NV Congressional Races 2016

[Pandaguineapig]

Which Reid would totally win, based on the coattails.

I'm just not seeing anyone other than Sandoval having much chance.

I don't know why people keep insisting that Reid is a shoo-in when he only squeaked out a win against the single worst candidate republicans could have nominated. He's one of the least popular senators in the country in a pretty swingy state and he's only getting more frail and senile.

[Pandaguineapig]

Which Reid would totally win, based on the coattails.

I'm just not seeing anyone other than Sandoval having much chance.

I don't know why people keep insisting that Reid is a shoo-in when he only squeaked out a win against the single worst candidate republicans could have nominated. He's one of the least popular senators in the country in a pretty swingy state and he's only getting more frail and senile.

People think Reid has this masterful turnout machine or something that can work wonders. Well, if he has such a machine, where was it in 2012 when Shelley Berkeley lost? Where was it last year, when the republicans swept the statewide offices, won all 3 winnable U.S. House seats, and got majorities in both houses of the Nevada legislature - including picking up several seats that were never supposed to have real risk of flipping. Reid's turnout machine simply doesn't exist - he only won in 2010 because he was running against a michele-bachmann type lunatic. Reid is unpopular, ineffective in the senate, and probably easy to attack.

A Reid vs. Sandoval Race would be Likely R to start. A Reid vs. Hutchinson/Krolicki/Heck/Amodei race would be Lean R to start. Reid vs. Roberson/Brower/Beers would start at Toss-Up.

Reid would start at Lean D over one of the 'accidental constitutional officers' (Laxalt/Cegavske/Schwartz/Knecht), but even one of them could very well beat him in the right situation.

Shelley Berkley is no Harry Reid and 2014 is no 2010...

You're right, Berkley was much more with it than Reid is currently. Like Wulfric said the "turnout Machine" is a myth and Reid probably isn't in the physical or mental shape to campaign as strongly as he used to.