NV Congressional Races 2016

[Nyvin]

Expect NV-3 to be changed to "Lean Dem" in the near future.

Tarkanian has serious flaws from what I'm reading.

[JMT]

Expect NV-3 to be changed to "Lean Dem" in the near future.

Tarkanian has serious flaws from what I'm reading.

Tarkanian does have serious flaws, he has run for office and lost 4 times prior to now, he's on his 5th run for office. But Rosen is also untested as a candidate (besides winning her primary overwhelmingly, I suppose, but I suspect that's more because she was Reid's handpicked candidate in a low turnout election). This race is a tossup for now, but if Rosen proves to be a good candidate, I expect the race to lean D.

In the end, I think Rosen will win because she has a weak opponent, Tump is at the top of the ticket, and it's a presidential year with higher turnout. But I wouldn't completely discount Tarkanian at this point.

If Republicans really wanted to lock up this seat, they should've nominated Michael Roberson. GOP voters voted against their most electable candidate in my opinion.

[Maxwell]

Republicans really flopped - Roberson probably would've had this seat sealed if he had won the nomination.

[Vosem]

Much as I feel sympathy for Tarkanian, who really deserved to be the Republican Senate nominee in 2010, and would probably have become a Senator had he won the primary, he was clearly weaker than Roberson in this race. Shame he won, I guess.

[publicunofficial]

Tarkanian has ethics issues AND is very conservative AND just seems to be a bad campaigner in general AND is running in a year where Trump seems like he will tank in Nevada.

Unless Rosen makes a major misstep (She is untested after all), I expect her to win in November.