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Author Topic: Robotics  (Read 1206 times)
BigSkyBob
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« on: November 16, 2014, 02:09:55 PM »

Robotics will be a chief driver of demographics in the near future. Basically, soon jobs will be automated out of existence even faster than they are created. That will transforms our demographics and our politics. Immigration will be reduced, perhaps dramatically as the demand for labor drops. Unemployment, and underemployment will continue to lower the birthrate. Our politics eventually transform from one that favors the party of immigrates to one that favors the party of family formation.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2014, 02:19:33 PM »

Alternative: a party that favors massive welfare programs and/or something like a guaranteed minimum income becomes massively popular in the face of widespread and growing unemployment
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2014, 03:12:37 PM »

Alternative: a party that favors massive welfare programs and/or something like a guaranteed minimum income becomes massively popular in the face of widespread and growing unemployment

I heard the politics of "job training" programs explained like this:

Imagine placing 100 dogs in a room with 95 bones. Result: after the fighting is over, 95 dogs have a bone and five are licking their wounds.

As a solution imagine taking each dog aside and training him about how to compete more vigorously for a bone. Result: after the fighting is over 95 dogs have a bone, five dogs are licking their wounds, and 100 dog trainers have drawn a paycheck.

The real problem is a lack of jobs, not a lack of "training."

This applies as well to the current obsession with "education." The result isn't more jobs. It is more debt.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2014, 01:55:14 AM »

that's mostly a matter rhetoric. For the most part 'job creation' is squeezing on a balloon. More jobs here, less jobs there, though the baloon may be generally expanding or contracting. Education, job training, infrastructure, and so forth don't really create net jobs, but they do enhance productivity (hopefully)
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2014, 02:59:31 AM »

that's mostly a matter rhetoric. For the most part 'job creation' is squeezing on a balloon. More jobs here, less jobs there, though the baloon may be generally expanding or contracting. Education, job training, infrastructure, and so forth don't really create net jobs, but they do enhance productivity (hopefully)

That's been the case for all of humanity, but it is not a guaranteed trend. Every other generation faced "exponential" increases in technology and job redundancy that were magnitudes less than what we'll see over the next 50 years.



We are going to reach the point in which human jobs will become astoundingly scarce. I'd say a century from now, even the more abstract professions (writers, musicians, etc) will be replaced by artificially-intelligent solutions that can learn and utilize creative thought. There will need to be a rapid expansion of socialist policies and public ownership that move both our national economy and the global economy toward an automated, socialist profit-sharing model (something that results in public government spending hovering around 80% of GDP). Nanotechnology in particular is going to fuel this. BK already touched on it, but the profit-sharing aspect of it will essentially translate to a minimum income (that will in essence have to be a livable wage). People will be able to choose whether they want to work or not to earn additional income, but the sheer number of jobs that will be available will likely be a fraction of the capable workforce. Even niche industries (retail, food service, hospitality) will ultimately need to be nationalized to a large degree, in order to guarantee that the human race doesn't descend into starvation and irreversible poverty (and yes, by that point, even the government will be able to provide "superior" and customized products that compete against each other, thanks in large part to nanotech).

In other words, the public sector - through largely automated means - will produce, and then pay its citizens to consume in order to keep an economy functional. There will still be private sector elements, but the large majority of economic output and liquidity will go from public sector to citizens and back to the public sector, helping to ensure that economic inequality doesn't spiral to ungodly levels (even by today's terms) and a subsequent collapse of a civilization that no longer has need for human labor.

The alternative is that we continue to approach the technological Singularity with complete and utter disregard for this premise, and continue to pretend that 20th century free-market capitalism will be a viable pathway forward. Perhaps we can return to a truly free-market model after we have liberated ourselves from this planet and have developed space-age equivalents of manufacturing, agriculture and resource production that can give individuals the ability to be truly self-reliant in space, but otherwise, we will lock into place a system in which those who have wealth and the means of production will be able to continue controlling them in an uncontested fashion forever. Under this potential system, the elite will merely pay people a pittance to keep them in line and "satisfied" just enough so that they don't rebel, but as a whole, humans will be useless to the wealthy, who produce using the automated means mentioned above. They will essentially pay everyone just enough to continue to keep some semblance of an economy going so that their wealth and privilege is maintained. Otherwise, their wealth becomes worthless.
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muon2
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« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2014, 08:52:12 AM »

Frederick Pohl's 1954 classic novella "The Midas Plague" should be required reading for this thread.
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Cory
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« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2014, 03:41:43 PM »

Alternative: a party that favors massive welfare programs and/or something like a guaranteed minimum income becomes massively popular in the face of widespread and growing unemployment

This is probably what will happen.
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