Path of Least Resistance to a Democratic House

[morgieb]

tbh I think the Montana/Dakota at large districts are more winnable than the Rahall/McIntyre/Barrow/Arkansas seats at this point.

Does nobody else think the southernmost New Mexico district is also relatively vulnerable? The incumbent there is kind of an idiot.

We did win it in 2008. Wouldn't rule it out.

[smoltchanov]

I really don't see how to beat Allen (GA-12) and Love (UT-04) now, when they are incumbents. And you will need a LOT of luck plus a wave to beat such Republicans as Valadao, Gibson and some other from list above. Especially those who have relatively moderate reputation...

Valadao is clearly beatable in a presidential year. He only got 58% against Amanda Renteria this year, which is the same percentage he got against the awful John Hernandez in 2012 even though his percentage should've been way higher this year. He's probably one of the most vunerable Republicans in 2014.

Disagree. He rather successfully paints himself as pragmatic moderate conservative. And without Obama or other minority candidate for President turnout among minorities will still be lower then in 2008 and 2012. Obama is a very polarizing figure: a lot of whites (respecially in the South) viscerally hates him, a lot of minorities - adore.

[smoltchanov]

All such lists (and my own too) have at most 40 (most likely - 35-37) Republicans as "targets". To win 30 of them and not lose anything - you need an extremely big Democratic wave for that. Like in 2008. Especially with present day polarization and gerrymandered districts. IMHO - less then 5% chances for that. The best way for Democrats (again - IMHO) - concentrate on Governor elections in 2018, take active role in redistricting process in 2021 and 2022, and then - well, then it;s possible. No sooner.

[IceSpear]

It's also worth noting that it's very possible Democrats could bomb recruiting in many of these forty or so hypothetically vulnerable seats. In order for Democrats to take the House, it will require a gigantic wave which puts seats previously thought safe in play (some examples: CA-39, CA-49, CO-03, FL-07, IL-06, KS-03, MN-03, VA-04...and plenty more in this "wave tier" if you look hard enough), and is big enough to bust the Republican gerrymanders in states like NJ, MI, PA, and OH.

[Beezer]

There is no path towards a DEM house majority that does not include another Southern secession.

[Orser67]

Maybe something like this after the 2022 elections. This assume some retirements.

1)Pick up one seat in each of CO, IA, ME, NH, NJ, NV, and WA. Pick up two seats in IL, and three seats in NY. (D+12 total)

2)Win/keep control of several gubernatorial seats and draw more favorable maps. (D+21 total)
FL (+1 House seat after redistricting): 15 R-13 D (D+4)
GA (+1): 7-7 (D+3)
MI (-1): 7-7 (D+2)
NC: 7-6 (D+3)
OH (-1): 8-7 (D+3)
PA (-1):  9-8 (D+3)
VA: 6-5 (D+2)
WI: 4-4 (D+1)