Is Landrieu done for? DSCC cancels many of their ad buys in LA markets.
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  Is Landrieu done for? DSCC cancels many of their ad buys in LA markets.
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Question: Is Landrieu done for this time?
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Author Topic: Is Landrieu done for? DSCC cancels many of their ad buys in LA markets.  (Read 2261 times)
Lincoln Republican
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« on: November 16, 2014, 10:21:12 PM »
« edited: November 16, 2014, 10:41:55 PM by Lincoln Republican »

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Democrats' campaign committee on Thursday began canceling plans for television ads in Louisiana's major markets to help Sen. Mary Landrieu's runoff campaign against Republican Bill Cassidy, making her re-election bid an even steeper challenge.

www.theind.com/news/indnews/19528-senate-dems-cancel-ads-in-la

Is Landrieu done for this time?

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Talleyrand
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« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2014, 10:22:22 PM »

The real question is whether she will cross 40%. Strong chance she won't.

She will be the last Democratic Senator from Louisiana in our lifetime.
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Frodo
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« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2014, 10:42:38 PM »

Progressive Democrats had better hope Mary Landrieu loses -along with other moderate-to-conservative Democrats still in office (at any governmental level)- because their continued presence is an argument against their theory that the Democratic Party would be best served in future elections by moving further to the left.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2014, 10:51:03 PM »

I'm not sold Landrieu is dead. She has come back from near impossible situations before and survived in a state that's become redder with each election. Her job is to raise her standing with whites from 18% to 35%, and convince enough Louisiana whites she's good enough to retain in office, while keeping African American turnout as high as it was November 4. While hard, this is not necessarily impossible.

Cassidy is not a telegenic or talented politician, either. Landrieu could use the national spotlight around Keystone to show her distance from the president, who is likely to veto the bill and her commitment to energy issues, which is important to Louisiana. (I feel this is why it's important that Senate Republicans withhold cloture from the Keystone bill).

I'm actually of the view Landrieu could barely survive a runoff. I don't think we should write off Landrieu until the votes are actually counted.

But the fact the DSCC has cancelled ad buys in many of the major media markets in Louisiana does have some significance.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2014, 10:54:07 PM »

I think the ad buys have been canceled for a while now. I think it was like RSCC/Republican-favored PACs $7.2 million vs. Democrat-favored PACS $110,000 in the ad war for the runoff right after the cancelation right after the general election.

Landrieu is likely severely in trouble.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2014, 10:54:30 PM »

This is old news, we already knew this.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2014, 10:57:00 PM »

Have we not already discussed this? Tongue
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Frodo
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« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2014, 11:02:59 PM »

Progressive Democrats had better hope Mary Landrieu loses -along with other moderate-to-conservative Democrats still in office (at any governmental level)- because their continued presence is an argument against their theory that the Democratic Party would be best served in future elections by moving further to the left.

I've no idea, but are there enough states to support a Senate majority with the coalition ideology you promote? I count Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, New Hampshire, Louisiana, Colorado, Virginia (to a degree), and Florida as states where moderate Democrats survive and exist. Wiping them out and gaining Illinois, Maine (when Collins retires), and Wisconsin wouldn't net you the Senate. It'd actually benefit the GOP.

Taking out Virginia, which is turning more liberal and blue, -8 for the Democrats and -3 for the GOP nets the GOP 59 seats. Obviously this is rudimentary math, but moderate Democrats seem essential to the Senate majority.

The House also needs a fair number of moderate and conservative Democrats to form a Democratic majority, as well.

I am not the one demanding (either explicitly or implicitly) a purification of the party....
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hopper
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« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2014, 11:06:45 PM »

Well she was trailing Susie Tyrell in 2002 at this point and came back to win but the state was still more friendly to Democrats in 2002 than it is now.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2014, 11:17:31 PM »

The real question is whether she will cross 40%. Strong chance she won't.

She will be the last Democratic Senator from Louisiana in our lifetime.

Bill Nelson might well be the last from Florida the way both parties are trending nationally too (I'm serious)
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« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2014, 11:28:02 PM »

Progressive Democrats had better hope Mary Landrieu loses -along with other moderate-to-conservative Democrats still in office (at any governmental level)- because their continued presence is an argument against their theory that the Democratic Party would be best served in future elections by moving further to the left.

