NV Congressional Races 2016

[DrScholl]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

[DrScholl]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

[DrScholl]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

Uh, I didn't specifically address those odds, uh, I was addressing the chances of Sandoval running, but nice try. As far as those chances go, I wouldn't write Reid off so quickly, especially under presidential turnout. Republicans hate Reid, and it's very personal, so they will try hard to beat him, but there is no guarantee that they will be successful.

[DrScholl]

I would place the chances of Sandoval running at about 50-50, maybe even slightly higher. While it's perfectly possible that he's not interested, These rumors of him being "too scared of Reid" or "having formed some agreement" (the latter of which doesn't even make sense, as it's not as if the so-called "Reid Turnout Machine" would have helped any NV democrat this year except for MAYBE Horsford and/or Miller.) are mere rumor, nothing more, and should not be believed one bit without further evidence.

I think I'm going to trust the expert of Nevada politics over some random "independent" from Minnesota

If anything that was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

You guys are so whipped that the thought of another pounding in '16 just can't even be discussed, can it?

Here we go. Ralston's analysis is pretty good in Nevada, I'd be surprised if he was wrong about Sandoval running.

Uh, Ralston just listed 8 different candidates who he gives a greater than 50% chance of beating Reid, and then proceeded to give us a list of "accidental officers" before informing us if one of them is running against Reid the election is 50/50. I'd have to say that if Reid is down to 50/50 against an accidental officer his odds don't look good, regardless of whether Sandoval runs or not.

Uh, I didn't specifically address those odds, uh, I was addressing the chances of Sandoval running, but nice try. As far as those chances go, I wouldn't write Reid off so quickly, especially under presidential turnout. Republicans hate Reid, and it's very personal, so they will try hard to beat him, but there is no guarantee that they will be successful.

I think Republicans need Sandoval to beat Reid in a presidential year.  As seen in Kentucky, voters don't split tickets like they used to.

Nevada is more elastic than Kentucky, so there will be more crossover voters, but Reid will still benefit from increased polarization among Democratic voters, on top of his incumbency.

[DrScholl]

Reid's main focus would be to drive Sandoval's favorables down early and he would have a good opportunity to do that. With Republicans in control of the Senate, that makes it a little easier for Reid to play defense and tie Sandoval to ineffective leadership.

[DrScholl]

There are very rarely variances partisan between a presidential result and a Senate result involving an incumbent. It happened in Alaska, but that involved an indictment.

[DrScholl]

Sandoval had declined to run before, so that really isn't a surprise.