National swing of states 2004-2012

[hopper]

Arkansas R+15
West Virginia R+13
Tennessee R+7
Kentucky R+3
Missouri R+3
Louisiana R+2
Massachusetts R+2
Oklahoma R+2
Utah R+2'
Wyoming R+1
Kansas D+1
Arizona D+2
Pennsylvania D+2
Alabama D+3
South Dakota D+4
Washington DC D+4
Minnesota D+5
New Hampshire D+5
Ohio D+5
Florida D+6
Idaho D+6
Maine D+6
Michigan D+6
South Carolina D+6
Wisconsin D+6
Connecticut D+7
Illinois D+7
Iowa D+7
Montana D+7
National Swing D+7
Texas D+7
North Dakota D+8
Oregon D+8
Rhode Island D+8
Mississippi D+9
Nevada D+9
Washington D+9
Georgia D+10
Indiana D+10
New Jersey D+10
New York D+10
North Carolina D+10
Alaska D+11
Colorado D+11
Nebraska D+11
New Mexico D+11
Delaware D+12
Virginia D+12
California D+13
Maryland D+13
Vermont D+16
Hawaii D+35

[retromike22]

I made a map:

+1 to +4 = 30% Shade
+5 to +9 = 50% Shade
+10 to + 14 = 70% Shade
+15 and up = 90% Shade

[hopper]

Wait...Florida should be D+6. Kentucky should be R+3. Sorry.

[retromike22]

k I updated the map

You should edit the first post.

Nebraska seems odd...

[Miles]

County swing map:



Trend:

[Slander and/or Libel]

What's the difference between the two county maps? What's the second one showing?

[Miles]

What's the difference between the two county maps? What's the second one showing?

^ Trend is the county swing compared to the national swing.

E.g, if a county swung 5% to Obama it would trending 2% R.

[memphis]

#hillbillies

[Skill and Chance]

Thanks for the map, Miles!  Some observations:

1. Rural Texas is behaving like an extension of Appalachia, not like Deep South.  It's remarkable how strong this trend is even with a Texan on the ticket in 2004.

2. You can see hints of the emerging Democratic problems in Iowa and rural Maine here.

3.  Florida Republicans look precarious.  The trend in Orlando and Miami is quite dramatic.

4. The NC mountains (outside of Asheville) look overdue for a hard right shift.  There were hints of this in the Tillis win.  If it happens, it would be enough to take NC back off the map for a while.

5. The Kerry home state effect was quite strong, considering MA barely moved from 2008-12.

6.  Georgia looks like a much better D opportunity than Arizona here, but I wonder how much of that is the result of Obama's unique strength with black voters?

[retromike22]

6.  Georgia looks like a much better D opportunity than Arizona here, but I wonder how much of that is the result of Obama's unique strength with black voters?

I'm also wondering if Arizona didn't shift D because of McCain being the nominee in 2008, and in 2012 with Romney there is also a sizeable Mormon population (about 6%, the fifth highest in the U.S.) And Obama didn't really compete for AZ in 2012, I'm unsure if Kerry did.

[Landslide Lyndon]

4. The NC mountains (outside of Asheville) look overdue for a hard right shift.  There were hints of this in the Tillis win.  If it happens, it would be enough to take NC back off the map for a while.

The NC mountains contain a negligible number of voters. As long as urban areas continue to trend Democratic, North Carolina will remain a swing state.

[Miles]

4. The NC mountains (outside of Asheville) look overdue for a hard right shift.  There were hints of this in the Tillis win.  If it happens, it would be enough to take NC back off the map for a while.

The NC mountains contain a negligible number of voters. As long as urban areas continue to trend Democratic, North Carolina will remain a swing state.

This. Many mountain/piedmont counties are 1) already 65%+ R, so not much room to swing right and 2) growing slower than the rest of the state.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

1. Rural Texas is behaving like an extension of Appalachia, not like Deep South.  It's remarkable how strong this trend is even with a Texan on the ticket in 2004.

-Yes, because they are all whites.

[Gass3268]

2. You can see hints of the emerging Democratic problems in Iowa and rural Maine here.

It should be noted that almost every county about 50,000 voters in Iowa is trending Democrat (Polk, Linn, Black Hawk, Scott, Story). Only exceptions are Johnson (already high 60's Dem) and Dubuque (possibly the one county Dems may have to worry about in the future). Should also be noted that these counties are also gaining many more people compared to the counties trending Republican (other than Dallas County and up in the Northwest part of the state). Just some thoughts.

[Rockefeller GOP]

2. You can see hints of the emerging Democratic problems in Iowa and rural Maine here.

It should be noted that almost every county about 50,000 voters in Iowa is trending Democrat (Polk, Linn, Black Hawk, Scott, Story). Only exceptions are Johnson (already high 60's Dem) and Dubuque (possibly the one county Dems may have to worry about in the future). Should also be noted that these counties are also gaining many more people compared to the counties trending Republican (other than Dallas County and up in the Northwest part of the state). Just some thoughts.

Yes, but looking at the Senate map, Des Monie's suburbs - which are growing - look very GOP-friendly.

[Miles]

^ I wouldn't have thought so by looking at the county map, but IA as a whole is actually trending D (very slightly). The rural GOP areas are losing influence but I wonder how the suburbanization will compensate for that, going forward.

[Person Man]

Where would you say the Democrats' future lies?

[Miles]

Where would you say the Democrats' future lies?

Generally speaking, a coastal coalition seems most feasible. With the exception of SC, they should aim to win every state that borders the Atlantic ocean, from ME to FL.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Where would you say the Democrats' future lies?

Generally speaking, a coastal coalition seems most feasible. With the exception of SC, they should aim to win every state that borders the Atlantic ocean, from ME to FL.

Plus the inner west states (New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada).

[Miles]

Where would you say the Democrats' future lies?

Generally speaking, a coastal coalition seems most feasible. With the exception of SC, they should aim to win every state that borders the Atlantic ocean, from ME to FL.

Plus the inner west states (New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada).

Yes. I forgot to say they already have the west coast, with those three being almost an extension of that.

[retromike22]

Like this?

[IceSpear]

AR/WV...*sigh* I guess that liberal French speaking elitist John Kerry was just so much better of a fit for them than Obama.

[Indy Texas]

AR/WV...*sigh* I guess that liberal French speaking elitist John Kerry was just so much better of a fit for them than Obama.

Yes. And clearly the people who repeatedly elect pols like John D. Rockefeller, IV and Gaston Caperton, III only voted against Obama because he's a privileged elite who doesn't share the roots of salt-of-the-earth workin' folks.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

AR/WV...*sigh* I guess that liberal French speaking elitist John Kerry was just so much better of a fit for them than Obama.

Yes. And clearly the people who repeatedly elect pols like John D. Rockefeller, IV and Gaston Caperton, III only voted against Obama because he's a privileged elite who doesn't share the roots of salt-of-the-earth workin' folks.

Over 90% of the swing to the GOP in WV shown on this map is from 2008-2012.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

6.  Georgia looks like a much better D opportunity than Arizona here, but I wonder how much of that is the result of Obama's unique strength with black voters?

I'm also wondering if Arizona didn't shift D because of McCain being the nominee in 2008, and in 2012 with Romney there is also a sizeable Mormon population (about 6%, the fifth highest in the U.S.) And Obama didn't really compete for AZ in 2012, I'm unsure if Kerry did.

AZ is pure fools gold...