Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again?
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  Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again?
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Author Topic: Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again?  (Read 3231 times)
old timey villain
cope1989
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« on: November 17, 2014, 11:46:07 AM »

After these midterms, there will only be 18 Democratic governors. The GOP has taken over the governorships across the South but they've also been able to win in blue/purple states in their good midterm years (2010, 2014). How and when could they gain a majority again and which states are the top targets?

And what years do you see this happening?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2014, 11:56:32 AM »

It's certainly possible in the near term future, because Obama won 26 states both times.  So there is room for a narrow majority of governorships.  I think sweeping the Obama 2012 states the next time there is a Republican midterm is the path of least resistance.  They might also grab NC with it being up in more favorable presidential years.
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sg0508
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« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2014, 12:05:21 PM »

The big year for the GOP was actually back in '98.  They took quite a few that year.  The answer to the OP's question is probably "yes".  However, one thing working in the GOP's favor is that the majority of those races happens during the midterms and not the presidential years.  Thus, turnout is down and we know that helps Republicans.  You think the GOP would have won some of the mansions they did this year with turnout up in a presidential year and where the blue states would have supported the Democratic presidential candidate by large margins (i.e. IL, MD, etc)? I think not.

That also helps to explain why the Republicans continue to fail to win the statehouse in a state like WA despite putting up some decent candidates in recent cycles.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2014, 01:10:24 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2014, 06:53:14 PM by old timey villain »

So here are the top targets for the Democrats over the next several cycles by tier.

Tier 1 (great shot of pickup)

Maryland
New Jersey
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Mexico

Tier 2 (good shot of pickup)

Massachusetts
Illinois
Ohio
Nevada
Maine
Florida
North Carolina

Tier 3 (possible pickup)
Georgia
Arizona
Alaska


I places IL and MA in tier 2 (despite being very blue states) because a string of corrupt Dem governors in IL could keep them out of the mansion for a while if Rauner behaves himself (unlikely though), and because MA is known for electing GOP governors to balance out the Democratic hegemony everywhere else in the state.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2014, 01:23:04 PM »

^ Add IL/MD to tier 1 or 2.

I'm interested to see what happens in AK, but I'm not sure they'd try to pick it up, after joing with Walker this cycle.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2014, 01:33:24 PM »

^ Add IL/MD to tier 1 or 2.

I'm interested to see what happens in AK, but I'm not sure they'd try to pick it up, after joing with Walker this cycle.

Totally forgot about Maryland! That might be ahead of New Jersey
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windjammer
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« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2014, 01:40:34 PM »

Considering the GOP will probably win the presidency, I guess that will soon happen Tongue.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2014, 02:13:06 PM »

Maryland and Massachusetts, depending on how that goes down, are probably the most obvious targets in 2018. 2018 looks pretty good for them, I have to say.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2014, 04:25:33 PM »
« Edited: November 18, 2014, 02:16:30 PM by Gass3268 »

Here is where things are right now:



Here is where I see the 2015/2016 elections:



In 2015 Democrats are having to defend Kentucky, as of now I think that's a Republican pick up. Democrats have no chance in Louisiana or Mississippi.

In 2016 incumbent Governors are term limited in Delaware, Missouri and West Virginia. As of now Democrats keep Delaware but lose Missouri and West Virginia to Republicans. I don't see Democrats losing New Hampshire or Washington, but they both certainly could be close races depending on the Republican candidate. Montana will be a tossup, but as of now my gut tells me that Bullock pulls out a close win like 2012. I don't see Republicans losing in Indiana or North Dakota, so take them off the board. Utah would be interesting if Matheson runs, but I still think the Republicans would win. As of now I'm picking the Democrats to pick up North Carolina as the incumbent is very unpopular, but obviously this could change.

2017 will be a big year for Democrats as they need to get New Jersey back if they want any chance of getting to 26. Also they need to defend Virginia. I'm gonna guess right now that Democrats win both races.



So before the 2018 elections, if my previous predictions are correct, the partisan divide will be 32 Republicans / 17 Democrats / 1 Independent. That means that Democrats would need to pick up 9 (12 if they don't pick up any seats between now and 2018, while still losing Montana, New Jersey and North Carolina), which would be hard.

Here are my tiers (For the sake of this Alaska is considered to have a Democratic Gov, because as of now I don't see a Democrat challenging Walker, but for the overall numbers he is still a Democrat):

Tier 1 (Should win) (30%)
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts  

Tier 2 (Competitive) (40%)
Florida
Michigan (Synder is term limited)
Nevada (Sandoval is term limited, but Democratic bench was destroyed)
New Mexico (Martinez is term limited, could possibly be moved to Tier 1)
Ohio (Kasich is term limited, but Democratic Party of Ohio sucks, could be moved to Tier 3)
Wisconsin

Tier 3 (Could be competitive, but gonna need help to win) (50%)
Arizona
Georgia
Iowa (If Branstad finally retires, this moves up to Tier 2)

Tier 4 (Not gonna happen) (60%)
Alabama
Arkansas (Done for the Democrats)
Idaho
Kansas (If it couldn't happen this year)
Nebraska
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming

Previous predictions and Democrats/Independents re-winning their 2014 victories are gray.



