Arizona 2016 Demographics?

[JRP1994]

Question for those more familiar with recent demographic trends in Arizona than I am -- what is the racial/age demographic makeup in AZ likely to be in 2016, and, assuming Clinton were to match the performance there of...

Bill Clinton
Al Gore
John Kerry
Barak Obama

How close would Hillary come to winning the state?

[Mehmentum]

Some back of the envelope calculations:

The hispanic population in Arizona grew from 25% to 30% between 2000 and 2012. Projected linearly, that would give Arizona a 31.67% Hispanic population.  link: http://www.tucsonweekly.com/TheRange/archives/2013/06/14/hispanics-leading-minority-growth-in-az

In 2012, Hispanics made up 18% of the Arizona electorate.  The share of Hispanics in the electorate is 60% of the share of Hispanics in the general population.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AZ/president

Assuming Hispanics and whites vote in 2016 at the same rates they did in 2012, Hispanics would make up 19% of the population, only a 1% increase. 

However, in 2012 Arizona wasn't heavily contested.  If Democrats focus resources on Arizona, they could increase Hispanic turnout. 

In Nevada, the portion of Hispanics in the electorate is 69% of the portion of Hispanics in the general population.  This kind of voting pattern would put Hispanics at 22% of the electorate in 2016.  That would get Democrats up to perhaps 47% of the vote, with an Obama 2012 performance across demographic groups.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Even if Jeb Bush wins the nomination, it will be incredibly hard for Republicans to win support from Hispanics here considering the horrible treatment they give them politically there.

[5280]

Arizona 2016 demographics = Colorado 2000 demographics voting trends.

Then again, AZ is not like CO and could vote differently.  I see it as a hybrid of CO/TX.