I know, we'd never win D+9 districts like CA-46 without a Blue Dog.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2014, 11:40:15 PM »

The DSCC started pulling ads right after the 4th. Old news.

I'm not ruling out anything at this point, and I expect Landrieu to get the 42% she got on the 4th, and likely a bit higher, but her path to 50% is very very very hard to see without support from the national party. Even if the senate passes and the president signs Keystone, it won't help significantly because Cassidy is a sponsor of the house version and would be in the majority party on the energy committee, while Landrieu would be in the minority party of said committee and would no longer be its chair. The runoff will have even lower turnout than the midterm election itself, further benefiting Cassidy, and there aren't going to be a lot of Maness voters staying home, as Maness is actively campaigning for Cassidy.

The runoff is still weeks away, so let's wait and see if a miracle comes to be, but I'm currently expecting an 8-14 point Cassidy win, and would be extremely surprised if Landrieu pulls it out.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2014, 11:41:39 PM »

I would be shocked if she gets >45%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2014, 12:04:39 AM »
« Edited: November 17, 2014, 01:26:35 AM by IDS Emperor Maxwell »

Yeah she's getting Blanched. It's already over. Her newest ad is potent but it doesn't matter because 96% of the ads in this race are Cassidy's and only 4% are hers.
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KCDem
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« Reply #14 on: November 17, 2014, 01:25:30 AM »

RIP white democrats.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #15 on: November 17, 2014, 01:41:36 AM »

Considering immigration and the China deal, Democrats aren't waiting even for her sake to proceed with these potential landmines (for a Democrat in such a Republican state). They are looking ahead to 2016 and have written her off.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #16 on: November 17, 2014, 01:56:47 AM »

Progressive Democrats had better hope Mary Landrieu loses -along with other moderate-to-conservative Democrats still in office (at any governmental level)- because their continued presence is an argument against their theory that the Democratic Party would be best served in future elections by moving further to the left.

I know, we'd never win D+9 districts like CA-46 without a Blue Dog.

Talk about D+9 districts... we almost lost a D+7 district with one.

If that doesn't say "give the coalition a reason to turn out" I don't know what does.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #17 on: November 17, 2014, 11:21:54 PM »

Nope.
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« Reply #18 on: November 17, 2014, 11:30:50 PM »

Not that I am aware of. I think they had roughly $2.3 million blocked out for the runoff, the DSCC had about $1.9 million. The Democrats started pulling placements around Nov. 6.

I haven't seen a story nor any indication that the RSCC has pulled out of the race. I am sure Miles can give us better color as to what's going on with the TV commercials down there.
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Wisconsin+17
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« Reply #19 on: November 18, 2014, 03:15:57 PM »

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Hush, you.

I'm 100 percent in support of hunting down every single blue dog and putting them down.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: November 18, 2014, 08:19:20 PM »

The real question is whether she will cross 40%. Strong chance she won't.

She will be the last Democratic Senator from Louisiana in our lifetime.

Bill Nelson might well be the last from Florida the way both parties are trending nationally too (I'm serious)

Are you on crack?
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RI
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« Reply #21 on: November 18, 2014, 08:43:54 PM »

Here's the real question: Does Landrieu get a higher or lower share of the vote in the runoff than in the general?
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« Reply #22 on: November 18, 2014, 08:53:34 PM »

So now that the Keystone XL Pipeline was KIA in the Senate, does Landrieu lose by 21 points or 22 points? No pipeline for you.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: November 18, 2014, 08:55:20 PM »

Here's the real question: Does Landrieu get a higher or lower share of the vote in the runoff than in the general?
Thinking slightly higher.

Hopefully some legitimate pollster takes a look at the race.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #24 on: November 18, 2014, 08:58:04 PM »

The real question is whether she will cross 40%. Strong chance she won't.

She will be the last Democratic Senator from Louisiana in our lifetime.

Bill Nelson might well be the last from Florida the way both parties are trending nationally too (I'm serious)

Are you on crack?

Nah he's just dumb.
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