If the Democrats win back Illinois, Maine, Maryland and Massachusetts, which they should, they would need to get 5 to 8 of Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin. Not easy, but not impossible.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2014, 04:50:22 PM »

Oklahoma could be Tier 2 in the right situation - Dorman performed respectably this year, and four more years of Fallin isn't going to be good for the Republicans. Chances are, if 2018 is a Democrat wave, then Oklahoma is definitely possible.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2014, 04:54:20 PM »

Oklahoma could be Tier 2 in the right situation - Dorman performed respectably this year, and four more years of Fallin isn't going to be good for the Republicans. Chances are, if 2018 is a Democrat wave, then Oklahoma is definitely possible.

So under my tiers, maybe a move to 3?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2014, 05:08:42 PM »

Oklahoma could be Tier 2 in the right situation - Dorman performed respectably this year, and four more years of Fallin isn't going to be good for the Republicans. Chances are, if 2018 is a Democrat wave, then Oklahoma is definitely possible.

What's the problem with Fallin? Ok, she is a religious nutjob but I thought that would be a plus in freaking Oklahoma.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2014, 05:33:03 PM »

Oklahoma could be Tier 2 in the right situation - Dorman performed respectably this year, and four more years of Fallin isn't going to be good for the Republicans. Chances are, if 2018 is a Democrat wave, then Oklahoma is definitely possible.

What's the problem with Fallin? Ok, she is a religious nutjob but I thought that would be a plus in freaking Oklahoma.

She fumbled education pretty hard here, which is like one of three issues Oklahomans care about. For me, what angers me most is she won't touch our insane sales tax, which is one of the highest in the nation.
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Joshua
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« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2014, 06:41:36 PM »

Oklahoma could be Tier 2 in the right situation - Dorman performed respectably this year, and four more years of Fallin isn't going to be good for the Republicans. Chances are, if 2018 is a Democrat wave, then Oklahoma is definitely possible.

What's the problem with Fallin? Ok, she is a religious nutjob but I thought that would be a plus in freaking Oklahoma.

She fumbled education pretty hard here, which is like one of three issues Oklahomans care about. For me, what angers me most is she won't touch our insane sales tax, which is one of the highest in the nation.

A Republican not willing to even consider lowering a tax? Huh??
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #14 on: November 17, 2014, 06:58:39 PM »

Oklahoma could be Tier 2 in the right situation - Dorman performed respectably this year, and four more years of Fallin isn't going to be good for the Republicans. Chances are, if 2018 is a Democrat wave, then Oklahoma is definitely possible.

What's the problem with Fallin? Ok, she is a religious nutjob but I thought that would be a plus in freaking Oklahoma.

She fumbled education pretty hard here, which is like one of three issues Oklahomans care about. For me, what angers me most is she won't touch our insane sales tax, which is one of the highest in the nation.

A Republican not willing to even consider lowering a tax? Huh??

Well there is a faction of Republicans that want a national sales tax in replace of the income tax, so the sales tax would have to go up in order for the income tax to go down.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #15 on: November 17, 2014, 07:02:43 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2014, 07:08:18 PM by old timey villain »

Remember guys, a Republican winning the presidency in 2016 (especially a non southern one) could potentially put some southern seats in play in 2018. In 2002 and 2006, Dems wons governorships in Tennessee and Oklahoma, and while I realize the south is transitioning into a one party region, it's not out of the realm of possibility for Democrats to stage a comeback 4 years from now if the political climate is right. Republicans won't have Obama to use as their bogeyman anymore and will actually have to run on their record and the record of the incumbent GOP president. I'm just saying it's possible.

And think of the headlines in 2018: "Northern Republicans distance themselves from President______"

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Talleyrand
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« Reply #16 on: November 17, 2014, 09:57:40 PM »

Could Joe Dorman be the Charlie Baker of 2018? Tongue
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Vega
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« Reply #17 on: November 17, 2014, 09:59:40 PM »

Could Joe Dorman be the Charlie Baker of 2018? Tongue

Potentially. He's a great candidate.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #18 on: November 17, 2014, 11:39:34 PM »

Could Joe Dorman be the Charlie Baker of 2018? Tongue

We'll see. He could certainly get Todd Hiett as an opponent (he lost the Lt. Gov. election to Jari Askins despite being generally favored.) It would probably take a weak sauce opponent.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: November 18, 2014, 07:26:21 PM »

Maryland and Massachusetts, depending on how that goes down, are probably the most obvious targets in 2018. 2018 looks pretty good for them, I have to say.

Well yeah, there's really nowhere to go but up. Tongue
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #20 on: November 18, 2014, 07:31:05 PM »

Maryland and Massachusetts, depending on how that goes down, are probably the most obvious targets in 2018. 2018 looks pretty good for them, I have to say.

Well yeah, there's really nowhere to go but up. Tongue

It also depends on how they govern. I could see Charlie Baker winning re-election by a massive margin due to being bipartisan or what not.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: November 18, 2014, 10:47:34 PM »

If the Koch syndicate gets its way, American elections will be as meaningless as elections in China.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #22 on: November 18, 2014, 11:41:45 PM »

Next midterm with an unpopular Republican president.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #23 on: November 18, 2014, 11:50:40 PM »

Of course they will, all they got to do is win 9 or more (net gain) of these vulnerable targets in 2018/2017/2016

Wisconsin
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Michigan
Ohio
Florida
Georgia
New Mexico
Nevada
North Carolina

Of course, they're under the threat of losing Missouri, Kentucky, Montana and West Virginia in 2016, as well as Virginia in 2017, so it might be awhile.
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badgate
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« Reply #24 on: November 19, 2014, 12:57:40 AM »

If the good Lord wills it.
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