NV Congressional Races 2016

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I still think Heck, who I think briefly ran for the Senate in 2010, might be a more likely candidate than we think, and is merely acting like he doesn't want it as part of the NVGOP-wide (and really national GOP-wide) effort to get Sandoval to run against Reid. Krolicki has a grudge against Reid and I think his chances of running if none of the Big Three (Amodei, Heck, Sandoval) run are greater than 50%, as well. Of course, I'm not one to contradict The Ralston himself.

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I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

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I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

Uh, I didn't specifically address those odds, uh, I was addressing the chances of Sandoval running, but nice try. As far as those chances go, I wouldn't write Reid off so quickly, especially under presidential turnout. Republicans hate Reid, and it's very personal, so they will try hard to beat him, but there is no guarantee that they will be successful.

I think Republicans need Sandoval to beat Reid in a presidential year.  As seen in Kentucky, voters don't split tickets like they used to.

Nevada is more elastic than Kentucky, so there will be more crossover voters, but Reid will still benefit from increased polarization among Democratic voters, on top of his incumbency.

I think they are about the same in elasticity.  Look at how well Beshear has done in governors races. 

I still say that Reid doesn't lose in a presidential year unless Sandoval runs.  Incumbents don't lose in states their presidential nominee is carrying without a big scandal or a weird situation like Mel Carnahan's death in 2000.

Alaska-2008 might be a good comparison. Stevens, like Reid, had been around forever and had gotten unpopular: he lost.

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Alaska-2008 might be a good comparison. Stevens, like Reid, had been around forever and had gotten unpopularindicted: he lost.

Well, Reid has been indicted by the court of public opinion.

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Reid's main focus would be to drive Sandoval's favorables down early and he would have a good opportunity to do that. With Republicans in control of the Senate, that makes it a little easier for Reid to play defense and tie Sandoval to ineffective leadership.

Wouldn't it be much easier for Sandoval to tie Reid to ineffective leadership, since Reid is, unlike Sandoval, an ineffective leader?

Sandoval, of course, has no need to dirty himself trying to get Reid's favorables down; they're already horrendous. The optics of Sandoval running a positive campaign in the face of Reid's negativity would also be fantastic for Reid, I'm sure.

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Krolicki has a personal grudge against Reid and long-standing senatorial ambitions. If Sandoval and the House GOPers are all out, I would love to see the state GOP unite against Krolicki. Krolicki v. Reid would be a vicious, no-holds-barred race.

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Which Reid would totally win, based on the coattails.

I'm just not seeing anyone other than Sandoval having much chance.

Coattails of what? Heller won in 2012 even as Obama won up-ticket. Obama is stronger than Hillary in these western states (Colorado is most prominent, but the same effect should apply here), and Nevada voters broadly disapprove of Reid. On paper Reid should lose.

Of course Reid is very good at taking down his opponents, which is why he may still win -- in fact, he may have engineered the indictment of Krolicki back in 2010 to keep him out of the race. Reid definitely fears Krolicki.

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What happened to Krolicki? Is he still thinking of running? Couldn't he beat Roberson in a primary?

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Has there been a shift where Hutchison is now likelier to run than Roberson? I don't see them running against each other since they're both from the Sandoval wing of the party, and Hutchison is probably higher-profile than Roberson (and he's definitely very ambitious).

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Much as I feel sympathy for Tarkanian, who really deserved to be the Republican Senate nominee in 2010, and would probably have become a Senator had he won the primary, he was clearly weaker than Roberson in this race. Shame he won, I guess.