NV Congressional Races 2016

[Maxwell]

If Sandoval does run, Reid will lose in a landslide. Most likely 60%-40%.

No. That would not be the case.

Yup. Everyone likes to assume that Sandoval would crush Reid but that's anything but the truth. Reid is ruthless and would tear Sandoval's reputation to shreds and bring down the full force of his machine, so even if Sandoval did win he'd no longer be insanely popular, and it would certainly be very close.

I say it would be like the 1988 race, where popular Governor Richard Bryan defeated incumbent Senator Chic Hecht by a mere 4 points despite Hecht being wildly unpopular.

[DrScholl]

Reid's main focus would be to drive Sandoval's favorables down early and he would have a good opportunity to do that. With Republicans in control of the Senate, that makes it a little easier for Reid to play defense and tie Sandoval to ineffective leadership.

[RogueBeaver]

Sandoval: no timetable, session most important.

[Vosem]

Reid's main focus would be to drive Sandoval's favorables down early and he would have a good opportunity to do that. With Republicans in control of the Senate, that makes it a little easier for Reid to play defense and tie Sandoval to ineffective leadership.

Wouldn't it be much easier for Sandoval to tie Reid to ineffective leadership, since Reid is, unlike Sandoval, an ineffective leader?

Sandoval, of course, has no need to dirty himself trying to get Reid's favorables down; they're already horrendous. The optics of Sandoval running a positive campaign in the face of Reid's negativity would also be fantastic for Reid, I'm sure.

[KCDem]

Reid's main focus would be to drive Sandoval's favorables down early and he would have a good opportunity to do that. With Republicans in control of the Senate, that makes it a little easier for Reid to play defense and tie Sandoval to ineffective leadership.

Wouldn't it be much easier for Sandoval to tie Reid to ineffective leadership, since Reid is, unlike Sandoval, an ineffective leader?

Sandoval, of course, has no need to dirty himself trying to get Reid's favorables down; they're already horrendous. The optics of Sandoval running a positive campaign in the face of Reid's negativity would also be fantastic for Reid, I'm sure.

In what way has Reid been ineffective. From a Democrat's perspective he's been extremely effective at trolling McConnell.

[RogueBeaver]

Ralston predicts Reid is still in and Sandoval still out. Reid scheduling fundraisers, speculation about retirement continues.

An interesting scenario is if Reid retires and Sandoval doesn't run, so Masto v. Krolicki or Roberson.

[RogueBeaver]

Krolicki said he'll consider running if Sandoval doesn't.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Let's not throw away another opportunity to defeat him on a lousy candidate like Angle.  Then again, I heard that he may retire, which changes everything.

[RogueBeaver]

Sandoval all but told Ralston yesterday he isn't running. "Do you really think, if this is my last session as governor, I would propose the things that I proposed last night, thinking I might be on a ballot?" Krolicki would still be a solid candidate though.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hutchinson and Krolicki would be great alternatives to Sandoval. The best alternative to Sandoval would be Joe Heck, but unfortunately he's said outright he isn't running.

I would really like to see Sandoval change his mind. He's the only one who would be a strong favorite against reid. The rest of the good options are only slight favorites or at just a 50-50 chance of victory.

[Maxwell]

Hutchinson has strong backing and support from state GOP, but he's not the best debater and tends to lean on the angry side. I feel like Reid would know how to push his buttons.

[Vosem]

Krolicki has a personal grudge against Reid and long-standing senatorial ambitions. If Sandoval and the House GOPers are all out, I would love to see the state GOP unite against Krolicki. Krolicki v. Reid would be a vicious, no-holds-barred race.

[Mr. Smith]

Which Reid would totally win, based on the coattails.

I'm just not seeing anyone other than Sandoval having much chance.

[Pandaguineapig]

Which Reid would totally win, based on the coattails.

I'm just not seeing anyone other than Sandoval having much chance.

I don't know why people keep insisting that Reid is a shoo-in when he only squeaked out a win against the single worst candidate republicans could have nominated. He's one of the least popular senators in the country in a pretty swingy state and he's only getting more frail and senile.

[Vosem]

Which Reid would totally win, based on the coattails.

I'm just not seeing anyone other than Sandoval having much chance.

Coattails of what? Heller won in 2012 even as Obama won up-ticket. Obama is stronger than Hillary in these western states (Colorado is most prominent, but the same effect should apply here), and Nevada voters broadly disapprove of Reid. On paper Reid should lose.

Of course Reid is very good at taking down his opponents, which is why he may still win -- in fact, he may have engineered the indictment of Krolicki back in 2010 to keep him out of the race. Reid definitely fears Krolicki.

[DrScholl]

There are very rarely variances partisan between a presidential result and a Senate result involving an incumbent. It happened in Alaska, but that involved an indictment.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Which Reid would totally win, based on the coattails.

I'm just not seeing anyone other than Sandoval having much chance.

