Revisiting the Czechoslovakian elections of 1946

[rob in cal]

   The Czechoslovakian elections of 1946 were unique for the postwar elections of Eastern Europe in that there were no allied occupation forces present, no allied control commission etc.  They yielded a narrow majority (something like 51-48%) to the Communists and their Social Democrat allies plus the Party of Labor. 
   I've often wondered if the Czech National Socialists, Czech Peoples Party, and the Slovak Democrats, who together won about 48% of the vote, would have been able to keep Czechoslovakia out of the Communist orbit had they won a majority of the vote (and seats, a PR system was in use).  With a parliamentary majority, they might very well have been able to insist upon at least a non-partisan figure in control of the interior ministry (which controlled the police), and probably a National Socialist (President Benes' party) as prime minister.
   One route which might have led to denying the Communists and their allies a majority would have been a more democratic choice of parties running for office.  In the Czech lands, all parties to the right of the centrists People's party were banned I believe, or at any rate not allowed to field candidates.  In Slovakia, I believe the same principle was in effect, and basically non-leftists were allowed one major party, the Democrats.
   Had there been a greater spectrum of party choices, who knows what the outcome might have been.  Had the Czech agrarians been allowed to run, obviously much of their support would likely have come from those who voted National Socialist or Peoples Party, but how many voters abstained due to lack of choices, and how many voted Communist or Social Democrat but might not have had there been a more diverse choice of parties.  Clearly the Communist/Social Democratic bloc would still have done well, but I wonder if their narrow margin of victory could have been denied in a fairer ballot.

[EPG]

Given the strength of the Communists and the intense interest of one Mr J Stalin, I doubt it would have changed much, just as Italy probably wouldn't have abandoned democracy and joined the Warsaw Pact had it voted differently in 1948. Objective conditions were unfavourable for deviations from great-power politics in that era.

[ag]

Right after the Bolsheviks came to power in Russia (via a coup) they actually lost an election. Not that you would remember it: it did not matter. At all.

Don't worry: had there been a non-Communist majority here, it would have been dealt with. Communists did not take over in Czechoslovakia because they won an election.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

At best Czechslovakia might have ended up Finlandized tho given the geopolitics, that probably could only have happened in Czechia had it not been reunited with Slovakia.

[ag]

At best Czechslovakia might have ended up Finlandized tho given the geopolitics, that probably could only have happened in Czechia had it not been reunited with Slovakia.

A necessary condition for any of that would have been, at the very least, Americans staying in Pilsen. Then, there could have been some sort of trade on the American occupation zone.

[rob in cal]

Yes, I'm quite aware of the elections for the Duma held after the Bolshevik takeover.  IIRC, the Bolsheviks won about 20 %, the SR  (Social Revolutionaries) about 40%.  Then when the Duma was going to sit, the Bolsheviks disbanded it.
    Concerning Czechoslovakia, what I find so intriguing is that there were no Soviet occupation troops to enforce full communization from December 1945 on, and also President Benes was, I believe, a respected figure.  The conditions for escaping a communist outcome were better in Czechoslovakia than anywhere else in eastern Europe, but alas it was not to be.

[ag]

Yes, I'm quite aware of the elections for the Duma held after the Bolshevik takeover.  IIRC, the Bolsheviks won about 20 %, the SR  (Social Revolutionaries) about 40%.  Then when the Duma was going to sit, the Bolsheviks disbanded it.

Duma? What Duma?

It was (to have been) the Constituent Convention. Uchereditelnoye Sobraniye. Uchredilka, if you wish to be familiar. Duma was history by then.

[ag]

    Concerning Czechoslovakia, what I find so intriguing is that there were no Soviet occupation troops to enforce full communization from December 1945 on, and also President Benes was, I believe, a respected figure.  The conditions for escaping a communist outcome were better in Czechoslovakia than anywhere else in eastern Europe, but alas it was not to be.

Entering Czechoslovakia en force is not such a hard job. Germans did it in 1938, Russians did it in 1968. They had been allocated to the Soviet Zone - and that was, unfortunately, it.

The reason "Finlandization" was possible is that they had a certain respected gentleman, called Carl Gustav Mannerheim there. And that gentleman was known for administering a major bloodletting to the Russians 3 times in the previous 25 years or so. They knew, they could, probably, impose their designs on Finland in 1945 - but that would have meant, actually, fighting another war. In 1945 Finns would have lost, of course - but they would have killed a lot of Russians in the process. And once they would have started fighting, the Brits and the rest would have been hard-pressed not to support them, at least in supplies. Stalin was not ready for another hot war just yet.

Czechs, on the other hand, do not fight, nor was Benes a Mannherheim - and Stalin knew that. Their only chance was finding themselves, at least partially, in a US occupation zone. They didn´t have the luck. Benes was used to sanctify expulsion of the Germans. After that his usefulness was over.

[rob in cal]

Ag, right the elections in Russia was for a Constituent Assembly.  I wonder what kind of a constitution would have been drawn up had it been allowed to work.

[ag]

Ag, right the elections in Russia was for a Constituent Assembly.  I wonder what kind of a constitution would have been drawn up had it been allowed to work.

Well, it would have been fairly leftwing in any case. By November it was, mostly, various shades of socialists and minority parties that ran. The leading group in the Assembly were the "Right" Socialist Revolutionaries - the somewhat more moderate faction of the party behind the main terrorist organization in the country.

The main problem for them was that the SR were not willing to simply drop out of WWI unconditionally right that moment. And the soldiers were not willing to go on fighting even for another day. That was what decided it for the Bolsheviks: they had the army on their side.