Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again?

[publicunofficial]

Massachusetts, Maryland, Illinois, Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New York cannot be held by Republicans forever. I also expect Democrats to win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, and Georgia at some point in the next decade or so.

[Mister Mets]

It should happen at some point just with the law of averages, but they're at a disadvantage.

Republicans have some systematic advantages, including an edge in smaller states (Wyoming and the Dakotas are worth as many Governors as New York, Pennsylvania and California), a stronger bench (due to wins in state legislatures, congress and minor statewide offices) and a midterm advantage that should help even when Republicans are in the White House.

Republicans have a tendency to favor statewide approaches, which provides a further edge here, and may explain why Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Mexico, Michigan and Maine will have Republican Governors.

[KingSweden]

Massachusetts, Maryland, Illinois, Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New York cannot be held by Republicans forever. I also expect Democrats to win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, and Georgia at some point in the next decade or so.

Let's assume that the balance of power stays the same after 2015/2016 (R's lose NC, Ds lose WV for net change of 0), but lets start with that assumption, anyways. New Jersey is Lean D IMO, though certainly no shoo-in. If we hold Virginia (Tossup/Tilt ever-so-slightly D), then we're at 19. I think the circumstances dooming Maryland and Illinois this year were fairly unique and are unlikely to be replicated, which should flip both of these states back to us. Now we're at 21 before getting into the term-limited governors. Maine should be a decent Lean D, depending on how the next four years of LePage go. No Cutler would certainly help. Let's also assume NM starts at Lean D, neither Sanchez nor Duran strike me as particularly scary candidates and the D bench is actually pretty decent here. Now we're are 23, within striking distance of a majority.

Now let's go with Florida flipping D with a better candidate than Charlie Crist (though on the reverse, the Rs will have a Putnam or Atwater or Bondi here, MUCH better than Rick Scott), so Pure Tossup. Michigan should/could swing back D after 8 years of Snyder (this seems like a state that likes to rotate parties in control) and maybe a Gretchen Whitmer carries us to 24. Nevada and Ohio I think the state parties are too beleaguered after the most recent wipeouts - Ross Miller should have been the frontrunner here, but we'll see. He'll have to share a ticket with Heller. I'd give these both to the R for now. That leaves Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia as the key states. Georgia is probably not quite there yet, though the Ds have a deceptively strong bench. Wisconsin I think the D's have a good chance of flipping, same as Iowa PROVIDED that Branstad doesn't run, though the R bench is good too with Reynolds and Northey. Arizona is probably a stretch too. So let's be very generous to the Ds and split those 2-2, which puts us at 25 exactly waiting on Florida and we hope we hold Colorado and Pennsylvania. Not undoable, but it would require everything going right. Like somebody else said, small states give the GOP a structural advantage in terms of pure # of states.

[DS0816]

Re: Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again?

Yes.

36 of the states' 50 have their gubernatorial elections in midterm years. That's 72 percent of the nation's states. And nine of the Top 10 most-populous states have their gubernatorial elections in midterms: 1. California; 2. Texas; 3. New York; 4. Florida; 5. Illinois; 6. Pennsylvania; 7. Ohio; 8. Georgia; 9. Michigan. The No. 10 in rank, North Carolina, is the only exception. That state has its gubernatorial elections along with presidential election years.

For Democrats to win a majority of governorships…well, the way the two parties are nowadays (and how voters handle their votes), it's likely that will manifest under a Republican U.S. president with a midterm in which Democrats have won majority-control (pickups or holds) which would include governorships. In fact, so many of the states are on a pattern of electing governors belonging to the party opposite an incumbent president. This is true in all sorts of states. In fact, in 2002, Democrats won gubernatorial pickups in "red" presidential states Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wyoming. The midterm wave of 2006, in which Democrats won majority-control pickups of both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate (plus a majority of governorships), saw all those 2002 Democratic pickup winners, including the ones in "blue" presidential states, re-elected with stronger margins.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Next midterm with an unpopular Republican president.