Really, I don't understand.

[DrScholl]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

[Vosem]

I still think Heck, who I think briefly ran for the Senate in 2010, might be a more likely candidate than we think, and is merely acting like he doesn't want it as part of the NVGOP-wide (and really national GOP-wide) effort to get Sandoval to run against Reid. Krolicki has a grudge against Reid and I think his chances of running if none of the Big Three (Amodei, Heck, Sandoval) run are greater than 50%, as well. Of course, I'm not one to contradict The Ralston himself.

[RogueBeaver]

So long as there's no clown car and the surfers stay on their beach.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

[DrScholl]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

[Vosem]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

[DrScholl]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

Uh, I didn't specifically address those odds, uh, I was addressing the chances of Sandoval running, but nice try. As far as those chances go, I wouldn't write Reid off so quickly, especially under presidential turnout. Republicans hate Reid, and it's very personal, so they will try hard to beat him, but there is no guarantee that they will be successful.

[Mr.Phips]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

Uh, I didn't specifically address those odds, uh, I was addressing the chances of Sandoval running, but nice try. As far as those chances go, I wouldn't write Reid off so quickly, especially under presidential turnout. Republicans hate Reid, and it's very personal, so they will try hard to beat him, but there is no guarantee that they will be successful.

I think Republicans need Sandoval to beat Reid in a presidential year.  As seen in Kentucky, voters don't split tickets like they used to.

[DrScholl]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

Uh, I didn't specifically address those odds, uh, I was addressing the chances of Sandoval running, but nice try. As far as those chances go, I wouldn't write Reid off so quickly, especially under presidential turnout. Republicans hate Reid, and it's very personal, so they will try hard to beat him, but there is no guarantee that they will be successful.

I think Republicans need Sandoval to beat Reid in a presidential year.  As seen in Kentucky, voters don't split tickets like they used to.

Nevada is more elastic than Kentucky, so there will be more crossover voters, but Reid will still benefit from increased polarization among Democratic voters, on top of his incumbency.

[Mr.Phips]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

Uh, I didn't specifically address those odds, uh, I was addressing the chances of Sandoval running, but nice try. As far as those chances go, I wouldn't write Reid off so quickly, especially under presidential turnout. Republicans hate Reid, and it's very personal, so they will try hard to beat him, but there is no guarantee that they will be successful.

I think Republicans need Sandoval to beat Reid in a presidential year.  As seen in Kentucky, voters don't split tickets like they used to.

Nevada is more elastic than Kentucky, so there will be more crossover voters, but Reid will still benefit from increased polarization among Democratic voters, on top of his incumbency.

I think they are about the same in elasticity.  Look at how well Beshear has done in governors races. 

I still say that Reid doesn't lose in a presidential year unless Sandoval runs.  Incumbents don't lose in states their presidential nominee is carrying without a big scandal or a weird situation like Mel Carnahan's death in 2000.

[Vosem]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

Uh, I didn't specifically address those odds, uh, I was addressing the chances of Sandoval running, but nice try. As far as those chances go, I wouldn't write Reid off so quickly, especially under presidential turnout. Republicans hate Reid, and it's very personal, so they will try hard to beat him, but there is no guarantee that they will be successful.

I think Republicans need Sandoval to beat Reid in a presidential year.  As seen in Kentucky, voters don't split tickets like they used to.

Nevada is more elastic than Kentucky, so there will be more crossover voters, but Reid will still benefit from increased polarization among Democratic voters, on top of his incumbency.

I think they are about the same in elasticity.  Look at how well Beshear has done in governors races. 

I still say that Reid doesn't lose in a presidential year unless Sandoval runs.  Incumbents don't lose in states their presidential nominee is carrying without a big scandal or a weird situation like Mel Carnahan's death in 2000.

Alaska-2008 might be a good comparison. Stevens, like Reid, had been around forever and had gotten unpopular: he lost.

[Mr.Phips]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

Uh, I didn't specifically address those odds, uh, I was addressing the chances of Sandoval running, but nice try. As far as those chances go, I wouldn't write Reid off so quickly, especially under presidential turnout. Republicans hate Reid, and it's very personal, so they will try hard to beat him, but there is no guarantee that they will be successful.

I think Republicans need Sandoval to beat Reid in a presidential year.  As seen in Kentucky, voters don't split tickets like they used to.

Nevada is more elastic than Kentucky, so there will be more crossover voters, but Reid will still benefit from increased polarization among Democratic voters, on top of his incumbency.

I think they are about the same in elasticity.  Look at how well Beshear has done in governors races. 

I still say that Reid doesn't lose in a presidential year unless Sandoval runs.  Incumbents don't lose in states their presidential nominee is carrying without a big scandal or a weird situation like Mel Carnahan's death in 2000.

Alaska-2008 might be a good comparison. Stevens, like Reid, had been around forever and had gotten unpopular: he lost.

Stevens is the scandal example I was thinking of.  He was indicted and found guilty the week before the election.

[Brittain33]

Alaska-2008 might be a good comparison. Stevens, like Reid, had been around forever and had gotten unpopularindicted: he lost.

[Vosem]

Alaska-2008 might be a good comparison. Stevens, like Reid, had been around forever and had gotten unpopularindicted: he lost.

Well, Reid has been indicted by the court of public opinion.

[Mr.Phips]

Alaska-2008 might be a good comparison. Stevens, like Reid, had been around forever and had gotten unpopularindicted: he lost.

Well, Reid has been indicted by the court of public opinion.

Nice!!!!

[Person Man]

What if Reid retires?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What if Reid retires?

He won't.

[RogueBeaver]

Ralston addresses a retirement scenario. If Reid retired he would tap Masto, who deeply desires a Senate seat, as his successor. IIRC he's also said on Twitter that Masto could challenge Heller in 2018.

[Talleyrand]

Ralston addresses a retirement scenario. If Reid retired he would tap Masto, who deeply desires a Senate seat, as his successor. IIRC he's also said on Twitter that Masto could challenge Heller in 2018.

If she wants a senate seat so much, why didn't she run in 2012? Reid recruited her, and considering how close someone as flawed as Berkley came to ousting Heller, she might have won.

[IceSpear]

If Sandoval runs, Reid will lose in a landslide. If he doesn't, Reid likely narrowly survives.

[Miles]

Amodei isn't running, either.