NV Congressional Races 2016

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What if Reid retires?

He won't.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hutchinson and Krolicki would be great alternatives to Sandoval. The best alternative to Sandoval would be Joe Heck, but unfortunately he's said outright he isn't running.

I would really like to see Sandoval change his mind. He's the only one who would be a strong favorite against reid. The rest of the good options are only slight favorites or at just a 50-50 chance of victory.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Which Reid would totally win, based on the coattails.

I'm just not seeing anyone other than Sandoval having much chance.

I don't know why people keep insisting that Reid is a shoo-in when he only squeaked out a win against the single worst candidate republicans could have nominated. He's one of the least popular senators in the country in a pretty swingy state and he's only getting more frail and senile.

People think Reid has this masterful turnout machine or something that can work wonders. Well, if he has such a machine, where was it in 2012 when Shelley Berkeley lost? Where was it last year, when the republicans swept the statewide offices, won all 3 winnable U.S. House seats, and got majorities in both houses of the Nevada legislature - including picking up several seats that were never supposed to have real risk of flipping. Reid's turnout machine simply doesn't exist - he only won in 2010 because he was running against a michele-bachmann type lunatic. Reid is unpopular, ineffective in the senate, and probably easy to attack.

A Reid vs. Sandoval Race would be Likely R to start. A Reid vs. Hutchinson/Krolicki/Heck/Amodei race would be Lean R to start. Reid vs. Roberson/Brower/Beers would start at Toss-Up.

Reid would start at Lean D over one of the 'accidental constitutional officers' (Laxalt/Cegavske/Schwartz/Knecht), but even one of them could very well beat him in the right situation.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Even with his "Why would I propose these things?" comment, I'm still giving Sandoval a 20% chance of running. First, I'm not stupid enough to believe that he likes Reid or is scared of his imaginary turnout machine, or anything silly and dumb like that. Second, McConnell and co. will be SCREAMING at Sandoval to run from now until the filing deadline, especially because with Sandoval, the race would be Likely R.

I would count Hutchinson almost completely out. The idea with him running for Lt. Gov. was that there would be no risk of a democrat winning the seat (as opposed to Lowden, who would have pulled out a narrow win at best), freeing up Sandoval to run for Senate without giving the governorship to a democrat. The idea wasn't for Hutchinson to use it as a leaping post for a 2016 federal office campaign. Furthermore, he would have spent less than a year as Lt. Gov. upon beginning his campaign, which just sounds like too soon to run for another office. Besides, he's only 51, so he has plenty of time to enjoy being Lt. Gov. and perhaps run for Governor in 2018 (when Sandoval is term-limited) and/or for Heller's Senate seat once Heller retires (or in 2022 if Reid wins reelection.) . I'll give Hutchinson a 5% chance of running at this point - I don't think the party will pursue him seriously unless Sandoval, Krolicki, and Roberson all refuse to run, which I doubt will happen.

I see Krolicki as a lot likelier to run. He has a grudge against Reid over that indictment, and those things are hard to let go. Furthermore, if Roberson bows out or looks weak well before the filing deadline, the pressure on Krolicki (barring Sandoval entering) to run will be intense. That being said, he's only slightly better than Roberson at face value. I'll put the odds of Krolicki running at 45%.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hutchison is out, Krolicki isn't serious, Roberson would drop down to CD3 if Heck ran.

Sounds like Roberson is the GOP's man. Certainly not their Plan A, probably Plan D or E at this point.

It's pretty much this:

Plan A: Sandoval
Plan B: Heck
Plan C: Krolicki
Plan D: Roberson
Plan E: Beers

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Go Heck Go!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Titus out.

Good. Even Masto would be better than that Lady.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sandoval's tax package cleared the Assembly tonight, Ralston says Senate will be a breeze. So session finishes on schedule, presumably Heck will get in soon.

Any chance Sandoval gives into pressure and runs?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So...is any Republican going to run?

Conventional Wisdom is that Roberson will run for CD3, and Heck will run for senate. Vice versa of that is also possible.

Any chance Krolicki runs for senate?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ralston seems to say Heck will announce today.

Yes!!!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

John Oceguera (Heck's opponent in 2012) just jumped into NV-4, putting him in a battle for the nomination against Lucy Flores.

and Ruben Kihuen.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tarkanian running in CD3.

He'll lose again.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is anyone even going to run for NV-3 on the democratic side?