I don't know why people keep insisting that Reid is a shoo-in when he only squeaked out a win against the single worst candidate republicans could have nominated. He's one of the least popular senators in the country in a pretty swingy state and he's only getting more frail and senile.

People think Reid has this masterful turnout machine or something that can work wonders. Well, if he has such a machine, where was it in 2012 when Shelley Berkeley lost? Where was it last year, when the republicans swept the statewide offices, won all 3 winnable U.S. House seats, and got majorities in both houses of the Nevada legislature - including picking up several seats that were never supposed to have real risk of flipping. Reid's turnout machine simply doesn't exist - he only won in 2010 because he was running against a michele-bachmann type lunatic. Reid is unpopular, ineffective in the senate, and probably easy to attack.

A Reid vs. Sandoval Race would be Likely R to start. A Reid vs. Hutchinson/Krolicki/Heck/Amodei race would be Lean R to start. Reid vs. Roberson/Brower/Beers would start at Toss-Up.

Reid would start at Lean D over one of the 'accidental constitutional officers' (Laxalt/Cegavske/Schwartz/Knecht), but even one of them could very well beat him in the right situation.

[Knives]

Which Reid would totally win, based on the coattails.

I'm just not seeing anyone other than Sandoval having much chance.

I don't know why people keep insisting that Reid is a shoo-in when he only squeaked out a win against the single worst candidate republicans could have nominated. He's one of the least popular senators in the country in a pretty swingy state and he's only getting more frail and senile.

People think Reid has this masterful turnout machine or something that can work wonders. Well, if he has such a machine, where was it in 2012 when Shelley Berkeley lost? Where was it last year, when the republicans swept the statewide offices, won all 3 winnable U.S. House seats, and got majorities in both houses of the Nevada legislature - including picking up several seats that were never supposed to have real risk of flipping. Reid's turnout machine simply doesn't exist - he only won in 2010 because he was running against a michele-bachmann type lunatic. Reid is unpopular, ineffective in the senate, and probably easy to attack.

A Reid vs. Sandoval Race would be Likely R to start. A Reid vs. Hutchinson/Krolicki/Heck/Amodei race would be Lean R to start. Reid vs. Roberson/Brower/Beers would start at Toss-Up.

Reid would start at Lean D over one of the 'accidental constitutional officers' (Laxalt/Cegavske/Schwartz/Knecht), but even one of them could very well beat him in the right situation.

Shelley Berkley is no Harry Reid and 2014 is no 2010...

[Pandaguineapig]

Which Reid would totally win, based on the coattails.

I'm just not seeing anyone other than Sandoval having much chance.

I don't know why people keep insisting that Reid is a shoo-in when he only squeaked out a win against the single worst candidate republicans could have nominated. He's one of the least popular senators in the country in a pretty swingy state and he's only getting more frail and senile.

People think Reid has this masterful turnout machine or something that can work wonders. Well, if he has such a machine, where was it in 2012 when Shelley Berkeley lost? Where was it last year, when the republicans swept the statewide offices, won all 3 winnable U.S. House seats, and got majorities in both houses of the Nevada legislature - including picking up several seats that were never supposed to have real risk of flipping. Reid's turnout machine simply doesn't exist - he only won in 2010 because he was running against a michele-bachmann type lunatic. Reid is unpopular, ineffective in the senate, and probably easy to attack.

A Reid vs. Sandoval Race would be Likely R to start. A Reid vs. Hutchinson/Krolicki/Heck/Amodei race would be Lean R to start. Reid vs. Roberson/Brower/Beers would start at Toss-Up.

Reid would start at Lean D over one of the 'accidental constitutional officers' (Laxalt/Cegavske/Schwartz/Knecht), but even one of them could very well beat him in the right situation.

Shelley Berkley is no Harry Reid and 2014 is no 2010...

You're right, Berkley was much more with it than Reid is currently. Like Wulfric said the "turnout Machine" is a myth and Reid probably isn't in the physical or mental shape to campaign as strongly as he used to.

[Miles]

Reid is "fully intending to run at this stage."

[RogueBeaver]

Reid told staff he's definitely running. Ralston thinks Roberson is Reid's likeliest opponent.

[RogueBeaver]

Ralston says Reid is probably running but for the first time he's hearing very faint doubts. Roberson will be the Pub candidate and will announce after the session finishes in June. Problems are that Roberson is little-known, has never been in a pressure cooker, could be severely damaged if Sandoval's agenda fails, and is thin-skinned. Plus Roberson will have a primary - it could be former LV councilman Beers, who's already running, or one of the row officers (only names Laxalt).

[IceSpear]

Would Reid retiring actually improve Dem odds of holding the seat? I'm leaning yes due to his awful approval ratings.

[RogueBeaver]

Reid's hated but Masto wouldn't have his skillset.

[Vosem]

What happened to Krolicki? Is he still thinking of running? Couldn't he beat Roberson in a primary?